Sunday, February 7, 2010

A proposito della situazione Iraniana ...

Intelligence Guidance (Special Edition): Watching Iran for a Breakpoint

Iranian opposition supporters demonstrate at Tehran University on Dec. 7Editor’s Note: The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.
Related Special Topic Pages
The Iranian Nuclear Game
U.S.-Iran Negotiations
Events in Iran will dominate the next several days. We’d like to take a step back and examine the multiple Iran-related crises we see building in parallel to each other, despite the numerous unknowns that remain.
 Domestic turmoil in Iran appears to be nearing a breakpoint. Clearly, the Iranian opposition protests that grew out of the June presidential election debacle have not lost their steam. The 10-day Shiite commemoration of Muharram has now provided the anti-regime protesters with an occasion to exploit the religious fervor associated with the martyrdom of Imam Husayn ibn Ali at the Battle of Karbala in A.D. 680, a potent symbol for those who view themselves as martyrs in resisting the regime. The recent death of Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, one of the rare clerical opponents to the regime, has only added more fuel to the fire.

Sporadic clashes have broken out in Qom and Isfahan provinces, with reports of the homes of senior dissident ayatollahs being targeted and their supporters being tear gassed and beaten by Basij militiamen and plainclothes security personnel. These clashes are escalating in the lead-up to Ashura, the 10th and final day of Muharram which falls on Dec. 27 this year. Emotions will be running high on Ashura, and opposition protesters are planning to hold demonstrations in major cities across Iran, a classic example of the lethal cocktail of religion and politics.
The demonstrations already are reaching unacceptable levels for the regime. Thus far, the regime has used a variety of intimidation tactics to try and shut the protests down, but it also has exercised restraint to avoid triggering a greater backlash. In essence, the regime has done enough to enrage the opposition but not enough yet to terrify the opposition into standing down.
Typically, when regimes reach this point, they lay the groundwork for the imposition of martial law. Doors are kicked in, purges ensue, media blackouts are enforced and dissidents are silenced. The regime has done many of these things already but not yet to the degree that would successfully intimidate the opposition. There is, of course, a great risk of backlash in imposing such a crackdown, especially during such a sensitive religious holiday. The regime has thus far been careful not to exacerbate rifts within the regime and security apparatus. While a martial law situation would carry substantial risk of blowback, it would be designed to suppress those rifts through brute force.
When government officials impose martial law it is almost always because there is a split in the regime. The split becomes dangerous to the rival faction. When that faction realizes accommodation is impossible, it has three choices. First, it can accept the split and its consequences. Second, it can turn over power. Third, it can crush opponents. From Burma to Saddam Hussein’s Iraq to Argentina, this is a common process. When the pressures become overwhelming, the faction controlling the largest force changes the discussion from political to security. Men who were once enormously powerful are killed, imprisoned, “disappeared” or exiled. The most prominent leader, facing death, can choose capitulation. Such coups have better chances of success when one faction has powerful military support.
While STRATFOR does not have any clear indication yet that the regime is intending to impose some form of martial law, we are keeping the possibility in mind. In examining this possibility, we keep coming back to a statement by Iranian Intelligence Minister Heydar Moslehi on Dec. 22 that the regime has identified “80 foreign institutes, foundations, and funds that are active” in the opposition protests, including one with a $1.7 billion budget. The Iranian government regularly claims a foreign hand is behind domestic unrest, but this is different. By claiming it has identified specific foreign institutions underwriting the opposition, the regime is providing itself with the justification to declare any member of the opposition an enemy of the state in a martial law-type scenario.
As the internal unrest escalates within Iran, pressures also are building on the external front. The U.S. administration already has signaled that it may extend the deadline for Iran to negotiate over its nuclear program to at least mid-January 2010. U.S. and Iranian sources have reported a surge in backchannels between Washington and Tehran, with rumors circulating of Sen. John Kerry attempting to work out some sort of compromise behind the scenes. At the same time, Iran is sending holiday greetings to U.S. President Barack Obama while throwing out proposal after proposal after proposal to resolve the nuclear dispute.
Even as Iran is playing to its domestic constituency by flatly rejecting the notion of U.S.-set deadlines, it is doing enough both publicly and through backchannels to provide cover to the Russians, Chinese, Japanese, Germans and anyone else opposed to sanctions to make the argument for continued diplomacy. As long as Iran shows that it’s not walking away from negotiations, the harder it will be for the United States to build and a coalition against Iran. U.N Security Council members have announced that they will push any discussion on Iran to at least mid-January 2010 and were careful to avoid specifying whether that discussion would entail sanctions, indicating that Iran’s moves on the diplomatic front are thus far bearing fruit.
But Iran also cannot afford to take its eyes of Israel, which intends to hold the U.S. administration to its December deadline and its promise to take meaningful action in neutralizing Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Sanctions are not considered meaningful action by Israel, especially without the Russians and Chinese on board. At the same time, Iran may be calculating for now that the United States will restrain Israel if Israel can’t carry out a successful military strike on its own. The Iranians therefore want the United States to think long and hard about the Iranian reaction to such a strike. In addition to mine warfare in the Strait of Hormuz and terrorist attacks by Hezbollah and Hamas, the United States has been served a recent reminder of the damage Iran can do in Iraq. The Iran-Iraq spat over the Dec. 18 Iranian incursion and occupation of an Iraqi oil well is far from over, and now appears to be escalating as Iraq’s sectarian government is fragmenting over how to deal with the provocation.
Between the internal unrest in Iran, tensions escalating over the nuclear program and the ongoing border dispute with Iraq, the Iranian regime has its hands full in maneuvering between these building crises. A number of oddities linking these three issues also have begun surfacing in the past 36 hours in Iran and Iraq that warrant greater scrutiny in this tension-filled environment. STRATFOR will be watching developments closely in the coming days for any triggers that could signal a breakpoint.

Possibili Set Up

Venerdì scorso si sono consolidati alcuni set up operativi su alcuni Metalli, in particolare su Gold e Palladium. Prestare attenzione al possibile rimbalzo del settore. Per i due mercati in questione si dovrebbe entrare in acquisto alla rottura del massimo della barra realizzata venerdì 5 Febbraio, e contestuale assunzione dello Stop Loss da porre sotto i rispettivi minimi della medesima barra. Seguiremo l'eventuale sviluppo di questi trades su questo Blog.

Ninja Forex

Continua il buon comportamento del nostro trading system Ninja Forex. Come si può notare sulla chart allegata, sta interpretando nel migliore dei modi l'attuale ribasso dell'Ero nei confronti del Dollaro. L'ambizioso obiettivo del trade in corso è posto a 1.3200 c.a., e credo non sia irraggiungibile alla luce dell'attuale situazione macro dell'area Euro.

In ogni caso questo è un trading system robusto ed affidabile, che lavora su un orizzonte temporale di breve, con trades che durano mediamente poco più di dieci giorn.

Filtriamo l'intraday con il TRIN

Per cercare di migliorare o stabilizzare i risultati dei trading systems intraday, o della propria operatività discrezionale intraday, si applicano spesso alle stesse dei filtri operativi con l'intento di migliorare la qualità dei segnali e di tutto l'impianto operativo in essere. Il migliore di questi filtri è senz'altro il TRIN ($TRIN), che sta per "The Trading Index". Il TRIN è un indicatore inventato da Richard Arms nel 1967 per misurare e valutare le forze interne al mercato. Tradotto in numeri il TRIN è il rapporto tra Titoli Rialzisti e Titoli Ribassisti, diviso il raporto tra Volumi Titoli Riialzisti e Volumi Titoli Ribassisti. Riporto di seguito la formula:

                                      Titoli Rialzisti / Titoli Ribassisti
                TRIN = ---------------------------------------------------------
                            Volume Titoli Rialzisti / Volume Titoli Ribassisti

In pratica il TRIN ci da un'indicazione estremamente utile ed importante, ci dice cioè chi ha il sopravvento in quel momento tra compratori e venditori all'interno di un determinato paniere di titoli. Questo fornisce al trader che opera sul breve un'informazione basilare, e cioè qual'è la direzione del mercato. Come per tutti gli altri strumenti che misurano in vario modo l'andamento dei prezzi, anche il TRIN non è infallibile, ma rispetto a tutti gli altri, se ben interpretato, ha margini d'errore veramente piccoli.

I due elementi principali del TRIN che ne offrono un'interpretazione facile ed immediata sono la direzione dello stesso ed il suo valore assoluto. In pratica se il mercato scende il TRIN sale, e vice versa, inoltre un TRIN sopra 1.00 segnala un mercato più o meno debole, sotto 1.00 segnala un mercato più o meno forte. Approfondento suddetti concetti un TRIN sopra 1.00 ed in salita segnala un mercato in cui stanno avendo il sopravvento i venditori, sotto 1.00 ed in discesa segnala un mercato in cui stanno avendo il sopravvento i compratori.

Se analizziamo le due chart allegate, le info sopra esposte risulteranno più chiare e di facile assimilazione.  Nella prima chart ho evidenziato la correlazione tra la direzione del mercato e quella del TRIN, e vi si può facilmente notare che il TRIN segnala alla perfezione qual'è la direzione presa dal mercato. Nella seconda chart ho riportato ad esempio un trade realizzato su Mini Nasdaq, applicando suddetti concetti su una chart a 3 minuti. Qui si evidenzia come le divergenze presenti sui prezzi e sull'RSI siano egregiamente confermate sia dalla direzione del TRIN, sia dal suo valore assoluto.

Esistono poi altri modi di interpretare il comportamento del TRIN, ma i concetti sopra esposti sono più che sufficienti per poter affrontare il trading intraday con un prezioso alleato in grado di migliorare sensibilmente sia le prestazioni dei trading systems, sia quelle di qualsiasi altra metodica di tipo discrezionale.

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