+ 28.73 % YTD For Our Galaxy Combined Portfolio Systems

Il risultato complessivo del nostro Galaxy Combined Portfolio Systems da inizio 2011 ed aggiornato a fine Giugno ammonta a + 28.73 %. I risultati storici di Galaxy Portfolio System sono disponibili ai seguenti link: http://www.box.net/shared/static/nz7u0ztnbp.xls, http://box.net/shared/b9cg6kfa6s. I risultati dei singoli trading systems sono a disposizione al seguente link: http://www.box.net/shared/5vajnzc4cp

The overall result of our Galaxy Combined Portfolio Systems since the beginning of 2011 and updated at the end of June amounted to 28.73%. Historical results of Galaxy Combined Portfolio System are available at the following links: http://www.box.net/shared/static/nz7u0ztnbp.xls, http://box.net/shared/b9cg6kfa6s. Historical results of single trading systems are available at the following link: http://www.box.net/shared/5vajnzc4cp


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Equity Line Trades, Giornaliera e Mensile di Galaxy / Trades, Daily and Monthly Galaxy Equity Line Free Demo Available



Performance MTM Mensile di Galaxy Portfolio System con un capitale iniziale di $ 200.000
Monthly MTM Performance of Galaxy Combined Portfolio System with $ 200K initial capital

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2009											1.19 %	2.90 %
2010	(4.28 %)	24.49 %	2.99 %	1.76 %	15.62 %	4.35 %	10.60 %	(0.41 %)	(4.73 %)	1.75 %	12.80 %	1.50 %
2011	7.54 %	7.75 %	8.06 %	6.23 %	(-4.43%)	1.30%

Your diversification strategy is working correctly?
The diversification is a management technique that mixes a wide variety of investments within a portfolio. The main benefit of adding managed futures to a balanced portfolio is the potential to decrease portfolio volatility. Risk reduction is possible because managed futures can trade across a wide range of global markets that have virtually no long-term correlation to most traditional asset classes. Moreover, managed futures funds generally perform well during adverse economic or market conditions for stocks and bonds, thereby providing excellent downside protection in most portfolios.
The diversification between assets
The diversification between assets that have low correlation between them improves the overall performance of our investments for the same risk, thus reducing our exposure to risk decreases as the so-called "specified risk" linked to a single class of financial products. Basically, if you only held the shares, the result of your trading / investment is overly tied to the fortunes of a particular financial instrument for which you are running too high a risk. A well-diversified portfolio asset class is one of the major components that create the optimal portfolio. Read "The Art Of Asset Allocation" and "Top 10 Rules Of Portfolio Diversification".
The diversification within an asset
Concentrating investments in individual products or securities, you are exposed to a type of risk that can not be controlled, and the risk becomes uncertainty, which is something that is incalculable. is possible, even in this case, reduce the specific risks by trading or investing, for example, not a single product but a basket of products that represents a very large share of the market. Read "The Art Of Asset Allocation" and "Top 10 Rules Of Portfolio Diversification".
The diversification of trading methods
It combines the use of different methods of trading not correlated to improve the relationship between profit and maximum loss. The low correlation between different methods tends to reduce overall losses due to the combined performance of two or more trading systems. It is therefore one of the most effective ways to improve the performance of our investments while reducing risk. Read "The Art Of Asset Allocation" and "Top 10 Rules Of Portfolio Diversification".
The diversification of the trading system parameters
Is to use, within the same trading system, of different sets of parameters. Assuming that a trading account manage an adequate capital for diversification, it is better to diversify sets of parameters rather than making multiple contracts with the same set of parameters. The diversification of the set of parameters helps to minimize risk and strengthen our ability to remain disciplined and consistent psychological application of the trading system. Read "The Art Of Asset Allocation" and "Top 10 Rules Of Portfolio Diversification"

TOGETHER TO WIN: GALAXY PORTFOLIO SYSTEMS
Our goal is to generates significant medium term capital growth independent of stock and bond markets with simple and strict risk trading rules with maximum possible diversification. All our Portfolio Systems are designed assembled and managed with this philosophy. Due to the high diversification that characterizes them, our Portfolio Systems enhance the positive synergies of individual Trading Systems which are composed and dramatically reduce the overall risk. Diversification remains the cornerstone of modern portfolio theory. Yet, during the financial crisis many "diversifying” investments readily followed the direction of the equity markets as they collapsed in 2008 and 2009. By contrast, our Portfolio Systems have just obtained their best resultsin 2008 thanks to the volatility of the period, the high diversification and the construction model that makes them independent of market equity and bond.



Material in this post does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation and do not constitute solicitation to public savings. Operate with any financial instrument is safe, even higher if working on derivatives. Be sure to operate only with capital that you can lose. Past performance of the methods described on this blog do not constitute any guarantee for future earnings. The reader should be held responsible for the risks of their investments and for making use of the information contained in the pages of this blog. Trading Weeks should not be considered in any way responsible for any financial losses suffered by the user of the information contained on this blog.

Sowings upgrade fails to quell cotton crop fears

by Agrimoney.com

The threat of high rates of lost acres, to drought, remains a spectre over US cotton production prospects despite the hike by American officials to their forecast for sowings of the fibre.

American farmers planted 13.7m acres with cotton this spring, a five year high, the US Department of Agriculture said on Thursday, lifting its forecast by nearly 1.2m acres.

However, there was no certainty that this increase will end up translating into a rise to the forecast for production too, given the extent of the drought challenges facing the crop, analysts said.

The USDA earlier in June estimated the abandonment rate at nearly 19%, among the highest in recent history. Officials estimate the proportion of the US cotton crop in "good" or "excellent" condition at 27%, compared with 62% a year ago.

'Conditions remain severe'

"With 1.16m more acres, a revision [in production] higher is possible, but due to weather problems resulting in yield reductions and a high abandonment rate, such an upwards adjustment is not a given," Rabobank said.

"Conditions of drought remain severe" in Texas, the main producing state in the US, the top cotton exporter.

Goldman Sachs analysts said that such fears might support prices of the fibre despite the, ostensibly bearish, sowings upgrade.

"While this large cotton average increase could accelerate the decline in cotton prices that we forecast, we expect that concerns for large abandonment in the US South will limit price downside in the near-term," Goldman said.

Price forecasts

The bank left its forecasts for cotton prices unchanged, at 150 cents a pound in three months' time, declining to 125 cents a pound in a year, for New York's near-term contract.

However, Rabobank said that, despite its reservations over US cotton production, "our view continues to be that prices will correct lower".

New crop cotton for December stood 0.1% higher at 118.75 cents a pound in late deals in New York. The soon-to-expire July contract was 1.1% higher at 161.50 cents a pound.

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Goldman Sachs calls time on food price explosion

by Agrimoney.com

Goldman Sachs, cutting forecasts for crop futures, called time on the food price explosion, saying deflation will kick in by the end of the year thanks to the knock-on effect of richer US corn supplies.

The investment bank said that, while prices of a basket of farm products will this autumn still be running ahead of those a year before, the comparison will have turned negative by December.

Goldman Sachs corn price forecasts and (change on previous) Three months: $5.90 a bushel, (-$2.10) Six months: $5.75 a bushel, (-$2.05) 12 months: $5.70 a bushel, (-$1.30) Prices for Chicago spot contract

"Running our updated forecasts through simple modelling points to… a sharp easing in agriculture inflation by year end," the bank said, forecasting that prices would finish 2011 about 7% cheaper than they closed 2010.

The forecast of food costs dropping off the inflation agenda comes amid continuing calls for measures to stem prices, with Pope Benedict on Friday urging a clampdown on speculators, saying crop markets are "without clear rules" and have "thin moral principles".

The G20 last week issued a communiqué recommending action to tackle food prices, although only after watering down talk on measures such as clampdowns on biofuels and crop export bans.

'Lower deficit chance'

Goldman Sachs' forecast came as it slashed its crop price expectations following Thursday's surprise US Department of Agriculture data which sent grain futures plunging.

Goldman Sachs wheat price forecasts and (change on previous) Three months: $5.90 a bushel, (-$2.10) Six months: $6.00 a bushel, (-$2.35) 12 months: $6.20 a bushel, (-$2.15) Prices for Chicago spot contract

The USDA estimates showed that corn sowings this spring trounced forecasts, reaching their second highest since World War II, and revealed far more of the grain left over from last year's harvest than had been expected.

The data "suggest that corn prices do not need to incentivise demand destruction this summer and strongly lowers the probability that the 2011-12 US corn balance will be in a deficit under average weather conditions", Goldman analysts said.

The bank lifted to 900m bushels, above a May estimate of 707m bushels, its estimate of US corn inventories at the close of 2011-12, and cut its forecast for the price of Chicago's near-term lot in three months' time to $5.90 a bushel, from $8.00 a bushel.

Soybeans vs corn

The bank made an identical cut to its forecast for Chicago wheat futures, despite acknowledging that the USDA's reports on Thursday were "fairly neutral" to the US outlook for the grain.

Goldman Sachs soybean price forecasts and (change on previous) Three months: $13.00 a bushel, (-$1.00) Six months: $14.75 a bushel, (-$1.00) 12 months: $14.75 a bushel, (-$1.00) Prices for Chicago spot contract

"We believe that the decline in corn prices that we forecast will also weigh on wheat prices," Goldman said.

Expectations for soybeans were also trimmed, despite the USDA data, in signalling weaker-than-expected sowings, implying slightly tighter American supplies of the oilseed.

"Our modelling suggests that the soybean-to-corn price ratio is strongly driven by the relative tightness of both crops.

"As a result, we expect soybean prices to outperform corn prices, yet also reflect our expected lower corn price forecast."

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MS Commodity Index ...

by Kimble Charting Solutions

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Bull market leaders ...

by Kimble Charting Solutions

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Consumer Discretionary Getting Close to a Bull Market High

by Bespoke Investment Group

Don't look now, but the Consumer Discretionary sector is less than 10 basis points away from its bull market closing high reached on May 12th. With a gain of 8.3% since June 16th, Consumer Discretionary has definitely led the overall market higher during the current run. As shown in the second chart below, Consumer Discretionary is the closest to its bull market closing high out of all ten sectors at -0.09%. With the way the market is moving today, the sector could easily close at a new bull market high. The S&P 500 as a whole is now just 2.27% from its bull market closing high.

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Investors Still Bullish on Gold and Copper

By Commodities Now

According to a June 2011 survey by ETF Securities, 90% of European investors have increased their holdings in precious metals over the past five years - this has mostly been driven by concerns on sovereign debt and inflation.

Two-thirds of investors expect the price of gold to increase over the next 12 months and over half expect the price of copper to increase over the same period. These are the results of ETF Securities' (ETFS) pan-European client survey* , focusing on metals.

Key findings of the ETFS client survey include:

• The majority of investors expect to increase their allocation to both precious and industrial metals over the next five years, with copper and gold being the most popular choices.
• In continental Europe, investors cite inflation hedging and portfolio diversification as the key benefits of investing in industrial metals. However, in the UK, most investors (60% of respondents) cite the strong links to the macroeconomic cycle as the main reason for maintaining exposure to industrial metals.
• Inflation hedging and portfolio diversification are seen as the key benefits of precious metals investing, according to the survey's respondents.
• Investors are still undecided on the outlook for silver, with 44% of respondents expecting the price to increase over the next 12 months.
• Almost half of the respondents prefer to invest in precious metals through physically-backed ETPs versus other methods of investment, including buying the metals directly.
• Gold, oil and agriculture are the current top commodity picks for investors.

Commenting, Scott Thompson, Co-Head of European Sales at ETF Securities, said: "Whether for inflation-hedging or portfolio-diversification purposes, enthusiasm for precious metals investment shows little sign of abating among survey respondents. Demand for gold remains particularly strong. Yet respondents are also keen to increase their exposures to industrial metals for similar reasons.

Many respondents also perceive the correlation between industrial metals and the macroeconomic cycle to be significant. Interestingly, more than half of respondents (56%) expect to increase their allocations to industrial metals over the next five years. Industrial metals currently account for just 5% of assets in commodity ETPs globally; today's survey results suggest this figure could be set to rise."

(The survey was taken at an annual pan-European conference held by ETF Securities during the week of 14th June 2011 where delegates were asked to take part in a survey. In total, 54 responded. Responses across Europe were consistent; little bias was evident between countries.)

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Lower Targets Open For Brent Crude Oil

By: Seven_Days_Ahead

An earlier fall in Brent Crude Prices in May found initial support from a 38.2% level. This has now come under pressure again, inviting calculation of lower targets.

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ECRI Gets More Bearish, Raises Recession Possibility for First Time Since Last Year

By DoctoRx

Not giving a fig for this week’s stock market rally and backward-looking data such as a 55 ISM survey print, the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s co-founder gave an interview to Reuters that is linked to on the ECRI website. In this interview, Dr. Achuthan increases his bearishness and for the first time since last year, raises the possibility of recession. He also predicts that price inflationary pressures are going to recede. In this vein it is worth noting that gold, platinum, silver and oil are all down in price today and are in downtrends.

Achuthan also warms the hearts of certain capitalists by criticizing the Fed. He says that the Fed errs by predicting economic activities using a model. In contrast, ECRI is as empirical as possible, I believe. As a physician, I am an empiricist. First, notice what works. If one has an idea about a new treatment, test it prospectively to assess risks and benefits. Nassim Taleb spends a lot of time in his books talking about medicine and empiricism, which is one of the reasons I like him.

In the markets, the VIX has collapsed to frankly complacent levels. How quickly rising stock prices cheer the punters!

This sort of complacency was “OK” in the boom of the 1990s, but times have changed.

Without being a doom and gloomer, I simply don’t “get” the optimism here. We can’t avoid facing facts (e.g., liquidate malinvestments and move on). When my patients had health problems, we had to deal with them. Giving an unwell patient the medical equivalent of a 15 VIX would have been to commit malpractice. On the other hand, I had some patients, all women, who were so healthy that I advised them to avoid checkups for 3-5 years unless they had symptoms. These gals had the equivalent of a 5-10 VIX. (Happily, they stayed healthy through their prescribed term of medical avoidance.)

It took Ben about 2 months after the end of QE 1 to begin QE 1.5. Now that QE2 has ended, let’s see if the markets “force” his Keynesian hand to push the “Buy” button again and begin some version of QE 3.

However, there is no QE 3 yet, and a bearish divergence is occurring within the precious metals space that relates to damming up of the stream of new money from the system. Gold is a bit below its 50 day moving average (I use simple moving averages = sma rather than exponential ones = ema) but remains 3% above its 150 day sma. All gold’s moving averages from 50-200 day sma are moving up, though the 50-day sma is flattening severely. Platinum, which is almost solely an industrial and consumer jewelry metal without accepted use as money, is below all the same moving averages (PPLT lets you track platinum prices). In fact, unlike gold and silver, platinum is down in price on the year. So, the industrial and consumer metal is much weaker than gold, which is priced as money, meaning the anti-dollar in most general terms. Meanwhile, silver is below its 50- and 150-day sma’s but above its 200 day sma. In other words, silver is acting a lot like the average of gold and platinum. I take this to be confirmation of what I have been saying, which is that silver is not money and is a more dangerous asset than gold in periods of unexpected economic decline or deceleration. When the electronics industry finds itself with double orders and slowing demand, it buys less silver. And then what happens is that the ETF known as “SLV” has to dump silver into the decline (for technical reasons), accelerating the price decline. (For silver bugs, SLV can be a gigantic source of supply of silver that can replenish Comex silver inventories. Just sayin’; TPTB have lots of ways to accomplish their goals.) Meanwhile the Sprott Physical Silver fund, symbol PSLV, remains at a massive premium to NAV. This shows that there are lots of true believers in silver. I called this a good thing when I blogged bullishly on silver last September in different posts (with silver around $20/ounce), but it can be a bad thing on the way down. I think that silver is a good long-term investment, but that the odds favor lower prices in the weeks and months ahead (though a short squeeze could occur with explosive results). On the charts, it is at critical horizontal support right here. The next support comes in roughly 10% below this level. In a new cyclical recession (ignoring that the 2007 one did not really end in my view), I can see silver dropping to its 2008 high in the low $20s. Such a low would still be well above its low of summer 2010 and thus could mark an all-time low for the metal.

While I respect ECRI, I try to make decisions based on what I see happening in the real world. Right now I am seeing things that coincide with these public predictions of ECRI. Of course they could be wildly wrong there. In the real world that I see and that people tell me about, times are not good and there is no uptrend in economic activity. Unfortunately we have monetary authorities rather than truly free markets, and these authorities appear wedded to the same sorts of financial models and command-and-control games that would be a bit funny were they not so serious and so damaging to our lives. We can hope that if and when America gets back to where it once belonged, namely a land of sound money and (we can dream big dreams) limited government, we will find to the surprise and perhaps dismay of the Krugmanites that Keynes mostly got it wrong. We could see a boom that would make a lot of people’s heads spin, not a pseud0-boom caused by currency depreciation and other tricks. But until political-economic policies change, I expect to tend to continue to take the “under” when it comes to real economic performance.

On this holiday weekend, I’m going to reflect on the Founders and perhaps reread parts of the recent Ron Chernow bio of George Washington. GW mostly got it right. With more economic liberty and more freedom for companies to fail if things don’t go their way, then it would be a great pleasure to forget about gold as an investment and refocus on fairly priced, well-financed wealth-creating vehicles called stocks. As it is, though, I have not thrown away my (imaginary) Dow 10,000 hat.

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Manufacturing: Following The Dollar

By Jeff Harding

The ISM Manufacturing Index showed a modest gain in June, most likely reflecting some post-Tsunami inventory restocking. Exports were the main driver of the report, a result of a weak dollar for the past year. This is the 23rd month of growth in manufacturing (anything at 50+ is a positive indicator).

The Index increased from 53.5 to 55.3. Generally a reading of over 50 represents growth. The negative was that new orders barely budged, increasing only to 51.6 from May’s 51.0. One would rather see a robust new orders reading indicating strong future growth. Manufacturing employment grew also slightly from 58.2 to 59.9.

Yesterday the Chicago Fed PMI and the Kansas Fed manufacturing index also showed slight gains.

While this is a bright spot, keep looking at the trend.

It appears that with consumer demand still falling off, and consumer sentiment is still pessimistic (i.e., Gallup, Conference Board, Bloomberg, but U. of Mich./Reuters somewhat less negative). This isn’t a positive sign for manufacturing.

What seems to be driving manufacturing is this:

This chart illustrates the decline of the dollar versus the euro for the past year. The EU is not happy about this because by driving down the dollar, the Fed is, in essence, subsidizing U.S. exporters. Eurozone exports are falling off.

While this is happening, the world has been inflating their money supplies as well and are facing price inflation, a commodities boom, and housing booms (China). This is the result of worldwide monetary and fiscal stimulus. The world is reacting to these forces and tightening up money and credit. China especially is tightening. Europe is seeing price inflation and the ECB is talking about raising rates. Only Germany is experiencing strong growth. Asian economies are experiencing inflation and declining production.

This has serious implications for U.S. multinationals. If the world is cooling off, demand for U.S. goods will decline, regardless of the dollar, and that will hit these companies’ bottom line.

Another factor to watch are the PIIGS. Ignore the temporary euphoria over the potential deal worked out between Greece and the rest of the eurozone. With economies cooling worldwide, this will put the PIIGS under further pressure, especially Greece. It is still my belief that Greece will ultimately default on its debt because there is no way they will be able to repay their current and future debt obligation. In fact, according to the deal reached by the big European banks (German, French, and Belgian), Greece may already be considered to be in default because an extension of the maturity dates of their loans is considered to be a default by the rating agencies. But, neither Greece nor the banks have many alternatives for the short-term.

The fireworks with the PIIGS aren’t over and further shocks to their creditor banks will only drive cash back to U.S. Treasurys. This may boost the dollar and impact our exporters. It will be negative for Treasury prices. Such negative impacts only increase the likelihood for QE3.

These kinds of events are difficult to predict (actually any event is difficult to predict) because you never know what the central banks are going to do when crises arise. We need to keep an eye on these factors, but be aware that the odds are pretty high that they will occur.

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Brutal Short Covering Massacre Sends Market Soaring Just In Time For NYSE Shorts To Hit 2011 Highs

by Tyler Durden

With market volume below abysmal levels, and with market breadth at the highest in what appears ever, many are wondering how it is possible that the S&P could move by about 70 points in one week. Simple. As the chart below shows, NYSE short interest for the week ended June 15 was the highest in 2011, at 13.5 billion shares, a jump of 333 million share in two weeks, which certainly persisted into the second half of the month, just in time for the market to realize that with QE2 ending, and nobody left to buy bonds, rates have nowhere to go but up. The net result is one of the most epic short squeezes in recent history, coupled with one of the most rapid moves out of bonds and into equities, and if judging by the 5 Year bond, the most rapid ever. 

What the message from all of this is, aside from the fact that higher interest rates are supposed to somehow be better for the economy, is that the entire market now has adopted a HFT modus operandi, where nobody even bothers to discount, and all the action is reactive. We are not sure about readers, but the fact that the market has lost its most fundamental feature - discounting - is just a little troublesome, if not surprising. Such is life under centrally planned capital markets. 

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Presenting The Inventory Schizophrenia Of The Chicago PMI And The Manufacturing ISM

by Tyler Durden

To many the significant beat of today's Manufacturing ISM was not very surprising based on yesterday's higher than expected Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. As most economists know, the Chicago PMI has traditionally been a spot on predictor of that other more comprehensive survey, the Mfg ISM. Indeed, as Wikipedia explains, "The Chicago-PMI survey registers manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity in the Chicago region. Investors care about this indicator because the Chicago region somewhat mirrors the nation in its distribution of manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity." Traditionally the correlation has been in the 80s and higher. Sure enough, anyone who simply bought the market on an expectation that the ISM would replicate the Chicago PMI won. Yet the biggest surprise was beneath the surface, where a more granular read indicates some very violent schizophrenia. As Goldman said earlier, when reporting on the ISM: "a sharp increase in the inventories index (from 48.7 to 54.1) explained 1.1 points of the 1.8 increase in the headline index." Said differently, nearly two thirds of the total beat came from a jump in inventory levels. Yet what happened in the Chicago PMI yesterday? Well: take it from the horse's mouth. The Chicago Business Barometer called it a "precipitous decline" after it plunged from 61.6 to 46.96, the biggest drop in years. 

Which number is real? Is Chicago's much more focused inventory number accurate, in which case the ISM is massively misrepresenting reality, and inventory, not to mention the composite, is actually collapsing, or, as we pointed out, is this merely a delayed reaction, and the ISM will now tumble following this abnormal jump in inventories, in which case next month's ISM will be in the 45 range, as predicted by the New Orders less Inventories leading indicator. One thing is certain: only computers can continue trading in which day to day datasets indicate an unprecedented degree of schizophrenia at the economic data manipulation level. 

Manufacturing ISM Inventory:

Chicago PMI:

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