Friday, May 6, 2011

+ 6.23 % Also In April! + 29.59 % In 2011 With Our Galaxy Portfolio Systems!

Nella sottostante tabella sono raffigurate le equity line mensili dei trading systems che compongono il nostro portfolio systems Galaxy ed il riassunto MTM dell’operativit√† dal Novembre 2009. Galaxy chiude con un ottimo risultato anche il mese di Aprile, dopo un equivalente risultato nel mese di Gennaio e Febbraio, portando a 29.59 % la performance del 2011. Quello appena chiuso √® il settimo risultato utile consecutivo a livello mensile dopo la breve pausa alla fine dell’estate dello scorso anno. L’equity continua a svilupparsi in maniera armonica mantenendo un’inclinazione positiva e costante grazie all’elevata diversificazione all’interno del portfolio. I risultati storici di Galaxy Portfolio System sono disponibili ai seguenti link: http://www.box.net/shared/static/nz7u0ztnbp.xls, http://box.net/shared/b9cg6kfa6s. I risultati dei singoli trading systems sono a disposizione al seguente link: http://www.box.net/shared/5vajnzc4cp.

Richiedi la demo gratuita di 30 giorni di Galaxy Combined Portfolio Systems 

In the table below you can see the monthly equity line of the trading systems that make our Galaxy portfolio systems and the MTM performance summary since November 2009. Galaxy ends with a good result also the month of April, after a similar result in the month of January and February, bringing the performance to 29.59 % in 2011. One just closed is the seventh consecutive positive months after the brief pause at the end of the summer last year. The equity continues to grow in harmony while maintaining an upward slope and steady thanks to high diversification within the portfolio. Historical results of Galaxy Combined Portfolio System are available at the following links: http://www.box.net/shared/static/nz7u0ztnbp.xls, http://box.net/shared/b9cg6kfa6s. Historical results of single trading systems are available at the following link: http://www.box.net/shared/5vajnzc4cp.

Request a free demo of 30 days of Galaxy Combined Porolio Systems
 

Galaxy Risultati Aprile


Equity Line Trades, Giornaliera e Mensile di Galaxy / Trades, Daily and Monthly Galaxy Equity Line                                 Free Demo Available
Galaxy Trades Galaxy Time Galaxy Mensile Galaxy Demo2


Performance MTM Mensile di Galaxy Portfolio System con un capitale iniziale di $ 200.000
Monthly MTM Performance of Galaxy Combined Portfolio System with $ 200K initial capital


  Jan
  Feb
Mar
Apr 
May
Jun 
Jul  
Aug
Sep
Oct 
Nov 
Dec 
2009










1.19 %
2.90 %
2010
(4.28 %)
24.49 %
2.99 %
1.76 %
15.62 %
4.35 %
10.60 %
(0.41 %)
(4.73 %)
1.75 %
12.80 %
1.50 %
2011
7.54 %
7.75 %
8.06 %
6.23 %









Galaxy Risultati Mensili image

Your diversification strategy is working correctly?
The diversification is a management technique that mixes a wide variety of investments within a portfolio. The main benefit of adding managed futures to a balanced portfolio is the potential to decrease portfolio volatility. Risk reduction is possible because managed futures can trade across a wide range of global markets that have virtually no long-term correlation to most traditional asset classes. Moreover, managed futures funds generally perform well during adverse economic or market conditions for stocks and bonds, thereby providing excellent downside protection in most portfolios.

The diversification between assets
The diversification between assets that have low correlation between them improves the overall performance of our investments for the same risk, thus reducing our exposure to risk decreases as the so-called "specified risk" linked to a single class of financial products. Basically, if you only held the shares, the result of your trading / investment is overly tied to the fortunes of a particular financial instrument for which you are running too high a risk. A well-diversified portfolio asset class is one of the major components that create the optimal portfolio. Read "The Art Of Asset Allocation" and "Top 10 Rules Of Portfolio Diversification".

The diversification within an asset
Concentrating investments in individual products or securities, you are exposed to a type of risk that can not be controlled, and the risk becomes uncertainty, which is something that is incalculable. is possible, even in this case, reduce the specific risks by trading or investing, for example, not a single product but a basket of products that represents a very large share of the market. Read "The Art Of Asset Allocation" and "Top 10 Rules Of Portfolio Diversification".

The diversification of trading methods
It combines the use of different methods of trading not correlated to improve the relationship between profit and maximum loss. The low correlation between different methods tends to reduce overall losses due to the combined performance of two or more trading systems. It is therefore one of the most effective ways to improve the performance of our investments while reducing risk. Read "The Art Of Asset Allocation" and "Top 10 Rules Of Portfolio Diversification".

The diversification of the trading system parameters
Is to use, within the same trading system, of different sets of parameters. Assuming that a trading account manage an adequate capital for diversification, it is better to diversify sets of parameters rather than making multiple contracts with the same set of parameters. The diversification of the set of parameters helps to minimize risk and strengthen our ability to remain disciplined and consistent psychological application of the trading system. Read "The Art Of Asset Allocation" and "Top 10 Rules Of Portfolio Diversification"

TOGETHER TO WIN: GALAXY PORTFOLIO SYSTEMS
Our goal is to generates significant medium term capital growth independent of stock and bond markets with simple and strict risk trading rules with maximum possible diversification. All our Portfolio Systems are designed assembled and managed with this philosophy. Due to the high diversification that characterizes them, our Portfolio Systems enhance the positive synergies of individual Trading Systems which are composed and dramatically reduce the overall risk. Diversification remains the cornerstone of modern portfolio theory.  Yet, during the financial crisis many "diversifying” investments readily followed the direction of the equity markets as they collapsed in 2008 and 2009. By contrast, our Portfolio Systems have just obtained their best resultsin 2008 thanks to the volatility of the period, the high diversification and the construction model that makes them independent of market equity and bond.



Material in this post does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation and do not constitute solicitation to public savings. Operate with any financial instrument is safe, even higher if working on derivatives. Be sure to operate only with capital that you can lose. Past performance of the methods described on this blog do not constitute any guarantee for future earnings. The reader should be held responsible for the risks of their investments and for making use of the information contained in the pages of this blog. Trading Weeks should not be considered in any way responsible for any financial losses suffered by the user of the information contained on this blog.

U.S. Economic Data to Ponder About Before the April Employment Report


The April employment report is scheduled for publication Friday, May 6. An increase of 190,000 payroll jobs and a steady reading for the unemployment rate (8.8%) is our forecast. The consensus forecast is an increase of 200,000 jobs and an unchanged jobless rate. Nonfarm payrolls increased 216,000 in March, with the private sector accounting for a gain of 230,000 jobs. Private sector hiring has risen at an impressive clip in the February-March period (average of 235,000 jobs). Against this backdrop, the jobless claims numbers for the week ended April 30 were unexpected. Initial jobless claims rose 43,000 to 474,000 and the prior week's estimate was raised to 431,000 from 429,000. 

The sharp increase in initial jobless claims reflects three one-off factors. Auto plant shutdown related to supply issues, due to the Japanese tsunami and earthquake, accounted for a part of the increase in initial jobless claims. The state of Oregon changed the extended benefits program which enabled new claimants. According to the Department of Labor, both these factors made relatively smaller contributions to the overall increase in initial jobless claims compared with the jump in claims in the state of New York. A large number of claims due to administrative factors in New York raised the total number of seasonally adjusted claims. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, increased 74,000 to 3.733 million. All said, these readings will not have any bearing on the April employment numbers because the survey period for the month's tally is April 10-16. However, unease about the labor market will not fade away in the near term and we need to see a quick reversal of the latest jump in initial jobless claims to reduce these concerns.

In related news, the productivity report for the first quarter shows a 1.6% annualized increase in U.S. productivity compared with a 2.9% gain in the prior quarter. On a year-to-year basis, there is a decelerating trend in place (see Chart 2). This is a cyclical feature which implies that productivity gains in the early stages of a recovery are expected, while a tapering off follows in the later stages of the business cycle. At the later stages of a business cycle, productivity gains are less supportive of economic activity, which leads to increased hiring to meet growing demand. 


These aspects of the cyclical nature of productivity are visible after seven quarters of economic growth (see Chart 3). The decelerating trend of productivity suggests that payrolls should expand in the quarters ahead as demand conditions improve.

There is another aspect of the productivity report which is less cited. This report contains the share of labor in total output. In the first quarter of 2011, labor's share held steady at 57.9% compared with the prior quarter. But, it is significantly lower than the historical average of 63.7% (see Chart 4). 


National income data offer other alternatives to measure labor's share in national output. Chart 5 depicts compensation to employees, from NIPA tables, as a percent of nominal GDP. In the first quarter of 2011, this measure of labor's share (54.5%) also held steady. It is noteworthy that this alternate gauge of labor's share also indicates drop from the historical average (56.6%) but the pace of decline is smaller compared with measure from the productivity report illustrated in Chart 4. 


Comparing chart 4 and 5, there are two points to note and one question that stands out. First, the share of labor declines in the early stages of a recovery. Second, both measures of labor share in national output posted declines at the end of the 2001-2007 business expansion. The key question is if the share of labor income will revert to the historical mean as the current business expansion continues.

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Today’s Silver Scandal


Under-30 silver traders weren’t alive to see the billionaire Hunt Brothers bankrupted by silver trades, and those under-45 years old probably never read about it. The Hunts’ silver debacle occurred after the “soybean caper,” but before the CFTC fined them $500,000 in a July 1981 out of court settlement for blatant violation of commodities laws in their attempt to corner beans. The Hunts had borrowed money to buy silver and leveraged themselves in silver futures in an attempt to corner the market. 

On March 14, 1980, the CFTC staff reported to their commissioners that the Hunt Brothers could handle their short-term losses as silver prices fell, because “they bought at low prices.” The CFTC was right about the low purchase prices (around $15 on average), but it was wrong when it thought the Hunt brothers could handle the losses.

Simultaneously, then Fed Chairman Paul Volcker instituted a new directive to U.S. banks as part of his anti-inflation policy. It was a “special restraint” on lending to speculators with holdings in commodities or precious metals. The banks knew better than to mess with Volcker, and they immediately closed the lending spigot to speculators in gold and silver.

Within three days, the Hunt brothers’ cash had nearly run out, and they couldn’t meet a margin call. Two days later, they had to deliver silver instead of cash in order to meet the margin call. Other speculators were having trouble raising cash against their silver, and prices dropped like a stone.

BACK TO THE FUTURE

Some believe the recent general commodities pullback was triggered by the series of CME margin hikes on silver within the past week, after the recent exponential run-up in silver prices. Whether or not that is true, holders of leveraged long commodities positions should have warily watched the action in the silver market. Some silver speculators may not have seen the margin hike as a constraint on lending, but it should have been a red flag for any speculator with a leveraged long position. Moreover, after silver markets closed, silver prices were getting “banged” lower in what looked like suspicious market manipulation.

Speculators rushed in as prices recently soared and rumors swirled that there will be a delivery default at the CME including one of the TBTF banks with a huge short position that it cannot cover. Are the rumors true? I don’t know since those in charge of investigating these matters haven’t put evidence in the public domain, even after a senior member of the CFTC claimed there was blatant silver manipulation.

The fastest way to collapse a recent run up in prices is to choke off the ability of those with leveraged long paper positions to raise cash. Another way is to rapidly hike margins; those with insufficient ready cash will be forced to liquidate. As they liquidate to meet margin calls, prices fall, and it creates a cycle which feeds on itself. I have no explanation for the recent ramp up in silver prices any more than I have an idea of where spot silver prices eventually hit bottom.

This isn’t the first time there has been extreme price action and volatility in the silver futures markets, and it will not be the last. If anyone thinks that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has the right stuff to regulate the commodities markets, look no further than its failure to check manipulation in the silver market.

The CFTC has the mandate to “regulate” tens of trillions of dollars in credit derivatives, but it is actually in the business of anti-regulation.

I highly recommend Stephen Fay’s book, BEYOND GREED (1982). A paperback version was titled THE GREAT SILVER BUBBLE (1982). It’s out of print but available through Amazon or Abe Books.

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The Institutional Gold Rush


I have worked on Wall Street my entire life, and one thing I've learned is that large institutional investors, like pension funds and endowments, rarely veer from the herd. They manage too much of other people's money to stick their necks out alone - if their investments go bad, at least they can point to everyone else who fared just as poorly.

For this reason, these funds are often lagging in their perception of crucial market changes - changes such as a doomed currency. While many of us are buying precious metals to hedge against the collapse of the dollar, gold and silver have been taboo investments on Wall Street for years. Fund managers are taught that gold is a "barbarous relic" - much better to stick with government bonds and blue-chip stocks. That's what everyone else is doing.

But there are early signs that the herd is changing direction.

THE CURRENCY THAT CAN'T BE PRINTED

In a remarkably under-reported story, the University of Texas' endowment fund - the second largest in the country, after Harvard's - added about half of a billion dollars worth of gold to its portfolio just this month, on top of the half-billion it purchased several months prior.

The university's endowment now owns a staggering 6,643 bars of bullion (664,300 ounces), which have already appreciated by over $40 million since mid-April when the bars were delivered to a dedicated HSBC-owned vault in New York City. Not a bad start.

Kyle Bass, the well-known Hayman Capital hedge fund manager and UT endowment board member, advised the university on the purchase. He stated his reasoning plainly: "Central banks are printing more money than they ever have, so what's the value of money in terms of purchases of goods and services? I look at gold as just another currency that they can't print any more of."

Apparently, the university agrees that sitting on a pile of fiat paper is an act of faith not befitting a prudent and enlightened institution.

AN INSTITUTIONAL AWAKENING

The purchase is certainly causing a few heads to turn.

Now that a major endowment has taken this step, other fund managers are going to be emboldened to follow through on their gut instincts. These are smart guys, after all; they are aware that although their funds may be posting nominal gains, they are losing much more in purchasing power. I'm sure many have privately bought precious metals, but now they have cover to do so professionally.

Perhaps the most interesting part of UT's billion-dollar repudiation of Fed Chairman Bernanke and his printing press, however, is that the fund demanded physical delivery of the bullion. While more commonplace in Europe, this is truly unprecedented for a stateside institution.

The delivery of physical bullion has at least two important implications. The first is that UT perceives gold to be a long-term strategy for wealth preservation, as opposed to a short-term speculation. The second is that UT must be somewhat concerned about the stability of financial markets in general, so it wants to own physical gold safely stored in a vault, as opposed to owning paper claims, shares of gold funds, or other instruments with counterparty risk.

HUGE RAMIFICATIONS

I have long recommended that investors hold at least 5-10% of their portfolios in physical precious metals. UT's $1 billion position represents roughly 5% of its $20 billion endowment, so they have reached my minimum recommendation - but likely have more buying to do.

As endowment after endowment decides to sell billions of Bernanke's dollars and diversify into gold, what might this do to the gold price? If these colossal funds start getting the idea that holding 5% of their portfolio in gold is more conservative and intelligent than holding the current average of 1%, what will this mean for gold demand? The answer is obvious and the ramifications huge.

ONE SMALL STEP FOR INSTITUTIONS, ONE GIANT LEAP FOR GOLD

If US university endowments were to increase their gold positions from the current average of 1% to an average of 5% of their portfolios, it would equal $20 billion, or roughly 400 metric tons of gold at today's spot price. This is significantly more than the entire yearly gold production of China, the world's largest producer.

Beyond endowments, private foundations in the US, with 2010 assets totaling nearly $600b, would similarly require nearly 600 metric tons of gold if they sought to hold 5% of their assets in the metal - almost twice China's yearly production.

And again, these are just US endowments and foundations; there's a whole world of demand beyond the borders - and we can't forget sovereign wealth funds (SFWs).

The largest SWF in the world, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, has assets worth over $600b alone. The second and third largest funds, Norway and Saudi Arabia, together constitute roughly a trillion dollars in assets.

GETTING IN BEFORE THE HERD

The point here is simple: the total investable funds around the world are immense relative to the size of the gold market. It's not hard to perceive what a simple move from 1% to 5% of the average institutional portfolio would do to the price of gold, and this why the University of Texas' bullion delivery is so important - it's a vivid indication that such a move is now taking place.

Gold remains widely neglected among the big-money players, but it's clear that they're beginning to come to terms with the US dollar's terrible prospects. After all, while fund managers don't want to veer from the herd, they also don't want to follow the herd off a cliff.

The University of Texas, with its billion-dollar stash of physical gold, is one institution that has finally seen the cliff. The physical delivery of this purchase exemplifies the severity of the threat that UT's endowment board perceives.

The average investor should recognize that there is little time left to purchase precious metals before substantial new demand drives the price of gold higher. A very small percentage change in large institutional investment is all that's required for massive gold price increases.

I believe we are on the cusp of a smart-money gold rush. It will drive gold to a record in real terms, even before retail investors join in. Though you may have missed the last decade of gains, there is still a chance to buy in before the stampede.

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Gold, Sources And Remedies Of Financial Instability


Excerpt: "The hour is late. At stake is the survival of the U.S. and world economy as we know it. Failure to act now would lead to a disaster comparable only to the collapse of the Roman Empire in the fifth century A.D. that was accompanied with a total breakdown of law and order, accompanied, significantly, by gold going into hiding."

Gold Bond: Life-Saver for the U.S. and World Economy

Antal E. Fekete

The financial instability that first surfaced with full force in 2008 is the result of a deteriorating condition in world finance going back 40 years. Worse still, that deterioration is continuing and threatens with an historically unprecedented world-wide credit collapse.

The watershed year was 1971. What made that year outstanding was not just the introduction of the so-called floating exchange rate system; but also the disappearance of the most potent and most reliable financial instrument of world finance. It was little noticed at the time and, if it is ever mentioned, it is being treated as a non-event. Yet the world can only dismiss its significance at its own peril. Academia that is supposed to study problems created by monetary experimentation, rather than alerting the public to the serious possible consequences of the omission, has been guilty of ignoring it.

The most potent financial instrument, the disappearance of which we are referring to, is the gold bond.

This pronouncement is immediately objected to by detractors of gold in the monetary system. Their objection is that the gold bond had disappeared from world finance much earlier: in the years 1931-35, and was no occasion for any major catastrophe in its wake. Rather, the word economy has gone on from one triumph to another without gold bonds ever since ¾ proving the inconsequential nature of their disappearance. However, this objection is not valid.

The truth of the matter is that the gold bond has survived the collapse of the gold standard and has played a most important albeit largely unrecognized role in world finance. Consider the fact that since January, 1934, the dollar has had a fixed value in terms of gold, based on the Treasury price of $35 per ounce of fine gold, and the U.S. government has continued to honor its international obligations at that rate. Moreover, this obligation was solemnly enshrined in several international treaties and confirmed by four sitting presidents. As a result, there is no gainsaying of the fact that U.S. Treasury paper in the hands of foreign governments and central banks directly, and in the hands of banks, financial institutions, and even ordinary citizens not under the jurisdiction of the U.S. indirectly, have continued to exist as gold bonds (or gold bills, as the case may be) after 1934.

The most important role the gold bond has played up until 1971 was this: it was the standard of credit whereby all other debt instruments were gaged. Through disintermediation substandard debt was eliminated, and the rise of the Debt Behemoth prevented.

Ignoring this fact is a major error that Academia has been and still is making. To continue to deny this fact leads to further grievous errors. There used to be a saying on Lombard Street, long since forgotten, that “there is only one thing that is safer and arguably more desirable than gold, namely, the promise of a government to pay gold”. In that spirit gold bonds were considered an “ultimate form of debt”, enforcing quality standards. Moreover, the gold bill was, along with gold, an ultimate extinguisher of debt. This instrument was destroyed on August 15, 1971. On that day gold was exiled from the international monetary system. Since that day the world has lacked an ultimate extinguisher of debt.

Any other means of payment, including Federal Reserve credit, however useful in international trade or otherwise, could not extinguish debt. It could only shift debt from one debtor to another. As long as there were gold bonds in existence, a Debt Behemoth could not rise and threaten world finance with destruction. Whenever total debt in the world approached the danger level, safety-conscious governments and banks quietly started converting their holdings of debt into gold bonds, thus squeezing marginal debt out of existence. This also explains the absence of a derivative tower and other unsafe financial constructions, instruments and practices such as mortgage-based bonds, prior to 1971.

We can say that world trade was financed and regulated by gold to the extent that the great trading houses abroad held gold bonds in their portfolio. In effect they were doing arbitrage between the gold bond market and the market for internationally traded merchandise. If the gold rate of interest (that is, the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds) rose, they sold out marginal merchandise from warehouses without reordering them, and invested the proceeds in gold bonds. If subsequently the gold rate of interest rates fell back, then they would sell the gold bond at a profit, and invest the proceeds in marginal merchandise, the trading of which out of their warehouses yielded better profit than that available from holding gold bonds. This arbitrage was real, continuous, and it kept international trade in good shape. Academia has missed this important arbitrage responsible for regulating world trade after World War II. It is also guilty of failing to point out that, without gold bonds world trade is clueless and will quickly start deteriorating. 

In 1971, by a stroke of the pen, gold bonds were stamped out of existence. World trade lost its guiding star. The floodgates of exorbitant debt creation were opened. Debt of dubious quality flooded the word, the soundness of which could no longer be gaged in the absence of gold bonds. This explains the origin of the debt tower, and the steady deterioration of the quality of its component parts. This process is still continuing. Worst of all, the series of financial crises in the world also continues and every one of them will be more devastating than the preceding one — unless something is done about it, and soon. In the absence of remedial measures now, the denouement will be fast in coming, and the momentum of the approaching avalanche will become overwhelming.

Remedies

Having made the correct diagnosis, the remedy readily presents itself. The gold bond should be brought back. In fact, there is presently a great latent demand for gold bonds in the world, as indicated by the high marketability U.S. Treasury bonds are still enjoying — something that cannot be justified on purely economic grounds in view of the net debt of the U.S. government and the persistence of the American trade and budget deficits. Make no mistake about it: the high marketability of the U.S. Treasury bonds is justified solely by the fact that there is still a residual hope that the U.S. government will, in its own self-interest as well as in the interest of the world economy, make them payable in gold at maturity, and will pay interest on them in gold before.

It is important that there is a convincing precedent in U.S. history for this. During the Civil War and its aftermath, the U.S. government continued to honor its debt, both as to principal and interest, paying them in the gold coin of the realm. To be able to do it, the government continued to levy import duties and excise taxes in gold to the exclusion of paper. The exchange rate between the gold dollar and the paper dollar (endearingly called the ‘greenback’ by their protagonists) was fluctuating. The lesson from this is that the government need not embrace a gold standard in order to enjoy the benefits offered by the gold bond.

There is no reason why the U.S. could not emulate the Civil War practice in the present crisis. Admittedly, it would take extensive research to work out the details. For example, the question arises how gold bonds can survive in a fiat paper money system (or how the fiat paper money system can prosper in an environment in which gold bonds exist and enjoy the highest prestige). At any rate, the intellectual resources to conduct such research are all at hand. If not residing in Academia, then, at least, they are scattered around in small discussion groups and can be accessed through the Internet. There is such a thing as “shadow research” offering sorely missed competition to mainstream economics on the gold question. 

The first obstacle that confronts the present effort by the U.S. government and the Fed to put the great financial crisis behind them is that it runs into Triffin’s Dilemma. Already in the early 1960’s Robert Triffin observed that the stated aims of increasing “world liquidity” and those of eliminating the U.S. budget deficit are contradictory. They cannot be simultaneously accomplished.

Likewise, the present effort to rein in the U.S. government deficit and reduce the outstanding government debt, while simultaneously increasing the stock of money through direct sales of government bonds by the Treasury to the Fed (euphemistically called QE 1 & 2) are contradictory. It is like trying to have one’s cake and eat it. On the one hand the Fed wants to inject more Federal Reserve credit into the payments system, while the “other hand”, the government, pretends to choke off the supply of the necessary collateral. 

Politicians, mainstream economists and financial journalists sing the praise of this scheme without realizing that it cannot be done. The two aims are contradictory, and the market will not be fooled by the prestidigitation.
Most mainstream economists have a vested interest in maintaining their anti-gold stance. Their prestige is committed to Keynes’ dictum that the gold standard (and, by implication, gold) is nothing but a ‘barbarous relic’. However, if they really believe in a goldless monetary system, then they should have nothing to fear in exposing their fiat paper scheme to competition with the gold bond. Hand-to-hand money will still be irredeemable under the suggested remedial action. The fact that this will cause the managers of fiat money to make their instrument deliver stellar performance so that people shall have no desire to dump paper in favor of gold is an added benefit. The remedial action proposed herein should not be seen as an attempt to return to the gold standard through the back door. The proposal is to allow the gold bond to discharge its natural function, to wit: weeding out bad debt, something irredeemable debt cannot do.

A great failing of monetary scholarship is the one-sided appraisal of the origin and subsequent evolution of the Federal Reserve System that came about as a result of six years of thorough study and public debate in the wake of the 1907 panic. It was not even remotely considered during that debate that the Fed coming off the drawing board ought to be an engine monetizing government debt. Just the opposite: the Fed was supposed to be a commercial paper system whereby self-liquidating bills of exchange would acquire ephemeral monetary privileges, facilitating the movement of semi-finished merchandise from the producer to the ultimate consumer. Nor was it thought possible during that debate that the monetary unit of the United States could be anything but the Constitutional double eagle gold coin. There was nothing sinister about the study and the debate. There was no conspiracy. It was all in the open.

The outcome, the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 was far from being a perfect document. It had many weak points and lots of room for improvement. But it was acceptable for the purpose of putting credit, such as existed within the United States, on a sound and enduring basis.

Mischief occurred after the Federal Reserve banks opened their door for business in 1914, about the same time when the war in Europe got started. Without much thinking, and in an obvious violation of the law and the neutrality of the country, the Administration of President Wilson committed the new banks to finance the allied war effort in Europe. The idea of self-liquidating credit was discarded; credit was created expressly to finance destruction. You cannot get further away from the ideal of self-liquidating credit than putting credit in the service of destroying life and property.

This takes us to the second remedy: restoration of self-liquidating credit. The idea that the central bank can calibrate the rate of debasement of the currency by adjusting the speed of the printing press is absurd. The notion that the Federal Open Market Committee can pick the optimal interest rate that will make the GDP grow, payrolls swell, and prices stabilize is equally absurd.

Commercial banks have historically existed not to ‘create’ credit but to ‘liquefy’ it. Commercial credit takes its origin in the handshake of two businessmen while one says to the other: “I’ll pay you for this shipment in 90 days”. The handshake later took the form of a real bill that had the advantage that it could be endorsed and passed on to a third party in payment for other maturing merchandise.

Thus the formula to solve the present crisis of instability and to fend off the threatening credit collapse is: Go back to gold bonds and real bills. Get real: adopt the best agent of credit there is in place of intrinsically worthless promises; substitute the real source of credit, the handshake of two businessmen, for the stroke of the banker’s pen.

The hour is late. At stake is the survival of the U.S. and world economy as we know it. Failure to act now would lead to a disaster comparable only to the collapse of the Roman Empire in the fifth century A.D. that was accompanied with a total breakdown of law and order, accompanied, significantly, by gold going into hiding.

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Pullback in precious metals, the right entry point

By Jeb Handwerger Editor

“One must take advantage of sell-offs in gold and silver miners; they are opportunities to get on board the secular bull market in precious metals.”

The long awaited healthy pullback has come. However, do not forget that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will continue devaluing the dollar (UUP) by keeping interest rates at all-time lows and continue quantitative easing as we have not seen a major improvement in unemployment and housing. We are also entering an election year in which central banks do not want to rile the equity markets. Just because the S&P (SPY) has been soaring does not mean the economy is improving. Easy money policies will continue for an extended period of time to fight against current economic weakness. This is an environment in which gold (UGL) and silver (AGQ) will benefit. We are currently seeing a massive inflationary environment globally that has caused political unrest in North Africa and the Middle East, and rising costs in key emerging economies such as China and South Korea.

We must be prepared for these current short-term corrections in precious metals because it will provide additional buying opportunities in gold (GLD), silver (SLV) bullion and mining stocks (GDX). The market will try to make you be complacent when you should be fearful, and make you scared when you should be enthusiastic.

I have mentioned that silver was 70% above the 200-day moving average, surpassing overhead resistance, reaching record levels on the oscillators and surpassing my late January technical targets. Silver has moved much faster and higher than I originally projected. I initially thought the move would last through May, but the speculative buying and short covering has caused silver to reach my target a few weeks ahead of schedule. Whenever these conditions occur, caution is merited as the odds of a shakeout have significantly increased. A healthy correction is necessary to maintain the long-term steady uptrend and provide secondary buypoints.

Major institutions raises cash and began selling into a rising market as the speculative fever reached a climax the last two weeks of April. When the consensus gets greedy, I get fearful. Since late January when my indicators turned bullish on precious metals and mining stocks, we have seen record investment demand in silver and gold bullion combined with short covering. Tremendous record volume in the silver market indicated a short-term buying hysteria. These frenzies in the precious metals markets are often followed by quick and violent corrections which we are currently witnessing to shakeout the Johnny Come Lately traders who get overaggressive in these rising markets. Investors were building up very aggressive and speculative positions. The conditions in silver have been setting up for a painful pullback.

A healthy correction is currently necessary to sustain the long-term steady uptrend in hard assets. Most investors do not realize that precious metals are in a long-term secular uptrend but there will be volatility with ebbs and flows. Silver is an extremely turbulent market which exceeds technical targets and momentum oscillators regularly. Silver blows very hot and very cold exceeding to the upside and the downside.

In late April, precious metals surpassed my late January target of $40 and the US dollar bearish sentiment which was reaching an extreme in late April. Silver exceeded upper trend channels and saw record volume, showing signs of a shakeout. I was very concerned that silver was overheating as the herd tried to force its way into this trade.

Whenever I have seen these parabolic moves, they have not ended well as the profit-taking begins and the investors who have overleveraged themselves get margin calls. I am not surprised at all about this painful shakeout.

Precious metals investors may be repositioning from bullion into mining stocks. This consolidation may be the catalyst to help the miners catch up with the performance of gold and silver bullion. Mining stocks have not yet seen the speculative levels that bullion has seen. The general public is now realizing that inflation and precious metal prices will be high for some time to come as Bernanke has no plans of exiting, but are reluctant to enter bullion at these pricey levels. Miners, especially junior explorers (GDXJ) are providing a discount to bullion. Inflation will continue for years to come yet this correction in the junior miners (GDXJ) indicates the public is still unaware of the basic fundamental and growth potential of this sector over then next decade especially when gold and silver find support.

This has been no surprise to my readers. I have said that there is no exit plan from the Fed. There is a concerted effort to devalue the US currency to pay back soaring debts. The US is broke and it can’t afford raising interest rates. Savers are getting swindled by leaders in Washington, which has used public taxpayer money to bail out corporations and banks. Americans are getting squeezed by soaring prices of basic goods, while their hard-earned savings are depreciating.

I have urged caution around initiating positions in gold or silver bullion as the trade was very crowded and at the end stages of its short-term move from late January through May. Remember, gold has a historic cycle to provide a sale every six months.

As gold and silver sell off, don’t forget the long-term uptrend will stay intact. Will you be ready for the next turning point in precious metals as the herd sells out during the panic?

I believe junior mining stocks (GDXJ) will catch up. Some people are concerned that some of the mining stocks that haven't moved yet should be sold while they're reaching long-term support and basing. I don’t believe so as they all provide leverage to falling currencies and rising demand from emerging economies. As these mining stocks sell off, I begin to look at the long-term fundamentals which have not changed. Perceptions from the herd change but the fundamentals in gold miners (GDX) do not. One must take advantage of sell-offs in gold and silver miners; they are opportunities to get on board the secular bull market in precious metals. I believe it is the best way to protect one’s assets during these times of growing record deficits and currency devaluations.

Oil futures slump again after brief bounce


LONDON (MarketWatch) — Crude futures dropped sharply to trade below $100 a barrel on Friday, a day after crude suffered its biggest loss in more than two years and sparked a widening of trading limits by the exchange operator. 

Light, sweet crude for June delivery /quotes/comstock/21n!f:cl\m11 CLM11 -2.68% fell $3.25, or 3.2%, to $96.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange during European trading hours. 

The decline extended a drop that took oil as low as $99.35 a barrel during the North American session, registering its biggest one-day percentage decline since April 20, 2009. 

Weak U.S. economic data and the selloff in other commodities weighed on the crude market.

Oil trader and energy-market expert Dan Dicker said crude’s fall was part of Thursday’s general commodities selloff, “starting with silver, and oil was the last to get it. It is great proof of just how much speculative money there was in the oil market.” 

“You’d expect it to kick back. There was a lot of margin selling going on. It’s proof of just how much stupid money there is in the oil game,” Dicker said. 

The sharp drop prompted exchange operator CME Group to expand its limits on how far oil can rise or fall during a session. 

CME raised the limit to $20 from the previous $10 level set for oil futures. The dive in heating-oil futures /quotes/comstock/21n!f:ho\m11 HOM11 -1.93% to their limit of 25 cents prompted the move, the exchange said. See report on CME’s changes to oil-trading limits. 

Heating oil for June delivery fell 8 cents, or 2.7%, to $2.81 a gallon. The contract fell 26 cents, or 8.1%, to $2.89 a gallon Thursday, its lowest settlement since Feb. 24, and the biggest one-day percentage drop since March 2009. 

Metals were also under pressure, a day after silver saw its largest one-day percentage drop since Dec. 1, 2008, and gold saw its biggest one-day percentage decline since mid-March. Read more about metal markets.

Gold and Silver Sell Offs Are Precious Metals Bull Market Investment Opportunities


"One must take advantage of sell-offs in gold and silver miners; they are opportunities to get on board the secular bull market in precious metals."

The long awaited healthy pullback has come. However, do not forget that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will continue devaluing the dollar (UUP) by keeping interest rates at all-time lows and continue quantitative easing as we have not seen a major improvement in unemployment and housing. We are also entering an election year in which central banks do not want to rile the equity markets. Just because the S&P (SPY) has been soaring does not mean the economy is improving. 

Easy money policies will continue for an extended period of time to fight against current economic weakness. This is an environment in which gold (UGL) and silver (AGQ) will benefit. We are currently seeing a massive inflationary environment globally that has caused political unrest in North Africa and the Middle East, and rising costs in key emerging economies such as China and South Korea.

We must be prepared for these current short-term corrections in precious metals because it will provide additional buying opportunities in gold (GLD), silver (SLV) bullion and mining stocks (GDX). The market will try to make you be complacent when you should be fearful, and make you scared when you should be enthusiastic.

I have mentioned that silver was 70% above the 200-day moving average, surpassing overhead resistance, reaching record levels on the oscillators and surpassing my late January technical targets. Silver has moved much faster and higher than I originally projected. I initially thought the move would last through May, but the speculative buying and short covering has caused silver to reach my target a few weeks ahead of schedule. Whenever these conditions occur, caution is merited as the odds of a shakeout have significantly increased. A healthy correction is necessary to maintain the long-term steady uptrend and provide secondary buypoints.

Major institutions raises cash and began selling into a rising market as the speculative fever reached a climax the last two weeks of April. When the consensus gets greedy, I get fearful. Since late January when my indicators turned bullish on precious metals and mining stocks, we have seen record investment demand in silver and gold bullion combined with short covering. Tremendous record volume in the silver market indicated a short-term buying hysteria. These frenzies in the precious metals markets are often followed by quick and violent corrections which we are currently witnessing to shakeout the Johnny Come Lately traders who get overaggressive in these rising markets. Investors were building up very aggressive and speculative positions. The conditions in silver have been setting up for a painful pullback.

A healthy correction is currently necessary to sustain the long-term steady uptrend in hard assets. Most investors do not realize that precious metals are in a long-term secular uptrend but there will be volatility with ebbs and flows. Silver is an extremely turbulent market which exceeds technical targets and momentum oscillators regularly. Silver blows very hot and very cold exceeding to the upside and the downside.

This is a chart I sent my readers April 22, 2011.


I needed to be careful about this move in silver in late April surpassing my late January target of $40 and the US dollar bearish sentiment which was reaching an extreme in late April. Silver exceeded upper trend channels and saw record volume, showing signs of a shakeout. I was very concerned that silver was overheating as the herd tried to force its way into this trade.

Whenever I have seen these parabolic moves, they have not ended well as the profit-taking begins and the investors who have overleveraged themselves get margin calls. I am not surprised at all about this painful shakeout.

Precious metals investors may be repositioning from bullion into mining stocks. This consolidation may be the catalyst to help the miners catch up with the performance of gold and silver bullion. Mining stocks have not yet seen the speculative levels that bullion has seen. The general public is now realizing that inflation and precious metal prices will be high for some time to come as Bernanke has no plans of exiting, but are reluctant to enter bullion at these pricey levels. Miners, especially junior explorers (GDXJ) are providing a discount to bullion. Inflation will continue for years to come yet this correction in the junior miners (GDXJ) indicates the public is still unaware of the basic fundamental and growth potential of this sector over then next decade especially when gold and silver find support.

This has been no surprise to my readers. I have said that there is no exit plan from the Fed. There is a concerted effort to devalue the US currency to pay back soaring debts. The US is broke and it can't afford raising interest rates. Savers are getting swindled by leaders in Washington, which has used public taxpayer money to bail out corporations and banks. Americans are getting squeezed by soaring prices of basic goods, while their hard-earned savings are depreciating.

I have urged caution around initiating positions in gold or silver bullion as the trade was very crowded and at the end stages of its short-term move from late January through May. Remember, gold has a historic cycle to provide a sale every six months.

As gold and silver sell off, don't forget the long-term uptrend will stay intact. Will you be ready for the next turning point in precious metals as the herd sells out during the panic?

I believe junior mining stocks (GDXJ) will catch up. Some people are concerned that some of the mining stocks that haven't moved yet should be sold while they're reaching long-term support and basing. I don't believe so as they all provide leverage to falling currencies and rising demand from emerging economies. As these mining stocks sell off, I begin to look at the long-term fundamentals which have not changed. 

Perceptions from the herd change but the fundamentals in gold miners (GDX) do not. One must take advantage of sell-offs in gold and silver miners; they are opportunities to get on board the secular bull market in precious metals. I believe it is the best way to protect one's assets during these times of growing record deficits and currency devaluations.

See the original article >>

Silver Price Forecast to Trend to $83


Though Markets often Rhyme they rarely repeat: 

With everyone and their grandmother calling a blow-off top in Silver we thought it prudent to present an alternate perspective. 


Above is a continuation chart of Silver dating back prior to the Hunt-Brother top at 50.36 in January of 1980. Though at first glance the parabolic rise into the 1980 high looks similar to our current advance in 2011, they are by no means the same.

The big bang from 1975-1980 was “J” shaped meaning that there was at first a slow unassuming rise then a more abrupt and persistent short-lived parabolic explosion, which came out of nowhere. The rally from 10.70 in September of 1979 to the 50.36 print high in January of 1980 took all of 5-months to blow its top.

In contrast, the rally from the November 2001 low of $4.01 is defined by distinctive wave structure and consolidation periods. Rather than a short-lived five-month rocket launch without notice, the current move in Silver has lasted for ten years, and has telegraphed its intentions rather generously along the way.

The large uptrend channel drawn from the prospective cycle-degree [A] and [B] waves of 1980 and 2001 is divided by a dashed mid-channel.

The monthly bar segment presented above right shows the gap-down open and subsequent decline in May breaching this mid-channel line of would-be support. In light of its failure, there is another dashed mid-channel of support resting just below near the $35 level.


Above is the weekly continuation chart of Silver from its most recent $8.53 print low in 2008. Consolidating to the tune of 58% from its journey north of $20 in March of 2008, Silver resumed an otherwise orderly advance in October of that same year.

Two years later in November of 2010, Silver broke above 26.70, which is the halfway point between its $3.05 low and the historic Hunt-Brother high. After printing a high of $31.09 in early 2011, it pulled back nearly 14% and retested the milestone within the month and began what many now perceive as a three-month parabolic blow-off top just shy of the historic high.

As noted in the long-term monthly chart that began this article, Silver has at least two remaining upside targets that are quite viable going forward. In our contrary technical assessment, Silver maintains an upside price target window that opens at 52.58, and closes at 82.91. The general timeframe for that window spans from June 2011 through 2021.

If such targets are to be achieved, the wave count resident in our weekly bar chart above is the count most likely to be in force. Such a count suggests that the recent print high was that of an intermediate (3) wave, and the current move down will don the eventual (4) wave label.

Given that fifth waves tend to extend in the commodity arena, and that Silver may be approaching only that of an intermediate 4th wave decline, one must not ignore the possibility that Silver’s primary 5th wave advance may jettison the poor man’s gold to $82 dollars per ounce. At that stage, a blow-off rally might then witness Silver lunge for the $100 mark and possibly fail.

Whatever you do, don’t bet the ranch on another 21-year bear market following Silver’s April 2011 print high just south of $50.

See the original article >>

Sugar price correction 'could be close to ending'

by Agrimoney.com

The sugar price correction may be close to running its course, Rabobank analysts said, even as futures in the sweetener set a fresh eight-month low amid a broad commodities liquidation.
New York's near-term futures contract, for July delivery, at one point hit 20.50 cents a pound on Thursday, down 40% from a 30-year high hit in February as the sell-off in raw materials continued.
However, while prices could fall below 20 cents a pound, such a fall would not be "sustainable", Rabobank analysts said, ruling out a drop to the levels of 13 cents a pound reached a year ago.
"Despite the current downward inertia, further price corrections could be tempered."
'Compelling case to buy'
One reason for hope was the dearth of speculators with long positions in the crop, meaning pressure from liquidation on that front was limited.
The net long position in New York sugar futures held by managed funds, a proxy for speculators, has fallen by 37% in five weeks to the lowest since March 2008, regulatory data show.
While speculators may continue to sell, they may come up against increasing buying pressure from investors viewing lower prices as a "buying opportunity".
"As many investors want to take advantage of emerging market demand in commodities and use commodities to hedge against inflation and currency fluctuations, there could be a compelling case to buy sugar," Rabobank said.
Incentive for an incentive
A second was the shape of the futures curve which, in pricing March 2012 futures well above those of October next year, was suggesting that "the market may be more concerned about supply next year", in providing an incentive for buyers to delay purchases.
The relative pricing "suggests that while supply is currently abundant, worries persist about the fundamental balance sheet", the bank said.
Indeed, high prices were needed to encourage sugar output in 2012-13 to underpin supplies.
"It is important that prices do not fall below levels that would discourage sugar production, whether that means the planting of sunflower instead of beet in Europe, cavassa instead of cane in Thailand, or production of ethanol instead of sugar in Brazil," Rabobank said.
"In our view, the low end‐price level that will ensure adequate inventive for suppliers in the new year is near the 20 cents a pound level."
'End of a bull run'
The decline in sugar prices has been attributed to improved hopes for supplies, with Thailand, the world's second-ranked sugar exporter, expected to achieve record output of 9.0m tonnes in 2010-11.
Indonesia is forecasting a 16% rise to 2.6m tonnes in sugar output, while top exporter Brazil is gearing up for peak production.
ABN Amro said that the sugar market "has the feeling of coming to the end of a bullish period".
New York's July contract stood at 21.00 cents in late deals, down 1.6% on the day. London white sugar for August closed down 1.7% at $582.30 a tonne.

See the original article >>

Evening markets: crops smashed by collapse of oil and metals

by Agrimoney.com

It could have been worse for agricultural commodities.
They could have included tin, which lost 7%, or silver, which plunged for a fifth successive day, losing more than 20% in that period, and putting it on course for its worst week in 28 years.
Oil tumbled nearly 9%, taking New York crude back below $100 a barrel, helping take the CRB commodities index down 4.9%, its worst performance for at least two years.
Judged in comparison, the falls in crops, even the 4.9% plunge in cocoa, were positively benign.
'Very negative'
The cause of the slump were in part the same as in the last few sessions – concern over faltering demand for raw materials in the face of tighter economic policy, as central banks get to grips with inflation.
However, Thursday gave investors two other reasons to worry. One was a weak report on US jobless claims, which surprised economists by rising to an eight-month high of 479,000.
"This is a very negative number," Darrell Holaday at Country Futures said.
The other was a jump in the dollar, which soared 1.4% against a basket of currencies, in part on a covering of short positions, following its drop to a three-year low, fuelled by a "flight to safety" theme, with the greenback, for all its faults, viewed as a safe haven.
And as if a stronger greenback on its own isn't bad enough for dollar-denominated assets, making them less competitive as exports, the revival also involved the unwinding of a popular "long commodities, short the dollar" trade.
'Liquidation day'
Mr Holaday put it so: "It has been a liquidation day in the entire commodity complex."
US Commodities said: "General commodity selling continues. This has cast a negative blanket over all the markets."
Dave Hightower at Hightower report said: "A patently bearish mentality remains in place. The fact that severe technical damage has been forced on a number of charts adds to the liquidation pressure.
You get the picture. "The markets do not seem to be in a position to embrace anything positive."
'Planting situation is grim'
But there were at least willing to think less negatively about agricultural commodities, given the weather challenges that Canadian and US producers still face to get their spring crops in the ground.
"The next 10 days will still remain a challenge for the corn farmers across large swathes of the Corn Belt and northern Plains, with rains and mostly below-normal temperatures leaving only few opportunities for drying of fields," Benson Quinn Commodities said.
The problem is in the main the eastern Corn Belt, where WxRisk.com said that weather models showed that it "never stays completely dry and the temperatures remain quite cool through the 11-15 day [period ahead].
"In short it does not look favourable for good drying east of the Mississippi river."
Matthew Pierce at PitGuru said that "the planting situation is grim in the south, with replanting talk heard all over the region of Arkansas, Tennessee, southern Illinois, Missouri and Lousiana".
'Not glowing'
Still, bulls hardly held all the cards, what with a flagship Kansas wheat crop tour coming up with some resilient yields, although whispers after the close of trading appeared to suggest that production estimate may fall short of market forecasts.
And weekly US export sales data were weak too, notably for soybeans which, at 21,600 tonnes, came in at less than 10% of some of the more optimistic forecasts.
"The export sales report was certainly not glowing," Mr Holaday said.
Soybeans for July closed down 2.1% at $13.21 ¾ a bushel in Chicago, roughly in line with the grains. July wheat fell 2.3% to $7.54 a bushel in Chicago and 2.4% to $8.57 a bushel in Kansas, which trades the dry-challenged hard red winter crop assessed by the crop tour.
Chicago corn for July lost 2.8% to $7.08 ¾ a bushel.
'Drought stress'
European grains were protected somewhat by weaker currencies, following the dollar revival and decisions by both the European Central Bank and Bank of England to keep interest rates on hold, and better export data.
The European Union cleared a respectable 305,000 tonnes of wheat exports this week.
And the region of course has its own weather concerns.
"Northern Europe remains dry, with reports that the German crop is now stressed due to the lack of rain, with potential yield losses," Gleadell, the UK grain merchant, said.
"In the UK, rain is expected in the next few days although the amount due to fall in the dry east and south is hard to determine."
Paris wheat for May closed down 1.2% at E244.25 a tonne, with London's May lot shedding 0.7% to £203.00 a tonne.
Softs soften
But New York soft commodities were exposed to the full force of the rising dollar, prompting a 4.9% drop to $3,055 a tonne in July cocoa, and a 2.1% fall to $288.25 a tonne in July coffee.
Sugar for the same month lost 2.3% to 20.86 cents a pound, an eight-month closing low, and cotton fell too, if failing to repeat its frequent trick of a move the maximum daily limit.
The July lot ended down 3.1% at 146.86 cents a pound.

See the original article >>

ABOUT THAT “BUBBLE” IN US TREASURY BONDS….

by Cullen Roche

The US Treasury bubble continues to collapse HIGHER….If you bought long bonds exactly 12 months ago you have achieved a total return of ~5.5%. That’s not world beating, but it’s certainly not bad. What’s been so interesting about the US Treasury market, however, is that yields simply refuse to surge higher. Supposedly, there is high inflation. Supposedly, there are bond vigilantes just waiting to take out the USA on a slab and dump her in the ocean of default. Supposedly, we have a fiscal problem that will render us the next Greece. Supposedly, we are “running out of money”. Of course, none of this is really accurate and the US Treasury market is reflecting that reality.

In a death march similar to Japanese Government Bonds in the 90′s, US bond investors continue to try to call the US Treasury market a “bubble”. Some readers might think I spend most of my time trying to slay bubbles (given the recent surge in hate mail regarding my silver bubble call), but I have spent quite a bit of time trying to quell fears in the US Treasury market as well. After all, this bubble talk in treasuries has been going on for the better part of the past 5 years+ and an odd thing keeps happening – the bubble callers keep looking back in awe as yields simply refuse to surge as so many have predicted.
Of course, anyone with a sound understanding of our monetary system (see here for a guide) can see that there is no such thing as bond vigilantes for a nation that is the sovereign issuer of its currency in a floating exchange rate system. You also understand that it is nonsensical to argue that the USA is remotely similar to Greece, a household or a business (all of whom are currency USERS). And most importantly, you see that bonds have no relationship to the nation’s financing operations. The only reason yields would surge is if the country were in fact suffering high inflation or at risk of hyperinflation. The treasury market is sending a loud message, however – those calling for hyperinflation, default or even high inflation are dead wrong. The JGB death march (now the UST death march) continues…..

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