by Agrimoney.com
Canada's canola harvest may set a record high, the country's farm ministry said, as it followed Lanworth in flagging the benefit to crops from recent rains, lifting estimates for grain yields too.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada raised its estimate for domestic canola production this year by 500,000 tonnes to 14.6m tonnes, reflecting a raised estimate for plantings highlighted by an official sowings report last month.
The estimate left the crop just 8,000 tonnes short of the record high set two years ago.
And the ministry flagged the potential for an upward revision to its forecast, given recent storms which provincial officials have cautioned caused some crop damage.
Upgrade ahead?
AAFC said that it was relying for now on a forecast of an average yield for the rapeseed variant of 1.85 tonnes per hectare.
However, while the "production forecast assumes normal growing conditions, the widespread moisture and warm growing temperatures during the last half of June and early July are expected to support higher, rather than lower, yields than forecasted".
The US Department of Agriculture has already factored in a 15.0m-tonne Canadian crop, although AAFC was 150,000 tonnes more upbeat on the country's exports – the world's biggest - pegging them at 7.65m tonnes
The International Grains Council pegs the harvest at 14.5m tonnes and exports at 7.6m tonnes.
Wheat prospects
The AAFC comments follow a 1.9m-tonne upgrade, to 29.8m tonnes, by Lanworth in its forecast for the Canadian wheat crop.
"Temperatures, precipitation, and soil moisture have ranged from average to moderately cool and wet during June-July across core wheat production areas of Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan," the analysis group said, terming these conditions "favourable".
AAFC trimmed its estimate for domestic wheat output by 200,000 tonnes to 29.2m tonnes, reflecting a reduced sowings number revealed by last month's planting report.
Nonetheless, it nudged higher by 0.02 tonnes per hectare, to 2.84 tonnes per hectare, its forecast for wheat yields, upgrading numbers for barley, corn and oats too.
Price forecast
The ministry said that canola prices would remain "relatively strong" despite the harvest upgrade to a level 9.7% above last year's results, which was depressed by poor weather and elevated levels of disease.
It forecast canola prices averaging Can$560-600 a tonne in Vancouver in 2013-14, down from Can$650-670 a tonne in 2012-13.
However, November canola futures have actually been on a losing spree from an early June high, losing some 8% to close at Can$523.60 a tonne on Wednesday, hurt by improved prospects for 2013 production besides by hopes for rapeseed crops abroad too.
'Very good crop conditions'
Oil World last week raised by 700,000 tonnes to 20.34m tonnes its forecast for the European Union rapeseed harvest, the world's biggest, citing "good results" from the early harvest.
"Latest information from the fields points to good and partly very good crop conditions in the major growing countries," Oil World said, although poor weather earlier in the season in France and, especially, the UK will curtail output in these countries.
In Paris, November rapeseed stood at E385.50 a tonne on Thursday, down 0.6% on the day and down some 11% from its early-June top.
Prices have also been damaged by the prospect of curbs by the European Union to production of biodiesel, made largely in the bloc from rapeseed oil.
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