by Agrimoney.com
The glowing early reports on the northern hemisphere wheat harvest turned a notch dimmer amid restated doubts over some former Soviet Union crops, and in the southern hemisphere with growing concerns for newly-sown crops in Western Australia too.
Reports on the early northern hemisphere grains harvests remain encouraging overall, as it ramps up from initial cuts in southern Russia and the US, with early results from Spain coming in strong.
Early Spanish barley cuts, an early indicator of the European Union cereals crop, "suggest excellent yields", averaging 7.5m tonnes per hectare so far in the north of the country, a major European commodities house said.
While this figure came from crops grown largely on irrigated land, "so average productivity will certainly be lower, it is a promising start for a country which has a five-year average yield of around 4 tonnes per hectare for winter barley," the commodities house said.
INTL FCStone analysts, returning from a field trip to northern Spain, reported expectations of yields of more than 8m tonnes for winter barley, with test weights "also being reported as being up on last year, at around 67 kilogrammes per hectolitre", a rise of 3 kilogrammes per hectolitre.
The strong crop prospects put Spain, a major European consumer of feed barley, on track for a "small surplus" in the grain in 2013-14 the commodities house said, flagging a potentially negative impact for exporters to the country, such as the UK which could see its "barley prices put under yet more pressure".
Former Soviet Union reports
However, while INTL FCStone also noted reports of strong rises in grain yields from the former Soviet Union so far, with Ukraine yields up 50%, some other commentators had a more negative spin.
Agritel, which has an office in Ukraine, termed the early Ukraine harvest "disappointing", saying that "spring dryness could have affected national production", while noting some setbacks in Russia too.
The agriculture ministry forecast of a 95m-tonne grains harvest, including 54m tonnes of wheat, "doesn't seems possible given the situation in the field", the consultancy said.
The beginning of harvest in the southern area of Kuban two weeks early reflects dry conditions towards the end of crop development which "could affect grains quality", cutting by 35% the amount of the local crop making milling grade, Agritel said.
"In addition, weather conditions are too cold in Siberia where plantings have been delayed.
"This could affect spring wheat quality with a drop in gluten rate", leaving "a significant part" of the crop potentially only suitable for feed use.
'Concerns surrounding ongoing dryness'
Separately, Rabobank reported "some concerns surrounding ongoing dryness" in Russia's Volga region as it slashed to 40m tonnes, from 55m tonnes, its forecast for the rise in world wheat production in 2013-14.
The bank's updated world crop estimate is in line with that from the US Department of Agriculture.
Rabobank also noted "quite mixed" reports for yields and protein from the US hard red winter wheat crop, which is broadly seen as having got off to a better-than-expected start, allowing a drop in the premium of Kansas City-traded hard red winter wheat over Chicago's soft red winter wheat.
Minneapolis-based broker Benson Quinn Commodities also reported a "wide range of protein levels" from the hard red winter wheat harvest, adding that a "few areas dealing with damp conditions".
'Some lost area'
Rabobank furthermore revealed that fears over dryness this month in Western Australia, where newly-sown crops are establishing, had hardened into reduced crop forecast.
"Australian production expectations have been trimmed due to some lost area in the eastern wheat belt in Western Australia," the bank said, in a briefing written by Australia-based staff.
Much of the Western Australia grain belt has received less than 40% of normal June rainfall, with Geraldton getting less than 10% of average levels, Luke Mathews at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said.
"The Western Australia grain belt is unfavourably dry and will stay that way for at least another week," he added.
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