by Agrimoney.com
Oil World offered support to sagging hopes for Chinese soybean imports, warning of a decline in the country's domestic oilseeds harvest which will whet its appetite for purchases of foreign supplies.
Many investors, both in Beijing and abroad, are dubious over a US Department of Agriculture estimate that China's soybean imports, the world's biggest, will surge some 10m tonnes to a record 69m tonnes in 2013-14.
One major European commodities house said at the weekend that "the trade is unconvinced" by the USDA forecast, which has gained particular scepticism amid signs of a slowdown in China's important manufacturing sector, and with concerns over bank lending too.
"Although they expect them to rise to 62m-65m tonnes," a figure at this level, in falling short of USDA forecasts, "could add volume back to global ending stocks", implying lower price potential.
'Multi-year low'
However, Oil World said on Tuesday that China's imports of oilseeds overall faced pressure from a harvest set to fall to a "multi-year low" of 48m tonnes, "down 2m tonnes from a year earlier and down 3.8m tonnes from two years earlier".
Parts of China have been unduly dry, including the southern North China Plain where weather service MDA warned that "some dryness continues to develop", although recent rains – which have hurt the quality of the wheat harvest – have improved conditions in many areas.
The fall in domestic oilseeds production, "along with the comparatively low Chinese soybean stocks at the start of the new season, will result in a pronounced increase of total Chinese oilseed imports in 2013-14", the analysis group, referring to an August-to-July crop year.
Indeed, China looks set for a strong finish to 2012-13 too, with the country seen importing 8.0m tonnes of soybeans last month, a rise of 57% month on month and 43% year on year.
The country has also been raising imports of rapeseed, which hit a record 1.66m tonnes in the first five months of 2013, Oil World said.
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