Monday, September 9, 2013

Cotton gains on strong export sales, U.S. crop development

By Jack Scoville


General Comments: Futures closed higher on some short covering to end the week. Export sales were stronger than anticipated to provide a reason to buy. U.S. crop development remains behind because of delayed planting this year, but crop conditions right now are generally good. Very hot weather conditions in China continue, and the weather in Cotton areas is not really improving right now in that country. However, recent rains have helped hold the crop. Weather is moderate in the U.S. Texas is dry and warm. Weather for Cotton still appears good in India. The market is getting ready for the harvest, and any rallies now might be very limited in scope.

Overnight News: The Delta will be dry and Southeast will see a few showers late in the week. Temperatures will average above normal in the Delta and mostly above normal in the Southeast. Texas will see dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA spot price is now 79.89 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.018 million bales, from 0.018 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 82.70 and 81.20 October. Support is at 82.80, 82.30, and 81.80 October, with resistance of 84.00, 85.05, and 85.30 October.


General Comments: Futures closed a little higher. It is now past the midpoint of the hurricane season and all remains mostly quiet. However, the historically biggest part of the season is coming up. There are still no real threats showing in the tropical Atlantic for Florida. The one system of interest is flowing east of the state in the ocean. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing near normal temperatures and mostly dry weather, but production areas will turn warmer again this weekend.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers. Temperatures will average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 129.00 and 121.00 November. Support is at 131.00, 129.00, and 126.00 November, with resistance at 137.00, 139.00, and 140.00 November.

Next page: Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa


General Comments: Futures were a little higher in all markets. London was higher as deliverable supplies are falling. The cash market seemed relatively quiet. Most Brazil Coffee producers are not offering much right now after the Real moved higher last week. Coffee appears to be available in Central America as farmers and mills clear inventories before the next harvest. Colombia is offering Coffee into the cash market at weaker differentials. Buyers are said to be well covered. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America. Central America crop conditions are said to be good overall. Colombia is still reported to have good conditions. Harvest conditions are good in Brazil.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are near unchanged today and are about 2.784 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 112.79 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 116.00, 114.00, and 111.00 December, and resistance is at 120.00, 122.00, and 125.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1750, 1730, and 1720 November, and resistance is at 1800, 1825, and 1840 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 134.50 and 123.50 December. Support is at 139.00, 137.00, and 134.00 December, and resistance is at 145.50, 148.50, and 150.50 December.


General Comments: Futures closed a little lower on reports in moderate volume trading. There is not much on offer in the cash market for now. Processors in Brazil remain more interested in Ethanol production. There is good weather for Sugar production in India, and the crop is expected to be big there. Countries like Thailand and India also expect more production this year, and both countries are actively offering their supplies into the world market. Demand for ethanol has been good. Chinese demand has been soft, but Middle East demand is good. Price appears to be in a trading range for now due to solid demand and big production. Short term trends are now sideways.

Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and moderate temperatures. China produced 137,000 tons of Sugar in July, up 15.1% from last year. Calendar year to date production is now 11.05 million tons, up 14.8% from last year.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1745 and 1780 March. Support is at 1710, 1700, and 1680 March, and resistance is at 1750, 1765, and 1780 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 494.00 December. Support is at 479.00, 475.00, and 471.00 December, and resistance is at 485.00, 488.00, and 494.00 December.


General Comments: Futures closed higher on follow through chart based buying. There is not much offer now as West Africa is between crops. Ideas are that crop conditions there are generally improving. West Africa is expected to get scattered showers, and conditions there are said to be improving for almost all producers. Temperatures are moderate. The harvest will be getting underway soon. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern areas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.607 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2610 and 2720 December. Support is at 2545, 2525, and 2505 December, with resistance at 2590, 2605, and 2620 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1710 and 1770 December. Support is at 1670, 1660, and 1650 December, with resistance at 1710, 1740, and 1770 December.

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