by Agrimoney.com
Commentators such as Allendale, Goldman Sachs and RJ O'Brien warned over the potential for US farm officials to cut a forecast for corn sowings, amid questions over the methodology used in compiling the estimate.
The US Department of Agriculture on Friday sent prices of Chicago's best-traded corn futures contract tumbling 5% by revealing that growers had sown 97.4m acres with the grain, a rise of 100,000 acres from initial intentions.
Investors had expected a figure of 95.3m acres, reckoning that a spring which was record wet in some areas had forced farmers to abandon some areas, or at least switch them to later-sown crops such as soybeans.
However, while December corn futures on Monday came under further selling pressure, driving them to a near-18-month low at one point, losses were limited to 0.9% as of 12:30 UK time (06:30 Chicago time) amid doubts over the accuracy of the data.
"Many are looking at the planted acreage number as unbelievable," Paul Georgy at Allendale, the Illinois-based broker, said.
Timing issue?
The report came under criticism for its methodology, in including plantings completed as of, at the latest, June 15 during a sowing season when, thanks to the delayed sowings, many farmers were still in the thick of seeding activity.
"We must remember that the data for Friday's report was taken from a survey of producers in early June at a time when producers still believed they were going to get their crops in the ground," Mr Georgy said.
At Rice Dairy, chief feed grains analyst Jerry Gidel restated "concern about the USDA's timing of this year's survey of acreages not revealing the total impact of 2013's wet spring".
Goldman Sachs also flagged that risk that farmers chose "to abandon corn planting after the USA survey was conducted".
… or would area have been bigger still?
However, another theory for the apparent discrepancy emerged too, supporting the idea of higher sowings - that growers may have understated corn sowing intentions in the USDA's initial survey, in March.
"The reason the corn acreage actually increased from the March Intentions report of 97.3m acres is that actual corn acres would have been over 99m acres if the weather had been supportive," Darrell Holaday at Country Futures said.
"We have talked endlessly about the fact that USDA was not picking up the increased acreage from pasture ground and [released from environmental programmes] that had become crop ground over the last couple of years. They have finally begun to reconcile those numbers."
Goldman Sachs also highlighted the possibility that the "USDA's March forecast had underestimated true planting intentions", with the 97.4m-acre forecast "actually reflecting the acreage cut contemplated by consensus".
Nonetheless, Goldman analyst Damien Courvalin said that the bank expected the sowings data "to be revised, with our bias towards a lower corn acreage", but showing wider plantings of soybeans than the 77.7m acres indicated on Friday.
Chicago broker RJ O'Brien raised its forecast for corn sowings in 2013, but to 96.65m acres, some 750,000 acres short of the USDA estimate
Wheat question
Separately, the USDA data on wheat sowings, showing farmers planted 12.3m acres with spring wheat, some 200,000 acres more than investors expected, also attracted questions given the extent to which waterlogging affected farmers in some northern US areas.
"I didn't see a big push to plant wheat the later it got," Brian Henry at Benson Quinn Commodities said.
At Macquarie, Chris Gadd said that even the 12.3m-acre number, "in conjunction with the loss in spring wheat planting area that was reported in Canada last week breeds further concern for global supplies of quality wheat".
Macquarie has, among other commentators, cautioned that while the world wheat harvest looks like turning out strong on volume this year, ample supplies of high-quality grain are not yet assured.
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