Wednesday, September 4, 2013

Coffee climbs as supplies start to dry up

By Jack Scoville


General Comments: Futures were a little higher in all markets as traders noted little on offer. London was higher as deliverable supplies are falling. The cash market seemed relatively quiet, although Robusta differentials are said to be firming again as supplies start to dry up. However, wire reports indicate that Vietnam producers have started to harvest, and there is some talk that the crop could be as much as 27 million bags. Differentials are expected to start lower next month when export offers are expected. Most Brazil coffee producers apparently plan to move Coffee into the support programs and hope for higher prices, and that has cut offers to the market. Differentials overall appear weak for Arabica. Coffee appears to be available in Central America as farmers and mills clear inventories before the next harvest. Colombia is offering Coffee into the cash market at weaker differentials. Markets are very quiet, with little buyer interest seen and little selling interest reported. Buyers are said to be well covered. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America. Central America crop conditions are said to be good overall. Colombia is still reported to have good conditions. Harvest conditions are good in Brazil.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.791 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 112.71 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry conditions or light showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 116.00, 114.00, and 111.00 December, and resistance is at 120.00, 122.00, and 125.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1750, 1735, and 1730 November, and resistance is at 1800, 1825, and 1840 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 134.50 and 123.50 December. Support is at 137.00, 134.00, and 131.00 December, and resistance is at 145.50, 148.50, and 150.50 December.


General Comments: Futures closed a little lower and short term trends are down. Futures traded lower as traders weighed slow crop development against improving conditions and improved weather. Buyers have pulled away from the market and will wait for a bottom to form before buying in a big way. Very hot weather conditions in China continue, and the weather in Cotton areas is not really improving right now in that country. However, some showers are in the forecast to provide some help. Weather is moderate in the US. US crops remain behind the normal pace, but overall crop ratings are high and current conditions are called good. Texas is dry and warm. Weather for Cotton still appears good in India. The USDA crop progress and conditions report did not show improved crop conditions, and some new buying could surface today.

Overnight News: The Delta will be dry and Southeast will see a few showers. Temperatures will average above normal in the Delta and mostly above normal in the Southeast. Texas will see dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA spot price is now 79.37 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.018 million bales, from 0.021 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 82.70 and 81.20 October. Support is at 81.80, 81.20, and 80.00 October, with resistance of 84.00, 85.05, and 85.30 October.


General Comments: Futures closed lower and showed signs of breaking down from the recent trading range. It is the midpoint of the hurricane season and all remains mostly quiet. There are still no real threats showing in the tropical Atlantic for Florida or orange production as has been the case for the entire season until now. The weather in the tropics has started to show a little more life as some of the conditions for tropical development have improved, but there are no threats showing anywhere right now. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers are reported and conditions are said to be very good in almost the entire state. Temperatures are warm. Brazil is seeing below normal temperatures and mostly dry weather, but production areas will turn warmer again this weekend.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for some showers. Temperatures will average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 129.00 and 121.00 November. Support is at 129.00, 126.00, and 125.50 November, with resistance at 137.00, 139.00, and 140.00 November.


General Comments: Futures closed higher on reports of new demand from Iraq and Syria. Iraq has been buying Sugar all along, but Syria is having a tough time getting offers. There is a lot of Sugar in the world, but not much on offer in the cash market for now. The buying yesterday seemed more chart based in nature and less fundamental based. The Brazilian Real remains relatively weak and traders think Brazil will offer more for export. However, processors there remain more interested in Ethanol production as it pays better. Traders are also noting good weather for Sugar production in India, and the crop is expected to be big there. Countries like Thailand and India also expect more production this year, and Thailand is offering. Demand for ethanol has been good, but there is still a lot of Sugar and the supply side fundamentals seem to overwhelm any demand side strength over time. Chinese demand has been soft, but Middle East demand appears to be relatively good. Price appear to be in a trading range for now due to solid demand and big production.

Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and moderate temperatures Short term trends are now sideways.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1625, 1610, and 1595 October, and resistance is at 1650, 1665, and 1685 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 473.00, 470.00, and 465.00 October, and resistance is at 481.00, 486.00, and 488.00 October.


General Comments: Futures closed lower as traders noted better rains in West Africa. Ideas are that crop conditions there are generally improving, and these ideas pushed many speculators to sell again yesterday. Price trends turned down with the selling late last week. West Africa is expected to get scattered showers, and conditions there are said to be improving for almost all producers. Ghana has been getting rains, too. Temperatures are moderate. The harvest will be getting underway soon, and has already begun in Nigeria, with mixed results so far there. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern áreas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.607 million bags. The ICCO estimates a production surplus of 52,000 tons this year, from 60,000 tons last estimate.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2395 and 2285 December. Support is at 2405, 2390, and 2365 December, with resistance at 2455, 2505, and 2525 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1525 and 1470 December. Support is at 1610, 1600, and 1580 December, with resistance at 1660, 1670, and 1705 December.

See the original article >>

No comments:

Post a Comment

Follow Us