Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Corn watching weather, while old-crop soybeans remain tight

By Allendale Inc

Corn: In all, analysts are not expecting much of a change on the corn side of Thursday’s report. Yield will be expected to remain the same, as well as acreage. It is important to know that the USDA has never changed corn acreage on this July report. Any changes to acreage would be more likely on the August report with an even higher chance on the October report.

Bulls are looking for weather scares to justify bouncing this corn market past 510. Bears will actively sell bounces and as long as there are no major threats, will continue following the trend lower…Ryan Ettner
Soybeans: Crop ratings released after the close Monday showed that 67% of the crop is rated good to excellent. This is below the market estimate of 68%. The report also showed that 10% of beans are in the blooming stage.

Monday’s export inspections came in at 19,185 (1,000 bushels), which could be considered friendly. The tight situation in the old-crop beans should continue to provide support for the old-crop beans and bulls spreads, as it looks like we still have some rationing to do to make sure we literally do not run out of beans.

As for new-crop beans, Allendale has a long-term bearish view…Jim McCormick


  • The wheat complex finished Monday higher on big sale of SRW to China overnight, but the gains were limited as the wheat harvest continues.
  • Spring wheat conditions improved 4% from last week to 72%.  The winter wheat harvest is now 57% complete versus the 5-year average of 64%.
  • September Chicago wheat has found good support at current price levels, but it seems rallies will be short lived due to concerns of large world supply… Alex Bassett
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