Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Oil in Dollars and Euros

by Bespoke Investment Group

With oil above $110 per barrel as we head into the Summer driving season, the prospect of $4 gasoline has many Americans changing plans to stay closer to home. The last decade has been a painful one for US motorists. Since 2000, the price of oil has increased from $25.25 per barrel to the current level of $112.60 (340%), and all of that increase has made its way to the pump. 

In Europe, however, oil's rise has been considerably less painful. In Euro terms, the price of oil has increased from 24.94 to today's level of 77.55 (211%). However, before we all begin to envy drivers in Europe because the strong Euro has partially insulated the region from the rise in oil prices, remember that government taxes are higher in that region. As of last month, the average price of gasoline in Europe was nearly $8 per gallon, which is about twice the level Americans are paying today.




Corn Planting Pace Slowest in 16 Years

by Richard Brock

U.S. corn planting is advancing at the slowest pace in 16 years due to cold, wet conditions that continue to limit fieldwork across eastern and northern areas of the Corn Belt. Monday afternoon’s weekly crop update from USDA pegged corn planting progress at 13% as of Sunday, below trade expectations that averaged 16% and well below the year-earlier progress of 66% and the five-year average pace of 40%.

USDA reported no significant planting progress across Illinois, Indiana or Ohio last week. Illinois planting progress was unchanged from a week earlier at 10% against a five-year average of 46%, with only 2% of Indiana corn and 1% of Ohio corn planted.

Planting advanced 5 percentage points last week in the top corn state of Iowa, but was still only 8% done as of Sunday against a five-year average of 48%.

The best planting progress was in the No. 3 corn state of Nebraska, where producers seeded 10% of their crop last week and were 15% done against an average pace of 35%.

In the No. 4 corn state of Minnesota, only 1% of the crop had been planted against an average pace of 46%. The Minnesota planting pace is the slowest since 1983. No corn planting activity was reported in North Dakota so far and only 2% of the South Dakota crop was planted.

The U.S. planting progress estimate was the lowest for the start of May since 1995 when less than 12% of the crop had been planted by May 1.

Other years when the U.S. corn planting pace was slower than this year include 1993, when less than 9% of the crop had been planted by May 1; 1984, when less than 7% had been planted and 1983 when 9% of the crop had been planted.

Three of those four years produced below-trend-line yields with yields falling well below the trend-line in 1983 and 1993. Only 1984 produced an above-trend yield.

At this point it seems unlikely that half of the U.S. corn crop will be in the ground by mid-May, when yield potential starts to decline significantly.

Planting progress should accelerate rapidly across Iowa and Nebraska this week and pick up across southern Minnesota as the western Corn Belt is expected to stay mostly dry through Friday.

However, conditions will remain too wet for planting in most of the eastern Corn Belt with a new round of rains moving through that area and planting activity will be slow to pick up in the Dakotas where producers are far behind on fieldwork.

That does not mean that the U.S. can’t grow a large corn crop this year as yield will still depend heavily on weather after planting.

However, the odds of an above-trend yield are certainly reduced as corn pollination will be pushed back into what is normally the hottest period of the summer in the Corn Belt.

To produce an above-trend yield the crop may need ideal weather from mid-May out – warm conditions during late May and June to boost development, cooler-than-normal weather during pollination and a late frost to allow full grain filling.

USDA was expected to report nationwide soybean planting progress for the first time this season, but did not as wet weather stalled soybean planting across the Delta and the mid-South.
The last time that USDA did not report nationwide soybean planting progress by May 1 was 2001.
See the original article >>

Financials Running Into Resistance?

by Bespoke Investment Group

The S&P 500 Financial sector has seen a rally of about 3% over the last two weeks, but it has run into a bit of resistance in the last couple of days. Which way the sector breaks from here will likely have a pretty big impact on overall sentiment in the days ahead.




Coal Use Shine’s Light on China's Economic Growth


International coal prices hit $124 per ton this week, the highest levels in five months, as strong demand from reconstruction projects in Japan and reduced supply from flood-ravaged Australia has made coal supply tight. The floods in Queensland, Australia cut the country’s output of coal by 15 percent and other big coal producers such as Indonesia, South Africa and Colombia are experiencing similar production cuts due to floods of their own.

At the end of March 31, coal prices were 33 percent higher than a year ago and earlier this month, mining giant Xstrata inked a one-year deal with a Japanese utility at $130 per ton, effectively setting a floor under coal prices in the near-term. That’s up from $98 per ton the company made in a similar deal a year ago.

Perhaps no country is more affected by this development than China. With its economy powering ahead with 9.7 percent GDP growth during the first quarter, Chinese electricity use was up 13.4 percent on a year-over-year basis over the same time period, according to China’s National Energy Association (NEA). China’s overall electricity consumption is now expected to rise 12 percent this year, up from the 9 percent growth the NEA forecasted in January.

China’s Electricity Council said the country may face power shortages of 30 million kilowatts during the summer so the government has moved quickly to put restrictions in place as the peak season approaches. Big industrial provinces such as Guangdong and Zhejiang are already scaling back power consumption. These reductions are likely to hinder aluminum, cement, zinc and steel output, according to Macquarie Commodities Research. 

In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission (NRDC) called a meeting this week of domestic coal suppliers such as Shenhua Energy and China Coal Energy to ensure stable supplies, the China Daily said.

Coal powers the Chinese economy. The country is the world’s largest consumer, gobbling up nearly half of the world’s coal consumption in 2009. Coal accounted for 71 percent of China’s energy in 2008—more than three times the United States’ share. The Electricity Council estimates that the country’s coal demand will reach 1.92 billion tons in 2011, up nearly 10 percent from 2010.

China hasn’t always been such a glutton for coal. In fact, coal consumption actually declined from 1996 to 2000. However, consumption has shot up 180 percent since then and China accounted for 80 percent of demand growth between 1990 and 2010, according to BP.

This is because demand for electricity exploded over that time. China’s rapid urbanization and rising middle class has led to an exponential number of new refrigerators, air conditioners and other appliances in homes.


Despite the rise in incomes and increased consumer demand, China’s electric power consumption remains relatively low. You can see from the chart on the right that the U.S. consumes roughly four times the amount of electricity per capita than China. The world’s second-largest economy even trails Greece, Poland and Hungary.

Luckily for China, it sits atop the third-largest amount of recoverable coal reserves in the world behind the U.S. and Russia. The country ramped up its coal production from 645.9 million tons of oil equivalent in 1999 to 1,552.9 million tons in 2009. Despite this increase, production couldn’t keep up and the country became a net importer of coal in 2009. Production jumped over 15 percent during 2010 but the country was still forced to increase coal imports by 42 percent in order to meet demand, according to the China Daily.

There are two types of coal. Thermal coal is burned in furnaces to create electricity and metallurgical coal, also called coking coal, is used to create concrete and steel. China’s coal reserves are light on the latter, which has required China to rely on countries such as Australia, Indonesia and Russia for supply.

These imports are playing a vital role in China’s infrastructure boom. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that Australia’s total exports to Asia, which also includes Japan and India, will increase 64 percent to 394 million tons by 2035. This accounts for 94 percent of Australia’s total exports.

Coal exports from Indonesia, Asia’s second-largest source of coal, are expected to rise 26 percent over the same time period, according to the EIA. In 2009, China signed a 25-year, $6 billion loan-for-coal agreement with Russia that will supply the country with 15-20 million tons of coal.

The Chinese government made it clear that it wants to wean the country’s power grid from coal. That’s proven to be a difficult task. China’s 12th Five Year Plan calls for big improvements in energy efficiency and the development of additional sources including natural gas.

Massive projects such as the Three Gorges Dam have sought to increase capacity of alternatives, but hydroelectric, nuclear and other renewables combined make up only 10 percent of total power. In addition, low water levels due to a drought in Southern China have reduced current hydroelectric capacity.

The ongoing disaster at the Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan has delayed but not squashed China’s nuclear ambitions. The country has plans to build more than two dozen plants by 2020, accounting for 40 percent of new nuclear facilities around the globe.

Only time will tell if the effort will be successful. The EIA forecasts that China’s power generation from coal will increase by 2035 but will only account for 62 percent of total power generation at that time. However, the EIA says that absolute coal consumption will nearly double as the economy continues to grow and electricity demand remains strong.

With coal’s short- and long-term status atop China’s energy mix intact, we think some domestic coal producers stand to benefit. To participate, we’ve taken positions in several coal producers including Shenhua Energy and Yanzhou Coal which we believe offer tremendous potential for the China Region Fund (USCOX).

Silver Bull Market Continues


For the past few years we have received constant requests to provide a report on Silver. We have provided numerous reports on Gold since we feel it is money, not currency, and it has been in a bull market since 2001. Silver, on the other hand, is currency. Not fiat currency that can be mass produced with a printing press or, nowadays, just a keystroke on a FED computer. Silver has always been a means of exchange for one tangible asset or another, until the past several decades. Whether anyone still considers Silver a currency in not important. What is important is that it has been in a secular bull market since 1993, and a recent bull market since 2008. The following chart displays this secular bull market.



After the $48.00 peak in 1980 Silver entered a secular bear market along with Gold. The commodity bull market had ended. While Gold did not bottom until 2001 Silver made its actual price low in 1993 at $3.49/oz. After a Primary wave I rally to $5.77 in 1994 Silver went into a prolonged irregular Primary wave II bear market bottoming at $4.01 in 2001 with Gold. After the bull market in Gold kicked in, Silver finally started impulsing again to the upside. In 2008 it hit a Primary wave III top at $21.44, but then lost over 60% of its value in the mass liquidation of 2008. When it hit a low of $8.40 it ended Primary wave IV and embarked on the always parabolic Primary wave V.


The weekly chart displays our OEW count heading into the Primary wave III top, the Primary wave IV low, and the current Primary wave V. Elliott Wave purists should not be alarmed. Silver, like many commodities, sometimes overlaps waves in impulsing bull markets. This is a characteristc of a regular 24 hour futures market. This is also one of the reasons it is difficult to count clean stock market impulse waves using the futures contracts.

Primary wave V is dividing into five Major waves. The first Major wave was quite simple. It uptrended from the 2008 Primary wave IV low at $8.40 to $14.61 in early 2009. Major wave 2 was quite short and corrected to $11.82. Then Silver entered an extended subdividing Major wave 3. Major waves, in bull markets, divide into five Intermediate waves. The first four of these Intermediate waves were simple: $16.23, $12.45, $19.45 and $14.68. When Silver entered Intermediate wave five it immediately started to subdivide into Minor, Minute and Micro waves. A dynamic Intermediate wave five was about to unfold.


This daily chart displays the market action since the complex Minor wave 2 low at $17.35 in July 2010. Notice the strength and subdivisons of Minor wave 3. After it topped im Jan11 at $31.21 a simple zigzag correction followed, alternation, bottoming also in Jan11 and at $26.38. The current uptrend, Minor wave 5, is subdividing even further. Fifth waves are usually the most dynamic for commodities in general, but especially for the precious metals. When this uptrend ends, so will Minor wave 5, Intermediate wave five, and Major wave 3. Then we should observe a very sharp correction, likely a zigzag, to alternate with the Major wave 2 flat.

When we apply fibonacci analysis to the current wave structure we arrive at two potential upside targets for Major wave 3. The first target is in between $51.60 and $54.40. Calculations: @ $51.60 Minor 5 = 6.85 Minor 1, @ $53.20 Minor 5 = 1.618 Minor waves 1 thru 3, and @ $54.40 Major 3 equals 6.85 Major 1. The second target is in between $62.60 and $66.90. Calculations: @ $62.60 Int. 5 = 6.85 Int. 3, @ $62.70 Minor 5 = 2.62 Minor 3, and @ $66.90 Int. 5 = 6.85 Int. waves 1 thru 3. There you have it: first target $52 – $54 and second $63 – $67.

Looking further out into the potential 2014 bull market top we made some Fibonacci calculations for the bull market high. Once Major wave 3 and Major wave 4 conclude we should be able to fine tune these calculations. The calculations: @ $82.10 Primary V equal 4.23 Primary III, @ $84.30 Primary V equals 4.23 Primary waves I thru III, @ $127.80 Primary V equals 6.85 Primary III, and @ $131.40 Primary V equals 6.85 Primary waves I thru III. These calculations suggest a bull market high between $82 – $84 or $128 – $131. If you would like to track Silver along with us please scroll down the page of this link:

S&P500 May Hold Clues to Gold and Silver Peak


The single biggest news event this week besides the Royal Wedding (who actually cares) was Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s televised press conference. The Federal Reserve is attempting to appear more transparent after coming under pressure from the United States Congress because of their obscure and potentially nefarious operation. For most Americans, Ben Bernanke is someone they likely have never even heard of, but on Wednesday Mr. Bernanke got to bask in the sunlight that is generally only reserved for public elites such as celebrities, pro athletes, and the President of the United States.

While Chairman Bernanke had his brief moment of publicity, his answers to seemingly pre-screened questions were vague, misleading, and rather contrived. He answered questions using very long responses which generally obfuscated rather than clarified the situation. In my estimation, Mr. Bernanke solidified what many market participants already believed; he is nothing more than an academic.

Mr. Bernanke and the Federal Reserve have based every decision they seemingly make on antiquated models and algorithms which work in a classroom and fail in real time. To the average man (myself included), he blathered on speaking about things that most people do not even understand. It is almost as if he did this to prove his intelligence and ability.

For long time readers, my disdain for the Federal Reserve is relatively easy to recognize. While the U.S. Congress is nothing more than charlatans, the Federal Reserve is the greatest thief in American history. Through the debasement of the U.S. Dollar and a long time track record of reacting too late or not at all to economic events, the Federal Reserve has stolen purchasing power from the American people. The inflation that has been unleashed over the past 10 years has been tremendous and the long term impact on the standard of living in the United States has been negatively altered. In essence, the Federal Reserve took from everyone and “we the people” got nothing tangible in return.

Mr. Bernanke made comments about the U.S. Dollar including “that it fluctuates.” The only direction it has fluctuated since he has been in charge at the Federal Reserve is lower. If lower and fluctuation are synonyms, I wish my weight would fluctuate!

Where were the hard questions from reporters? Where were questions about gold and silver rallying to new highs nearly every day? Where was the question about the Fed’s credibility when it totally missed the sub-prime crisis and referred to it as a contained event? What has the Federal Reserve done a good job at besides causing inflation based bubbles immediately followed by nasty busts. However, the real question still remains, what does the future hold for financial markets?

What I’m about to say may surprise readers, but history supports my thought process. If the Federal Reserve continues on the same path it is possible that the U.S. Dollar could go through a real currency crisis. The potential for such an event is intensified by the fact that Asia and Europe are raising interest rates due to inflationary pressures. Time will tell, but gold and silver remain strong, however I would not fall in love with either commodity, or any commodity for that matter. Whether we have a currency crisis or not, there is going to be one nasty sell off in commodities in the future, specifically in silver.

I agree with many market prognosticators in that we are in a commodity bubble. The weekly chart of silver futures below illustrates just how parabolic the move has been: 

At some point the U.S. Dollar will bottom, and when it does a significant rally will take shape. When the U.S. Dollar rallies it has the potential to be sharp and fast. Silver would be hit hardest as the chart above shows the parabolic move higher that has transpired over the past few months. The timing of the U.S. Dollar’s bottom is difficult to quantify, and picking bottoms is a fool’s game. Nevertheless, the commodity charts will tell us when it’s time for the rally to unfold, but for right now prices will likely continue higher for commodities and equities.

While I think longer term precious metals investors might be able to withstand the impending selloff, the other side of that selloff will likely see gold and silver work higher still. Longer term gold and silver will likely perform well, but traders must be aware that a sharp pullback is not only likely, but would be considered healthy by many market participants. The Dollar Index weekly chart illustrates the sharp selloff in the U.S. Dollar the past few months.

While several articles have been proffered by authors I respect deeply, they have not offered a means to determine when the Dollar has bottomed. While nothing is full proof, the longer term SPX chart may be a guide as to when the U.S. Dollar will begin to bottom. The SPX weekly chart shown below illustrates the long term ascending channel that the S&P 500 has been trading in for some time.

My “educated guess” as to when the Dollar will begin to bottom will likely coincide with a test of the ascending trend line. In previous articles, I opined that I thought we would see the S&P 500 rally and we are in that process now. My guess is that about the time the S&P 500 tests the rising channel, we will see the U.S. Dollar begin to bottom. The short opportunities that will be presented from a risk / reward perspective could be outstanding. Cycles typically line up, particularly when one particular asset, in this case the U.S. Dollar, are driving markets in one particular direction for a long period of time.

Typically business cycles end when commodities and commodity based stocks such Exxon or Barrick Gold rally. We are in that stage of the business cycle right now, and typically when that stage has been reached it is indicative that the economy is starting to overheat. Cyclicality in financial markets has been discussed for years, but often times technical analysis will align with the business cycle. While I may not be exactly right as to the timing, it certainly gives a solid framework for risk-based decisions going forward.

Conclusion

I believe that the actions taken by the Federal Reserve for the past 2-3 years are going to result in additional selling pressure in the future for the U.S. Dollar which will propel commodity prices and equity futures prices higher than what many will expect. While the selloff may occur within the confines of a short to intermediate term time frame, the U.S. Dollar will eventually bottom and a nasty selloff in commodities and stocks will transpire and the next leg of the secular bear market will begin. The business cycle and the technicals are aligned at this point, the question is really how long it is going to take to get there.

The end game will likely result in the Federal Reserve looking foolish while the American people and the global economy will suffer from the Fed’s ineptitude. The possibility that the Federal Reserve is forced to raise interest rates to slow down inflation at the same time the U.S. Dollar bottoms is a recipe for a potential economic disaster.

Slowing economic conditions based on higher oil prices and inflationary pressures paired with higher interest rates will result in another recession fueled by the Federal Reserve’s Keynes based economic models and decision making. Ben Bernanke was right about one thing, the Federal Reserve uses educated guesses based on their models when setting monetary policy. I posit to readers, what happens if the Federal Reserve Chairman and Governors’ price models and educated guesses are completely false?

When Will S&P500 Regain All Its 2007-09 Losses?

By Barry Ritholtz

>
If history is any guide, the S&P 500 Index is heading for new highs early next year. That is according to Thomas J. Lee, the chief U.S. equity strategist for JPMorgan (via Bloomberg’s Chart of the Day).

Lee looked at the 10 worst bear markets since the 1920s, and found that the median downturn was ~20 months. At 23 months, the 2007-09 collapse was fairly typical of this group.

Here’s where things get interesting: Lee observed that 888.62-point, 23 month retreat from October 2007 to March 2009 has now recovered 75% of those losses (See above chart). His historical analysis suggest that the remaining 25%, if this cyclical bull is average, will be recouped over the next 10 months.

This pattern suggests the 2007-2009 plunge may completely erased by early 2012. To play this rebound, his favorite sectors are financials, industrials and technology.

I am not sure if I agree with this, but I nonetheless found this analysis intriguing. Indeed, my immediate reaction was to recoil from it. However, I have learned from my own trading history that when I have a visceral reaction against something, it is my limbic brain, rather than my frontal cortex, doing the “thinking.” 

That reaction is likely typical of most traders, and therefor worth considering the opposite — that the negative reaction is worth exploring, and perhaps Lee’s technical take might ultimately be right — even if the Macro perspective is far worse . . .

See the original article >>

Understanding Where We Are in the Silver Bull Market

By: David_Banister

Last August I told my subscribers to prepare for a monster rally in Silver, which at the time of my forecast was $18.73 per ounce. I drew up a chart and predicted a huge rally to $29 an ounce, and we ended up at $31 or so just a few months later. This was entirely a crowd behavioral move that I foresaw in advance, based on patterns that R.N. Elliott developed in the 1920's and 1930's. My theory was besides the crowd pattern (a 20 month odd Triangle consolidation), that investor's would begin to view Silver as "Poor man's Gold" and buy it. Literally, the idea is as simple as investors will simply think that "Gold is too expensive, but silver is cheap". That is the explosion power that is behind this move from $19 to $50 an ounce since late August 2010.

Below is the original chart I sent to my subscribers outlining this triangle pattern and the likely move:


After Silver ran hard and fast, it left a lot of talking heads on CNBC and everywhere else scratching their heads and wondering what just happened. If you learn and understand the basics of Elliott Wave Theory, you can begin to foresee what is about to happen and stop scratching your head all the time. Watching the analysts on CNBC is like watching the Monday morning quarterbacks following an NFL Sunday. After that massive silver run from $18 to $31, it was time for a correction and I called for $25 to $26.50 as likely in a normal pessimistic crowd wave 2 pattern down. Once that completed, I sent my subscribers the chart below outlining another Bull wave to $39-$45 per ounce:


Silver then eventually ran to $45 per ounce in April of 2011 and had a brief spike to near $50 to test the all time highs just in the past week or so. The action has been wild since then, because after a wave pattern from $18 to $31, then back to $26, then up to $47... the crowd will begin to turn mildly pessimistic in a current "wave 4 " correction pattern. This is when you will begin to hear excuses for Silver dropping, including believe it or not blamed on the death of Osama Bin Laden. In truth, whatever happens near term to explain the current correction in Silver is simply Monday morning quarterbacking. Using the current days headlines to explain the action that I already know is coming. Other excuses are the change in margin requirements on silver contracts and the squaring of positions at end of month etc.

I expect Silver to correct to the 40 to $42.75 areas based on my Fibonacci work and Elliott Wave views, and after this 4th wave consolidation we will see a surge to as high as $60 per ounce. Any pullbacks in Silver should be bought here and same with the Silver stocks post haste. Below is my latest chart forecast on Silver:



See the original article >>

Experts lower cotton price hopes as orders dry up

by Agrimoney.com

Cotton experts signalled that the slide in cotton prices might prove steeper than had been thought as they highlighted "slowing demand" for the fibre from mills in the face of depressed margins.
The International Cotton Advisory Committee forecast that prices of the fibre, as measured by the Cotlook A basket of physical values, "will decline significantly" in 2011-12, while "probably" staying above a 10-year average of 60 cents per pound.
The forecast represents a significant change in tone on an April forecast that cotton prices would "remain strong" next season, and "remain considerably higher than the 10-year average".
The committee, which in April forecast the Cotlook A averaging 138 cents a pound in 2011-12, down 15% year on year, failed this time to reveal a price forecast.
'Demand weakening'
The shift in outlook followed April's 29% fall in the Cotlook A to 173 cents a pound, the first month-on-month decline in eight months, if leaving the price "very high by historical standards".
"The main reason explaining the recent drop of cotton prices seems to be a significant slowing in demand," the committee, an intergovernmental group, said.
"Very high cotton prices, problems of credit access, and the fact that cotton yarn prices did not increase as fast as cotton prices and started yielding ground in mid-March 2011, are all affecting mill use."
The US, the world's top shipper of the fibre, has reported five successive weeks of negative weekly cotton exports – that is, with cancellations exceeding new orders.
The ICAC forecast world consumption rising by 2.8% to 25.8m tonnes next season, well behind production which, fuelled by high prices, will jump 11.3% to 27.6m tonnes, putting the world back into an output surplus for the first time since the mid-2000s.
Slow plantings
This week, cotton prices have been further undermined by unexpected rains in Texas, America's top cotton-growing state, where dry weather had threatened to hamper famers' efforts to ramp up production.
US cotton farmers had, as of Sunday, sown 18% of their crop, behind the average pace of 24%. In Texas, 16% of the crop was planted, compared with 23% typically by the start of May.
On New York's Ice futures markets, the fall in cotton prices of more than 20% from March's record high of 227 cent a pound prompted the exchange from Monday to lower to 6.0 cents, from 7.0 cents, the maximum daily limit which contracts are allowed to trade.

See the original article >>

Aussie Dollar and Gold Stocks


The rising Aussie dollar is limiting the gold stocks at present in addition to hurting about half of the Australian economy. Exporters (manufacturing) are suffering, so are tourism & education. This article examines the recent history of the AUD gold price and gold stock valuations and profitability in this context.

Some offshore investors may be selling down their carry trade positions at present and this is currently muting gold stock rises here. Why not borrow cheap money in Japan, Europe and the US before investing it in a resource economy as strong as Australia? Especially in gold stocks which are gradually being recognized as an amazing investment opportunity. A great move however when the currency appreciates too fast it attaches a down side risk, which is being covered at present. Traders are locking profits because this is what traders do.

To support my argument; Eldorado Gold Corporation and AngloGold Ashanti are the only gold stocks not down here on the ASX as I write this article. This is because the ASX is not their primary listing; we trade the CDI's (Chess Depositary Interests) down here for these two stocks. Does this mean Aussie gold stocks are a "sell" right now? Unless you are a short term trader the answer is no. I shall explain why.

So how extreme is this AUD movement? Bollinger Bands (BB's) measure extreme magnitude divergences of price against the moving average - big moves in other words. This current AUD: USD move is an extreme move, more extreme than we have seen for some time. Even the upper monthly BB of the AUD: USD ratio has been exceeded to the upside by over 2.5c (at C), a feat last reached in October 2007 and only the second monthly close at this extreme end of this magnitude reached in 20 years. Here is a 20 year monthly chart of the AUD: USD ratio:


We saw a 10% pullback after that 2007 event ( at B) as this ratio headed for an important pre-GFC top. This ratio exceeded the top BB two other times to this degree, only intra-month during 2007. In the first half of 2003 we saw three tops above the Monthly BB of nearly 2c (at A) a similar magnitude and a 7.35% correction followed.

At the start of a new month often associated with seasonal negativity (May), and with the AUD: USD at an important psychological level (1.10) it is not surprising that some carry trade capital is being taken off the table. My Educational Portfolio did the same last week just in case we do not immediately break the 8400 double top on the XGD (more for subscribers only). We are also sitting on a range of quality growth oriented gold stocks in the Portfolio ahead of a move in the second half of 2011 in this sector. What is going to drive the move?

Before I have to listen to theories that the AUD and gold might keep moving in lockstep take a look at this chart:


My first point is that is hasn't moved in lock step, well not since late 2005 which all Aussie gold bugs remember with frustration. Before that gold was not really in a bull market in most currencies, it was merely recovering from distorted lows below US$420 caused by Central Bank selling and Barrick shorting the blazes out of hoards of un-mined gold. They had a very special deal indeed and this whole chapter is well behind us now so I will leave it there. Many other companies had to join the shorting frenzy that added downward pressure to gold and caused major harm to the industry as the positions had to be unwound at much higher prices. But gold only really started to take off with any gusto in late 2005 in Aussie dollar terms and this is at the end of the large black ellipse on the chart provided above.

Once we cleared that first red line A it was off to the races, in fact the larger producers took off in March 2005 well ahead of the AUD gold break out. Since the original launch we can see a fairly orderly rise of gold in AUD just as we have in most other currencies. Line B was the first level up and you can see that the break to level C preceded a correction back to B which had now become the new support. This pattern has been repeated ever since.

Line C was reached at the early 2008 high for gold and that would have been the high for a time however then we experienced the GFC distortion. The AUD crashed to US60c so I have not bothered to cover this wild spike; it was an extreme currency distortion, a statistical anomaly.

Line D was the next logical step up based on gold in AUD and at the last level over a year ago we reached A$1500 gold (at E) for the first time with gold high in USD as well - a broad gold rally in all currencies is underway. Judging by previous AUD POG consolidation periods this is no longer than the last 3 but you have to take that GFC distortion out of view to see it. The important thing to spot is that after reaching a new undistorted high at E, the old top D has been tested, firstly right to the exact line and then a further test that did not reach as deep.

How undervalued are Australian Gold Stocks?

I have written before that the Australian gold sector is undervalued, if you live in Australia the stocks carry less risk in the short term because you hold Aussie dollars. In other words no carry trade risk. The Aussie gold stocks are trading well below levels reached back in 2006; the Producers we track are at 500 today compared to nearly 900 in 2006, a 44% discount to when AUD gold was only $900 per ounce. The Emerging Producers are at 105 compared to 200 in 2006 which is a whopping 47.5% discount, and finally the Juniors are trading at 52 compared to their later high of 78 in 2007. Need I say anymore these statistics are raw and speak for themselves.

US investors may like to hold off investment in this sector until the AUD sees a short pull back as indicated above. After that I would expect massive currency appreciation by the AUD against the dying USD over the next few years. This will add to stellar investment returns when combined with rising Australian gold stock prices. The story will be different for each currency, however if you time your entry to your currencies exchange rate against the AUD and you will gain a double bonanza profit.

Given the risk on the world's major economies over the coming years I consider this a prudent hedge in addition to an opportunity. As you repatriate your returns at the end of this coming cycle you will be one of the wealthy, but you have to get your research right and select the right stocks - as always, some will fail completely and some will fail to follow through. Speaking of risk I have to ask if things get as dire in the US and Japan as we fear then will the Governments nationalize the domestic gold miners stealing well deserved profits from investors?

Americans will see their gold stocks within the USA earn massive returns in USD terms which will become less and less valuable offshore. This will be the negative effect of the sinking USD, reducing purchasing power outside the USA in addition to US inflation as all imported goods rise and rise in price. This is a tragedy in the making and I can only hope US citizens can protect themselves in greater and greater numbers.

Now back to Aussie gold stocks. We have to take the uptrend in the AUD price of gold seriously. After a strong move in this chart for over 6 years now it is clear this is a long term trend and can be trusted. Many of these producers are very profitable at the current levels of circa A$1400 gold and at A$1300 as well for that matter. Any of these can see upward share price movement on solid organic growth and move against a mild correctional trend at any time.

Most gold stocks are not going to see significant margin pressure if we go back to A$1300 POG however their margins would certainly shrink pulling back their share prices. The lower cost producers would be expected to do the best during such a consolidation but it also depends on who has to sell and how heavily exposed they are. Remember that the largest stakes tend to be fairly stable because it is hard to accumulate a position of magnitude. The explorers, small developers and high cost producers would do worst.

Before you think I have decided this is happening right now let me also state that given the Fed speech the other night gold can keep going up here. Continued negative real rates will continue to put a fire under gold. Add a flare up in Europe or the Middle East (take Syria for instance) and we could see a perfect storm merge for gold right now. It could still roar in all currencies taking the US POG straight to US$2000 and the AUD POG up to the next logical step of A$1700 gold. Each step so far has seen an A$200 POG step up so I consider the trend is clear and intact. Is there any other possible conclusion from this chart?

In this event the XGD and the Aussie gold sector will perform strongly because the market is gradually waking up to what I have been saying for quite some time. The buying under Goldman Sachs nominees and JP Morgan nominees indicates large fund buying - the big boys are getting set for this now - building a large stake. I greatly admire Sprott Asset Management as well and they are doing the same.

This is the only worthwhile game in town. Forget bonds and real estate - no upside potential just downside risk. This is now becoming evident to the general market and I don't want to see investors get burnt. Forget underperforming gold stocks - same story so there is plenty of work to be done here at GoldOz and at your end too for us all to make the best of a really poor situation for the general economy.

At present in May 2011 the US POG (Price of Gold) is going up because of the continued Fed policy to deliberately debase the currency. It is keeping interest rates (Fed only) at super low levels causing negative real interest rates - inflation is higher than current rates. This level of AUD appreciation may not continue against other currencies however it is likely to continue against a slowly dying USD. The point is that gold will rise against all currencies over time as it has for several years to date - the trend is clear. Until fundamentals change the trend will not change.

My conclusion is that there are times where the currency moves can temporarily hurt the Aussie gold stocks and this is currently a testing time for sure. This is an effect right now; potentially with some offshore selling to lock in share price movement combined with AUD strength gives them a double whammy profit bonanza. A quick 10% correction in the AUD would be a great re-entry if you are confident enough to pull this move off. The trend in gold and AUD gold is clear - and the stocks are still drastically undervalued by this metric.

But we are near a break point right now - poised to consolidate further or rise strongly. The May seasonal factor has not worked in the past few years - this is time to watch very very closely. The bellwether signal article I produced seems to indicate the stocks here would be inclined to churn or consolidate here for a while before resuming a strong uptrend into the second half of 2011 and beyond. Our Gold Membership is still on special at present if you want to take advantage of our extensive research and back issues of our Newsletter you need to act now.

Parched Kansas Wheat Crops Boosting Cost of Panera Bread, Wheaties Cereal

By Whitney McFerron

Wheat production in Kansas, the second-largest U.S. grower, probably will drop as dry weather persists, threatening to increase costs for breadmakers and restaurants that are already boosting prices. 

The state’s winter-wheat crop was in the worst shape in 15 years as of yesterday, after drought across the Great Plains dimmed prospects for the harvest that starts in June, government data show. Less output would erode inventories already expected to drop 14 percent in the U.S., the world’s biggest exporter. 

Wheat futures are up 57 percent in the past year after adverse weather cut output from Russia to Canada in 2010, spurring companies including Grupo Bimbo SAB, the world’s largest breadmaker, to pass on higher costs to consumers. Panera Bread Co., a St. Louis-based restaurant chain, and General Mills Inc., the maker of Wheaties, plan to raise prices. 

“It’s not going to be a great year,” said David Schemm, a farmer in Sharon Springs, Kansas, who may abandon as much as half of his wheat and plant other crops instead. “I look at my wheat crop, and it’s kind of sad, kind of disappointing. I really hope the remaining acres out here can have decent production.” 

Analysts and industry officials will meet tonight in Manhattan, Kansas, before beginning the Wheat Quality Council’s annual tour of fields tomorrow. About 46 percent of the state is experiencing drought, said Brian Fuchs, a climatologist at the National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln. That was the most since at least 1999, when the center began tracking data.

Texas, Oklahoma

Kansas may produce 257 million bushels this year, down 29 percent from last year, said Darrell Holaday, the president of Advanced Market Concepts in Manhattan, Kansas. Texas and Oklahoma crops may be cut by half, he said. The three states made up 28 percent of all U.S. production last year, government data show. North Dakota is the leading grower. 

“The U.S. may have a significant reduction in hard, red winter-wheat production, plus we know we have planting concerns with the spring crop,” said Justin Gilpin, the chief executive officer of Kansas Wheat, a Manhattan-based trade group. “We may have another year-on-year where we have the world consuming more wheat than we’re producing.” 

About two thirds of crops are winter varieties planted in the Midwest and Great Plains from September to November. They go dormant until March, and are harvested from June to August. Spring wheat, grown primarily in northern states, is planted in April and May and harvested from August to September.

Delayed Planting

Only 1 percent of wheat in North Dakota, which grows spring varieties, had been planted as of yesterday, as wet weather and slowly melting snow delayed field work, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said. About 10 percent of the nation’s total spring crop was sown, down from 57 percent a year earlier, the USDA said. An estimated 45 percent of the Kansas winter-wheat crop was in poor or very poor condition, the most since 1996. 

The USDA said in February, before most winter crops in the Great Plains emerged from dormancy, that national production may drop 5.8 percent this year to 2.08 billion bushels. The agency will update its forecast on May 11. 

Shrinking output in the U.S. may exacerbate a shortfall in global grain supplies. In the year starting July 1, cereal inventories, including wheat and coarse grains, may slide 2.6 percent to 334 million metric tons, a four-year low, as consumption outpaces demand, the International Grains Council said on April 20.
The group also cut its estimate for worldwide wheat production.

Rising Food Prices

World food prices reached a record in February before easing in March, according to the most-recent United Nations data. High costs and corruption spurred political unrest this year across the Middle East and northern Africa, ousting leaders in Tunisia and Egypt, the world’s biggest wheat importer. 

Wheat futures for July delivery fell 9.5 cents, or 1.2 percent, to settle at $7.9175 a bushel today on the Chicago Board of Trade. On Feb. 14, the price reached $9.1675, the highest for a most-active contract since August 2008, after governments in the Middle East and Africa boosted grain imports amid escalating turmoil.
Giancarlo Turano, a principal at Turano Baking Co. in Berwyn, Illinois, said commodity costs have increased about 30 percent in the past year. The company, which buys flour made from wheat grown in the Great Plains for baking at facilities in Georgia and Florida, raised bread prices about six weeks ago, he said in a telephone interview. 

“It’s made it very, very challenging to manage our business, just because prices are going to continue to go up,” said Turano, whose 49-year-old company sells bread to retailers including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. “The unfortunate thing is that as prices go up, consumption goes down throughout the country, not only in retail, but also the food-service segment.”

Grupo Bimbo

Grupo Bimbo, based in Mexico City, has increased prices in the U.S. twice since October amid higher commodity costs, Armando Giner, an institutional-relations director, said on a conference call on April 27. The company is set to complete an acquisition of Sara Lee’s North American bakery business this year. 

Panera Bread will raise prices 1 percent in September because of higher wheat costs, Jeffery Kip, the chief financial officer, said on a conference call on April 27. 

General Mills, based in Minneapolis, said in March it would raise prices amid “volatile costs for food ingredients.” 

U.S. agricultural income is expected to rise to a record $94.7 billion this year, according to the USDA. Farmers won’t reap those rewards if crops deteriorate, said Schemm, who manages 12,000 acres near Kansas’s border with Colorado. He said his area got 2 inches (5 centimeters) of rain last week, which may improve soil and allow replanting fields with sorghum or corn. 

Kansas is “a major supplier to the world of wheat,” he said. “It’s critical that we start to grow a good crop, because when we don’t have good production, it puts pressure on the world market."

Commodities Beat Financial Assets for Fifth Month in Best Streak Since ’97

By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen

Commodities beat stocks, bonds and the dollar for a fifth straight month, the longest stretch in at least 14 years, as demand for raw materials increases with expanding economies and Federal Reserve promises to boost growth. 

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Total Return Index of 24 commodities climbed 4.4 percent in April, after reaching the highest level since October 2008. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities advanced 3.9 percent, the most since December, and the U.S. Dollar Index, a gauge against six counterparts, fell 3.9 percent, touching a 33-month low. Bonds of all types returned 0.9 percent on average, based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Index. 

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled last week that he will keep pumping record amounts of money into the world’s largest economy and reiterated a pledge first made two years ago to keep interest rates “exceptionally low.” The U.S., the biggest oil consumer, will expand 3.2 percent this quarter, from 1.8 percent in the previous three months, and accelerate through the end of the year, according to the median of 73 economists’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. 

“We’re in a risk-on mode being helped by Bernanke,” said Arjuna Mahendran, the Singapore-based head of investment strategy for Asia at HSBC Private Bank, part of Europe’s largest bank by market value. The stimulus means “big walls of money going into commodities, stocks and emerging markets,” he said. 

The S&P GSCI Total Return Index rallied for an eighth month, the longest winning streak since 2004 when growth in the U.S. economy drove demand for raw materials. Silver, coffee, cocoa and gasoline led the gains in percentage terms in April.

Oil, Gold

Crude oil, which represents more than half the index, gained 6.8 percent in New York trading and 7.3 percent in London, amid concern that riots and conflict across northern Africa and the Middle East would disrupt supplies.

Libyan output sank to 390,000 barrels a day in March, from 1.39 million in February, according to Bloomberg estimates. 

Gold and silver reached records in April as investors sought to hedge financial assets against a weakening dollar and accelerating inflation. Gold advanced 32 percent in the past year and is set for its 11th annual gain, while silver more than doubled as investors increased their holdings in exchange-traded products to a record 15,518 metric tons on April 26. 

Consumer prices in China, the biggest user of everything from copper to iron ore, gained 5.4 percent in March, the most since 2008, while the cost of living in the U.S. rose at its fastest pace since December 2009 in the 12 months ended in March. 

Bin Laden, Silver 

Crude dropped as much as 1.5 percent today, the most in two weeks, after President Barack Obama said al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden had been killed, boosting expectations that risks of supply disruptions in the Middle East will ease. Silver had its biggest intraday drop since October 2008 after CME Group Inc. increased futures margins. Cotton futures plunged 21 percent in April, also the most since October 2008. 

“The key reason commodities outperformed stocks and bonds is the weak dollar,” said Evan Smith in San Antonio, who helps manage $1 billion at U.S. Global Investors Inc. “Commodities will continue to outperform stocks and bonds. Over the next three to six months, we don’t see a backstop for the dollar.” 

The Dollar Index had its worst month since September and the currency weakened against all 16 of its major peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The New Zealand dollar appreciated 6.3 percent, the euro 4.6 percent and the Japanese yen 2.3 percent, the data show.

‘Dovish’ Bernanke

Bernanke said April 27 that the end of the Fed’s $600 billion bond-buying program in June probably won’t have a “significant” effect on financial markets or the economy, and the central bank will likely continue reinvesting proceeds from maturing debt after June. 

“He’s remarkably dovish, dismissing inflation,” said Anthony Valeri, a San Diego-based market strategist at LPL Financial Corp., which manages $293 billion. “It does keep pressure on the dollar.” 

The Fed’s program to bolster the economy, which has been in place since the 2008 financial crisis, contrasts with China, which raised borrowing costs four times since October and increased reserve requirements 10 times since the start of 2010 to tame the fastest inflation since 2008. 

Bonds worldwide returned the most since August, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. Within that market, corporate bonds handed investors 1.3 percent and government debt returned 0.8 percent, the gauges show.

Goldman, Dow Chemical

The MSCI All-Country World Index reached 356.9 points on April 29, extending this year’s gain to 7.9 percent. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) advanced 2.9 percent in April, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index 2.9 percent and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index 2.7 percent. Stocks worldwide added $2 trillion of market capitalization in the month, the most since December, data compiled by Bloomberg show. 

Companies from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Dow Chemical Co. to Ford Motor Co. beat estimates in the earnings season that began April 11, when Alcoa Inc. reported a return to profit. Of the 298 members of the S&P 500 Index that reported since then, 76 percent exceeded expectations. 

Profit growth “bolstered investors’ appetite for taking on additional risk,” said Chad Morganlander, a Florham Park, New Jersey-based money manager at Stifel Nicolaus & Co., which oversees $110 billion of assets. “In this current environment over the next several months the economic numbers as well as the credit markets will continue to show a favorable trend, which will entice investors.”

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Corn, Soybean Prices Continue an Erratic Pattern

By Phyllis Picklesimer

As expected, corn and soybean prices continue to move erratically in a very wide range. Just in the past week, both May 2011 corn and soybean futures had a 56-cent trading range. As the markets make the transition from old-crop to new-crop dominance, a lot of factors are influencing price expectations, said a University of Illinois agricultural economist.
 
"For soybeans, the Census Bureau soybean crush report released on April 28 revealed that the March 2011 crush was about 10 percent smaller than that of March 2010. Through the first seven months of the 2010-11 marketing year, the crush was 7.4 percent smaller than the crush during the same period last year," Darrel Good said.
 
For the year, the USDA has projected a decline of 5.8 percent. Last year, the crush was unusually large in the first half of the year and declined rapidly from April through August. The seasonal decline may be less pronounced this year. Still, the crush for the year may fall marginally short of the current USDA projection of 1.65 billion bushels, he noted.
 
"The pace of soybean exports and export sales has declined sharply, and export inspections during the weeks ended April 21 and 28 fell below the weekly rate needed to meet the USDA projection of 1.58 billion bushels for the year. Reports of ongoing measures in China to cool economic expansion, along with large South American supplies, suggest a continued slow rate of exports," he said.
 
Expectations about the 2011 U.S. soybean crop have centered on some planting delays for corn and the implication for soybean acreage. With corn planting likely to continue through May if needed, there is no strong indication yet that planted acreage of soybeans will deviate substantially from March intentions, Good said.
 
For corn, weekly export inspections remain well below the pace needed to reach the USDA projection of 1.95 billion bushels for the year ending on August 31, 2011. Inspections need to average 42.9 million bushels per week to reach that projection. For the five weeks ended April 28, weekly inspections averaged 38 million bushels, he said.

Ethanol Also Moving Irregularly

According to Good, the weekly estimates of domestic ethanol production have also been erratic. "Based on weekly estimates through April 22, it appears that total ethanol production in March and the first three weeks of April was nearly 6 percent larger than in the same period last year. This compares to the 4 percent increase that is needed from March through August for corn used for ethanol and by-product production to reach the USDA projection of 5 billion bushels," he said.
 
Little is known about the rate of domestic corn feeding. Declining hog and cattle prices have raised some concern about feed demand. However, the feedlot inventory of cattle on April 1, 2011, was 5 percent larger than the inventory of a year earlier, Good said.
 
"In addition, the rapid switch to wheat feeding that was being discussed a few weeks ago has likely been put on hold as wheat prices have increased relative to corn prices. The June 1 Grain Stocks report, to be released on June 30, will reveal the rate of feed and residual use of corn during the third quarter of the marketing year," he said.
 
The most discussed item last week was the delay in corn planting and expectations about planting progress over the next two weeks. For much of the Corn Belt, optimal corn planting dates are believed to be in late April into very early May. Research reveals that corn yields tend to decline as planting moves beyond the optimum window. The declines also tend to accelerate as planting gets later and later, he said.
 
"The declines in yield, however, are relative to potential yield. Yield can still be relatively high with late-planted corn if the growing season weather is very favorable, but late-planted corn would still be expected to have yields below that of corn planted in a timely fashion," he said.
 
Some corn is planted late every year. For 2011, the questions center on what portion of the crop will be planted late and the degree of lateness, he said.
 
"It now appears that areas in the western Corn Belt will make substantial planting progress in early May. The focus will be on the wet areas in the southern and eastern Corn Belt and the cool areas of the northern belt," he said.
 
Most of the intended corn crop will likely get planted, so the most important factor will become summer weather, he noted.
 
"In 2009, extremely favorable summer weather extended the growing season and more than compensated for planting delays. An examination of weather records, however, reveals that the uniformly favorable conditions of 2009 have been rare," he said.
 
Uncertainty about consumption and production prospects, along with volatile currency and energy prices, suggest a continued wide trading range for both corn and soybeans, Good said.

Morning markets: slow US sowings support some grain prices

by Agrimoney.com

Could Tuesday bring relief to slipping agricultural commodity prices?
Not for old crop contracts, which maintained a slide amid signs of some easing up of the squeeze in demand.
That was evident, for some crops, in Monday's US weekly export inspections data, which for soybeans, for example, were, at 5.5m bushels, down 50% for the week.
Corn's were down a more modest 5% to 34.6m bushels, but still some 9m bushels below what they need to average to hit US Department of Agriculture estimates for 2010-11, according to Benson Quinn Commodities.
There are doubts about profitability for corn ethanol manufacture too, after Todd Becker, chief executive of Green Plains Energy, said that there was "no clear visibility of acceptable margins", which had become "compressed", as at the same time last year.
'Opportunity just to exit'
And this when many investors have noted a background trend anyway of fund selling, if not all of long positions.
"Fund liquidation, whether it be from the longs or the shorts, continues," Benson Quinn said.
"The ramped up volatility has many heading to the sidelines and using first notice/delivery period [for the expiring May contracts] as an opportunity just to exit the market.
"Open interest declined sharply last week regardless of higher or lower trade."
Paris-based Agritel said: "The market is uncertain, with strong fundamentals on the one hand, but financials preferring the metals sector rather than agricultural commodities, on the other hand."
'Slowest pace on record'
At least new crop contracts had USDA data out late on Monday, showing disappointing planting progress by US farmers, to underpin them.
Corn sowings, for instance, were only 13% completed. Many analysts had expected plantings to be behind the normal pace of 40%. But not that much behind, foreseeing a figure of around 15-16%.
So even if planting conditions improve this week, as is expected, "the market may struggle to have 40% to 45% complete by May 15 at this rate", Benson Quinn said. Mid-May is seen as a sowing cut-off date, after which yield potential falls.
"The corn planting pace is the slowest since the data was compiled in the 1980s with Illinois, Indiana and Ohio not making progress last week," Ker Chung Yang at Phillip Futures said.
"Considering the continued slow pace of planting, Chicago corn may be able to post some gains today."
US snow
For wheat, spring sowings were even further behind, at 10% compared with an average of 43%, after continued wet weather in northern US (and Canada where sowings are only 2% completed, down from an average of 10% by this time).
"North Dakota had snow this weekend," Mike Mawdsley at Market 1 said.
And then there was a continued deterioration in the condition of US winter wheat, including in Kansas, the top state, besides the continued challenge to crops elsewhere.
In France, the second-biggest wheat exporter this season, "water stress remains a concern on most northern territory despite thunderstorms observed over recent days, that relieved crops in some locations", Agritel said.
"In Germany, rainfalls were slightly more abundant lately, while the situation is still a great concern in Poland."
New crop vs old
In terms of pricing, corn's showed the starkest old-crop, new-crop gap, down 0.5% at $7.31 a bushel for July, but up 0.8% at $6.66 ½ a bushel.
For wheat, September lost 0.8% to $8.28 ½ a bushel in Chicago, compared with a fall of 1.0% to $7.83 ¾ a bushel for the July lot, which covers some new crop.
Minneapolis, the home of trading in US spring wheat, the July lot fell 0.4% to $9.33 ½ a bushel, while the September contract (which some have joked may turn into an old crop lot because of the extent of planting details) eased 0.2% to $9.31 ½ a bushel.
Soybeans remained a market follower, dropping 0.7% to $13.84 ¾ bushel for July and by the same to $13.64 a bushel for the new crop November contract.

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The S&P 500 May Hold Clues to the Peak in Gold & Silver

by J.W. Jones

“The warning signs were all
Dismissed or shouted down
So it goes
The kings all failed to tell us
The madmen failed to sell us
On what would then become
The only life we know.”

“Were they burning signal fires
To guide us to the fields?
Or building funeral pyres?
The outcome of a final appeal.”
- Rise Against “Endgame” -

The single biggest news event this week besides the Royal Wedding (who actually cares) was Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s televised press conference. The Federal Reserve is attempting to appear more transparent after coming under pressure from the United States Congress because of their obscure and potentially nefarious operation. For most Americans, Ben Bernanke is someone they likely have never even heard of, but on Wednesday Mr. Bernanke got to bask in the sunlight that is generally only reserved for public elites such as celebrities, pro athletes, and the President of the United States.

While Chairman Bernanke had his brief moment of publicity, his answers to seemingly pre-screened questions were vague, misleading, and rather contrived. He answered questions using very long responses which generally obfuscated rather than clarified the situation. In my estimation, Mr. Bernanke solidified what many market participants already believed; he is nothing more than an academic.

Mr. Bernanke and the Federal Reserve have based every decision they seemingly make on antiquated models and algorithms which work in a classroom and fail in real time. To the average man (myself included), he blathered on speaking about things that most people do not even understand. It is almost as if he did this to prove his intelligence and ability.

For long time readers, my disdain for the Federal Reserve is relatively easy to recognize. While the U.S. Congress is nothing more than charlatans, the Federal Reserve is the greatest thief in American history. Through the debasement of the U.S. Dollar and a long time track record of reacting too late or not at all to economic events, the Federal Reserve has stolen purchasing power from the American people. The inflation that has been unleashed over the past 10 years has been tremendous and the long term impact on the standard of living in the United States has been negatively altered. In essence, the Federal Reserve took from everyone and “we the people” got nothing tangible in return.

Mr. Bernanke made comments about the U.S. Dollar including “that it fluctuates.” The only direction it has fluctuated since he has been in charge at the Federal Reserve is lower. If lower and fluctuation are synonyms, I wish my weight would fluctuate!

Where were the hard questions from reporters? Where were questions about gold and silver rallying to new highs nearly every day? Where was the question about the Fed’s credibility when it totally missed the sub-prime crisis and referred to it as a contained event? What has the Federal Reserve done a good job at besides causing inflation based bubbles immediately followed by nasty busts. However, the real question still remains, what does the future hold for financial markets?

What I’m about to say may surprise readers, but history supports my thought process. If the Federal Reserve continues on the same path it is possible that the U.S. Dollar could go through a real currency crisis. The potential for such an event is intensified by the fact that Asia and Europe are raising interest rates due to inflationary pressures. Time will tell, but gold and silver remain strong, however I would not fall in love with either commodity, or any commodity for that matter. Whether we have a currency crisis or not, there is going to be one nasty sell off in commodities in the future, specifically in silver.

I agree with many market prognosticators in that we are in a commodity bubble. The weekly chart of silver futures below illustrates just how parabolic the move has been:
SIart options
At some point the U.S. Dollar will bottom, and when it does a significant rally will take shape. When the U.S. Dollar rallies it has the potential to be sharp and fast. Silver would be hit hardest as the chart above shows the parabolic move higher that has transpired over the past few months. The timing of the U.S. Dollar’s bottom is difficult to quantify, and picking bottoms is a fool’s game. Nevertheless, the commodity charts will tell us when it’s time for the rally to unfold, but for right now prices will likely continue higher for commodities and equities.

While I think longer term precious metals investors might be able to withstand the impending selloff, the other side of that selloff will likely see gold and silver work higher still. Longer term gold and silver will likely perform well, but traders must be aware that a sharp pullback is not only likely, but would be considered healthy by many market participants. The Dollar Index weekly chart illustrates the sharp selloff in the U.S. Dollar the past few months.
usdart options
While several articles have been proffered by authors I respect deeply, they have not offered a means to determine when the Dollar has bottomed. While nothing is full proof, the longer term SPX chart may be a guide as to when the U.S. Dollar will begin to bottom. The SPX weekly chart shown below illustrates the long term ascending channel that the S&P 500 has been trading in for some time.

My “educated guess” as to when the Dollar will begin to bottom will likely coincide with a test of the ascending trend line. In previous articles, I opined that I thought we would see the S&P 500 rally and we are in that process now. My guess is that about the time the S&P 500 tests the rising channel, we will see the U.S. Dollar begin to bottom. The short opportunities that will be presented from a risk / reward perspective could be outstanding. Cycles typically line up, particularly when one particular asset, in this case the U.S. Dollar, are driving markets in one particular direction for a long period of time.
spxart options
Typically business cycles end when commodities and commodity based stocks such Exxon or Barrick Gold rally. We are in that stage of the business cycle right now, and typically when that stage has been reached it is indicative that the economy is starting to overheat. Cyclicality in financial markets has been discussed for years, but often times technical analysis will align with the business cycle. While I may not be exactly right as to the timing, it certainly gives a solid framework for risk-based decisions going forward.

Conclusion

I believe that the actions taken by the Federal Reserve for the past 2-3 years are going to result in additional selling pressure in the future for the U.S. Dollar which will propel commodity prices and equity futures prices higher than what many will expect. While the selloff may occur within the confines of a short to intermediate term time frame, the U.S. Dollar will eventually bottom and a nasty selloff in commodities and stocks will transpire and the next leg of the secular bear market will begin. The business cycle and the technicals are aligned at this point, the question is really how long it is going to take to get there.

The end game will likely result in the Federal Reserve looking foolish while the American people and the global economy will suffer from the Fed’s ineptitude. The possibility that the Federal Reserve is forced to raise interest rates to slow down inflation at the same time the U.S. Dollar bottoms is a recipe for a potential economic disaster.

Slowing economic conditions based on higher oil prices and inflationary pressures paired with higher interest rates will result in another recession fueled by the Federal Reserve’s Keynes based economic models and decision making. Ben Bernanke was right about one thing, the Federal Reserve uses educated guesses based on their models when setting monetary policy. I posit to readers, what happens if the Federal Reserve Chairman and Governors’ price models and educated guesses are completely false?

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