Crop Progress: Excessive Heat Diminishes Crop Conditions

by Colvin & Co

According to today’s USDA weekly progress report of the 18 primary corn producing states, the percentage of crop rated good or excellent fell by three percentage points to 66% over this past week. The percentage of crop rated poor or very poor increased by two percentage point to 11%, while the percentage of crop rated fair increased to 23% from 22% the previous week. Condition ratings still remain behind the 2010 crop, as 72% of the corn crop was in good or excellent condition, 19% was in fair condition, and 9% was in poor or very poor condition. Challenges continue to mount for the 2011 corn crop as seasonality hot weather and limited amounts of precipitation are anticipated over much of the corn belt for the next 7-10n days.

The USDA estimates that for the week ending July 17th, 35% of the 2011 corn crop has silked compared to estimates of 62% and 47% for the 2010 crop and 5 year historical average respectively. Of the 18 primary producing states, this past week saw the last three remaining states report silking progress. Missouri is the only state whose corn crop is ahead of its five year average and 2010 pace at 74% silked.

For the 18 primary soybean producing states, crop conditions worsen over the past week. The percentage of crop rated good or excellent decreased two percentage points to 64%. The percentage of crop rated fair remained unchanged at 26%, and the percent rated poor or very poor increased two percentage points to 10%. Compared to last year 67% was rated good or excellent, 24% was rated fair, and 9% was rated poor or very poor.

The USDA estimates that 40% of the soybean crop has bloomed, compared to 58% last year, and a 5 year historical average of 52%. For the week ending July 17th, only Missouri and Louisiana are ahead of their five year average and 2010 blooming pace.

Progress in the winter wheat harvest continued over the past week, with harvest concluding in Texas, beginning in Oregon, South Dakota, and Washington, but harvests in Idaho and Montana yet to start. The USDA reports harvested winter wheat estimates for the week ending July 17th, at 68% of the total crop, compared to a 5 year average and 2010 estimate of 72% and 70% respectively.

The USDA estimates that 73% of the spring wheat crop was rated good or excellent, unchanged from last week, but still below the 82% registered a year ago. Headed spring wheat, is also lagging its five year average and 2010 performance. The USDA reported that 60% of the crop has headed compared to 84% for the same period in 2010 and a 5 year historical average of 88%.

Bullish trend-lines in both old and new crop contracts appear to be forming in corn, soybeans, and wheat after last week’s WASDE Report. We expect this to continue as weather patterns conducive to high yields appear to be nonexistent across most major growing regions. Corn prices rebounded from two weeks ago and were $0.18 higher over the past week closing at $6.97 per bushel, soybeans increased $0.37 to close at $13.83 per bushel, and wheat jumped $0.49 to $6.88. Corn, soybean, and wheat prices all remain higher year-over-year up, 83%, 37%, and 18% respectively.

Next week we will have our first look at the USDA corn crop dough and soybean pod setting estimates, along with the usual estimates provided in this report.

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