General Comments: Futures closed lower on a weaker Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar. UNICA showed less production in the second half of June, but this had been expected by the trade. Any expect production to be higher overall due to a record Sugarcane production and better weather now. Sao Paulo was on holiday yesterday to keep action from there on the quiet side. Futures trends remain down overall, and New York prices had an outside day down yesterday, implying further losses are possible this week. There is still a lot of Sugar around, and not only from Brazil. The Indian monsoon is off to a good start and this should help with Sugarcane production in the country. Northern areas are in good shape, but southern areas might be too hot and dry and some stress to the Sugarcane is possible in the short term. In addition, industry sources there told wire services this week that planted area is down by about 5% and that overall production would be lower even with very good weather.
Overnight News: Mostly dry weather is forecast in Brazil. Temperatures should average near to above normal. USDA bought 91,238 tons of Sugar from US producers yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1580 October. Support is at 1620, 1600, and 1570 October, and resistance is at 1650, 1665, and 1690 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 465.00 and 448.00 October. Support is at 470.00, 469.00, and 466.00 October, and resistance is at 476.00, 480.00, and 485.00 October.
COTTON (NYBOT:CTV13)
General Comments: Futures were higher on a weaker US Dollar that helped demand ideas and also on ideas that crop conditions are getting worse in Texas. Traders were also getting prepared for the next round of USDA supply and demand estimates today. Parts of the Southeast are getting too much rain and Texas growing areas remain mostly hot and dry. Conditions in Alabama, Mississippi, and Missouri are below average now. Futures held the short term range. It is possible that futures can work lower again as demand has turned soft, but production and weather might be more important in the short term. Weather for Cotton appears good in India, Pakistan, and China.
Overnight News: The Delta should be dry and Southeast will see showers and rains Thursday through the weekend. Temperatures will average near normal. Texas will be mostly dry. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA spot price is now 82.89 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.606 million bales, from 0.612 million yesterday. ICE said that 70 notices were posted today and that total deliveries are now 2,943 contracts. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 32,700 bales this year and 58,000 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 100 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 86.00, 85.20, and 84.00 October, with resistance of 87.00, 87.45, and 88.00 October.
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed lower again as tropical system Chantal began to fade and became less a threat to groves. Some speculative profit taking was noted by traders as many look forward to new production data from USDA today. Ideas are that production will be unchanged. The tropical system is too late to hurt the current production as the harvest is mostly over, but a big storm now could severely impact the coming production. Showers are reported and conditions are said to have improved in almost the entire state. Ideas are that the better precipitation will help trees fight the greening disease. Temperatures are warm in the state, but there are showers reported. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 145.00 and 155.00 September. Support is at 132.00, 130.00, and 127.00 September, with resistance at 138.00, 139.00, and 140.00 September.
COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and Sao Paulo on some long liquidation and new selling tied to a weaker Brazilian Real against the US Dollar. London moved higher on some speculative buying tied to less offer from Vietnam on ideas that producers there are about sold out. Offers from origin are still hard to find. Demand was not much stronger than the offer and the cash market remains very quiet. Sellers, including Brazil, are quiet and are waiting for better prices of the next crop. Buyers are interested on cheap differentials, and cheap futures. Brazil weather is forecast to show dry conditions, but no cold weather. Current crop development is still good this year. Central America crops are seeing good rains now. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.745 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 117.86 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry weather except for some showers in the northeast. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted against July today and that total deliveries for the month are now 810 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 120.00, 117.00, and 116.00 September, and resistance is at 125.00, 126.00, and 127.00 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1900 September. Support is at 1820, 1790, and 1755 September, and resistance is at 1880, 1905, and 1940 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 143.50, 140.00, and 137.00 September, and resistance is at 148.00, 150.00, and 151.00 September.
COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower in range trading. Many are waiting for the US and European grind data to be released next week to see how strong the demand is right now. Ideas of good harvest weather and active movement of beans to ports in western Africa remain. The cash market in Africa is slow right now as buyers have already bought and are now waiting to see how the main crop turns out late this year. The weather is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains. Some showers are appearing again in Ivory Coast this week, and the rest of the region is in good condition. Ivory Coast will still need more rain. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Chart trends are mixed, but price action is weak.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.886 million bags. ICE said that 1 delivery notice were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are 376 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2165, 2130, and 2100 September, with resistance at 2210, 2250, and 2280 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1500, 1460, and 1445 September, with resistance at 1550, 1560, and 1600 September.
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