Editor’s Note: Today’s sharp rally in gold futures and the new closing high in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) reinforces the historical high risk buy level of current gold prices basis the starc band analysis. GLD is once again very close to the daily starc+ band but volume was less than half seen at the last highs.
Can gold go $30 or $50 higher, of course but getting greedy is never a good idea. Instead of selling the Oct. 180 GLD you may want to sell the 190, especially if gold continues higher but pick you level and protect your profits.
The more-than-20% gain in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) since the July 1 close has been relentless, and domestic and global news has provided daily reinforcement that gold is the only “safe” investment.
As gold has powered to several new highs over the past two weeks, the only thing missing has been analysts who are voicing even a short-term bearish outlook for the yellow metal. In fact, it has almost become un-American to question whether gold will ever stop going higher.
It is important to separate the short-term from the long-term trend analysis. The monthly on-balance volume (OBV) analysis of both GLD and the Comex gold futures is still pointing higher, as it has been for the past seven years. The same is also true for the weekly analysis, so one might ask, “What’s the problem?”
The Starc band analysis can be used to identify high- and low-risk areas to buy or sell based on daily, weekly, or even monthly time frames. When a market reaches a historically high-risk buying area using both the weekly and the monthly analysis, the odds of some consolidation or a more significant pullback are very high. From a money-management point of view, this can allow even long-term investors to protect profits by hedging their positions.
Click to EnlargeChart Analysis: The monthly chart of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) shows that we are currently trading above the monthly Starc+ band at $173.30. The monthly Starc- band is at $133.56.
- Since 2006, this condition has only occurred twice. In April and May 2006, GLD traded above the monthly Starc+ band (point 1). By June 2006, GLD had dropped 23.8% from the May highs
- GLD also traded above the monthly Starc+ band for three months from January through March 2008 (point 2), as it rose 20% from high to low
- This was followed by an eight-month correction that took GLD from $100.44 to $66, which was a 34.3% decline
- The monthly OBV is now above the April 2011 highs and shows a pattern of higher highs since 2006
On the weekly chart of GLD, I have highlighted those times when the weekly Starc+ band analysis has identified a high-risk level for buying.
- For the week ending May 13, 2006, GLD closed above the Starc+ band for the fourth consecutive week (point 3). The following week, GLD closed below the prior week’s low, signaling the start of a correction
- In 2008, GLD tested the Starc+ band many times but only traded above it for one week
- In late-November 2009 and into early December (point 4), GLD traded above the weekly Starc+ band for two weeks before starting a multi-month correction. GLD declined from a high of $119.54 to a low of $102.28
- In April and May 2011 (point 5), GLD traded but did not close above the weekly Starc+ band and then consolidated for the next eight weeks
- The April high was confirmed by an upside breakout in the OBV, as it overcame resistance at line d
- The OBV has made significant new highs over the past few weeks, which is bullish for the intermediate term
- The insert shows that GLD traded above the weekly Starc+ band both last week and this week
- The long-term uptrend on the weekly chart, line c, is currently at $142
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