Friday, December 2, 2011

New Stock Markert Cycle is Bearish for the Year-End

The up sloping Head and Shoulders pattern had successfully decline to its target of 1160.00. Normally head and shoulders neckline's are not recrossed once they are violated. However, up sloping Broadening Wedge formations have a 7% probability of an incursion back into the formation. This is one of those rare incursions.

The only model suggests that the final wave five of c may go as high as 1288.67. Elliott Wave relationships suggest a top at 1279.00. What we now have is a smallish wave (i) and an oversized wave (ii).

The next opportunity for cycle turn is Monday morning. The low on November 25 is 1 1/2 daily pi cycles early, which is outside the normal range for a trading cycle low. For example, the October 4 low came one half pi cycle early.

However, the cycles were calling for a Master Cycle low between November 20 and November 29. It appears that the Master Cycle was on time. This Master Cycle is not the dominant cycle, but will have to keep an eye on it as we go and 2012.

In the meantime, I am still expecting a new low by December 8. That new low should take up the new head and shoulders neckline at 1158.67 and with it the October 4 low at 1074.77. Under the new cycle regime, it appears that we may get a bounce into options expiration week, ending December 16. However, that bounce may fail and produce a very nasty year end for equities.

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