Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Weather reigns in the grain markets

By Allendale Inc

Corn: While the short-term outlook offers many chances for bounces in this market, the long-term outlook continues to call for a slow grind lower. Potential China buying can offer the short-term bounces, but as long as the weather offers no major threats to the crop, the grind lower will continue. Today’s weather update offered good rains for most areas after the heat this week, then generally dry from day 6 through 10 and then more rain in the 11- to 15-day outlook…Ryan Ettner
Soybeans: The rating released after the close showed that 65% of the crop was rated good to excellent, down two from last week. With the weather models showing a heat dome locking in and rain in the forecast for the end of the week traders viewed weather with a bearish bias.

Export inspections came in at 3.670 million bushels which was within the trade's expected range of 2.0 to 5.0 million bushels. With this month’s reports out of the way, weather will be the dominate feature that will move the market day to day for the new crop beans. As long as there is talk of a heat in the forecast an we would think breaks will be supported near term.

Allendale has a long-term bearish view of for the new crop beans and is currently looking for a “fall low” of $10.54. Old-crop beans will stay firm as the market attempts to ration demand…Jim McCormick


  • Weekly wheat export inspections came in at 24.458M bu, which was neutral with the estimates of between 24-28M bu.
  • Russia is in talks with Egypt about delivering wheat on a humanitarian basis as Egypt’s political unrest has made things difficult for the world’s biggest wheat importer to obtain the required food supplies to feed the people of Egypt.
  • The wheat complex finished the day lower due to a weak corn market and favorable forecast for the spring wheat crop.
  • The winter wheat crop is now 67% harvested, which is slightly behind the 5-year average of 71%.  The spring wheat good-to-excellent conditions fell 2% from last week to 70% this week.
  • September Chicago wheat found resistance at the 20 day MA of 679’0 and finished weaker on the day… Alex Bassett

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