Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Orange juice climbs as hurricane season approaches

By Jack Scoville


General Comments: Futures closed higher in light volume trading. No one wants to sell much with the most active part of the hurricane season just in front of them. The tropics remain quiet for now. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers and storms are reported and conditions are said to have improved in almost the entire state. Ideas are that the better precipitation will help trees fight the greening disease. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather, and there are reports of stress to trees and the potential for lower production.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers. Temperatures will average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 143.00, 141.50, and 140.00 September, with resistance at 147.00, 148.00, and 149.00 September.


General Comments: Futures moved lower as traders worry about demand, especially from China. It was a quiet session. Temperatures are warmer again in Texas and it has been dry. Conditions in Alabama, Mississippi, and Missouri are better and these states will see some showers this week as temperatures are somewhat cooler. It is possible that futures can continue to work lower over time as demand has turned soft and as the weather is getting better in almost all US production areas. Weather for Cotton still appears good in India, Pakistan, and China.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see showers off and on all week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will see dry weather this week and maybe some showers in the north. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA spot price is now 80.71 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.152 million bales, from 0.160 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 85.00, 84.30, and 84.00 October, with resistance of 86.00, 86.50, and 87.00 October.


General Comments: Futures were lower in all markets on follow through selling as almost all of the Coffee areas in Brazil escaped major damage. It is just too hard to get a lot of loss as most of the Coffee production has left Parana for warmer climates. The rain has stopped and warmer temperatures are in the forecast so speculators seem comfortable about selling again. Coffee appears to be available in Central America despite the Roya as farmers and mills start to clear inventories before the next harvest. Robusta prices were lower in sympathy with the other markets and with little news to affect prices. There are forecasts for a lot of rain to hit Southeast Asia Coffee areas this week, but no one appears concerned. Chart trends are mixed, but Price action is weak. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America. Central America crops are seeing better rains tan in the last couple of weeks. Colombia is still reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are slightly lower today and are about 2.755 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 118.32 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 120.00, 119.00, and 118.00 September, and resistance is at 127.00, 129.00, and 132.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1880 and 1820 September. Support is at 1875, 1850, and 1820 September, and resistance is at 1925, 1950, and 2000 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 143.00, 140.00, and 137.00 September, and resistance is at 146.00, 151.00, and 153.00 September.


General Comments: Futures closed higher in New York and higher in London. Speculators are still very short in this market and have decided to cover some of these positions as short term trends have turned up. There was some comercial buying noted as well as futures have held. Not much has changed otherwise in Sugar. Some buying has been noted in reaction to the falling Indian Rupee that makes it harder to believe that the country will export much. Many expect production to be higher overall in Brazil due to a record Sugarcane production, and countries like Thailand and India also expect more production this year. Less production of Sugar beets is reported from Russia and Ukraine as farmers there elected to plant more grains.

Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and warm temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1700, 1750, and 1770 October. Support is at 1650, 1615, and 1595 October, and resistance is at 1715, 1740, and 1750 October. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 479.00, 473.00, and 468.00 October, and resistance is at 489.00, 491.00, and 496.00 October.


General Comments: Futures closed lower on speculative long liquidation as short term chart trends turned down. There are reports of increased rains in Ivory Coast, and the weather remains generally good in Africa. Ghana and Nigeria would appear to have perhaps even a little too much rain right now. Temperatures are moderate. Production ideas are increasing. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. However, more rain than normal is in the forecast for production areas and might damage crops. Price action is weak and the market has made a short term top.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.792 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2220 September. Support is at 2250, 2230, and 2210 September, with resistance at 2330, 2380, and 2440 September. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1525 and 1470 September. Support is at 1535, 1515, and 1505 September, with resistance at 1575, 1590, and 1610 September.

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