by Doane Advisory Services
Corn still seems to be suffering from the WASDE report. Although Monday’s USDA report seemed supportive of U.S. corn prices, it also boosted the global carryout forecast significantly. That development, along with the negative bean data, weighed upon CBOT futures yesterday and again last night. May corn slipped 1.0 cent to $4.7725/bushel Monday night, while December sagged 1.0 to $4.77.
The soy complex remained weak in early Tuesday trading. In its monthly WASDE report Monday the USDA cut its forecasts of the Brazilian soybean crop and domestic carryout predictions less than was generally expected. The large drop that followed apparently had a significant technical component in the wake of recent gains, so the overnight follow-through wasn’t terribly surprising. May soybeans declined 4.25 cents to $14.145/bushel early Tuesday morning, while May soyoil bounced 0.07 cents to 43.93 cents/pound, and May soymeal slid $0.8 to $443.9/ton.
The wheat markets moved mostly higher Monday night. Yesterday’s WASDE report actually seemed supportive of the wheat outlook, since the USDA did not raise its forecast U.S. carryout as many expected. However, bulls in the golden grain markets seemed to throw in the towel as beans lead the crop markets lower. Traders cited long-liquidation in the wake of recent gains. Thus, the overnight bounce makes sense, with bulls looking for a resumption of the preceding rally. May CBOT wheat futures edged up 1.5 cents to $6.4225/bushel as Tuesday dawned over Chicago, while May KCBT wheat futures were flat at $7.1125, but May MWE futures lost 1.75 to $6.91.
Cattle futures proved mixed again Monday night. Despite continued wholesale strength and a sizeable discount to cash prices, the nearby April cattle contract proved surprisingly weak Monday. Traders seem worried about beef sticker shock amongst consumers this spring. Summer futures rose yesterday, but flattened overnight. The April futures also reversed its slip, rebounding moderately this morning, possibly to renewed cash optimism. April cattle futures bounced 0.27 cents to 143.42 cents/pound early Tuesday, while August stalled at 134.45. Meanwhile, April feeder cattle sank 0.02 cents to 175.70 cents/pound, but August inched up 0.02 to 178.02.
Hog futures sustained their massive rally in early Tuesday action. Talk of sharply reduced hog supplies this spring and summer, along with surging cash and wholesale values powered Monday’s big hog advance and continued doing so overnight. The rally could reverse at any time, but shows no sign of doing so at this juncture. April hogs jumped 1.10 cents to 117.10 cents/pound in pre-dawn Tuesday trading, while June soared 1.30 to 124.80.
Cotton futures are weak after floundering Monday. Yesterday’s USDA data indicated improved U.S. fiber exports and lower ending stocks this year, which might easily have powered ICE cotton futures higher. The fact that the New York market could manage only very modest gains implies underlying weakness, so few in the industry can be particularly surprised by the overnight slippage. May cotton dipped 0.30 cents to 91.26 cents/pound just after sunrise (EDT) Tuesday, while December cotton tumbled 0.32 cents to 79.46.
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