COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher in reaction to the USDA supply and demand estimates that showed more demand and less ending stocks. It also cut production estimates due to poor weather in the South. USDA anticipates more demand from China. World estimates continued to show big supplies,, but a big part of that is located in China and will not be generally available.. Traders also talk of reduced production potential due to the poor weather seen until recently in the Delta and Southeast and still reported in parts of Texas. Trends are up. Ideas of good weather for US crops are still around. Traders are worried about Chinese demand, but there is talk that overall demand increased in the last week. The weather has improved, but it is still too dry in Texas and drier weather is needed for the Delta and Southeast. Dry conditions are forecast for the Delta and Southeast, and dry and warm weather is expected in Texas. Weather for Cotton appears good in India, Pakistan, and China.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will get dry weather. Temperatures will average above to much above normal. The USDA spot price is now 85.86 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.536 million bales, from 0.533 million yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 101,100 bales this year and 97,300 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 1,800 bales this year and 1,700 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 9140 and 9550 July. Support is at 88.40, 87.60, and 81.70 July, with resistance of 90.50, 91.15, and 91.60 July.
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed lower even though USDA showed another reduction in Oranges production in Florida. It seemed to be a buy the rumor and sell the fact situation as decreased production had been expected.. Traders are wrestling with more reports of losses from greening disease on the one side and beneficial rains that have hit the state on the other. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item and will be for several years. Temperatures are warm in the state. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for light showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 148.00, 145.00, and 144.00 July, with resistance at 154.00, 156.00, and 159.00 July.
COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York on speculative selling tied to reports of bigger production in Colombia and Brazil, and weakness continued in London due to ideas of big supplies from producers, mostly from Vietnam. Arabica cash markets remain quiet right now and roasters in the US are showing little interest in buying. There is talk of increasing offers of Robusta from producers as they apparently did not sell when prices were much higher. Most sellers, including Brazil, are quiet and are waiting for futures to move higher. Buyers are interested on cheap differentials. Brazil weather is forecast to show dry conditions, but no cold weather. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil. Central America crops are seeing good rains now. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are unchanged today and are about 2.746 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 117.17 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry weather except for some showers in the southwest on Sunday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 116.00 July. Support is at 119.00, 116.00, and 113.00 July, and resistance is at 125.00, 127.00, and 130.00 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1765 July. Support is at 1770, 1740, and 1710 July, and resistance is at 1810, 1845, and 1865 July. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with no objectives. Support is at 147.00, 144.00, and 140.00 September, and resistance is at 155.00, 159.00, and 161.50 September.
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower due to ideas of big world supplies. There was no other real news for the market besides the USDA data. The price action overall remains weak and implies that further losses are coming down the road due to coming Brazil supplies. Traders remain bearish on ideas of big supplies, especially from Brazil. Traders in Brazil expect big production as the weather is good. Demand is said to be strong from North Africa and the Middle East, but starting to fade now as needs are getting covered.
Overnight News: Showers are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1620, 1610, and 1570 July. Support is at 1620, 1600, and 1570 July, and resistance is at 1660, 1675, and 1700 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 474.00, 470.00, and 467.00 August, and resistance is at 481.00, 486.00, and 487.00 August.
COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher and showed potential to make a new leg up. There was not a lot of news for the market, and price action reflected this. It looks like the buying was based on the charts as New York futures could not move to new lows and in fact have held at an important área on the charts. But, ideas of weak demand after the recent big rally kept some selling interest around. The weather is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains. The mid crop harvest is moving to completion, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.113 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2480 and 2520 July. Support is at 2340, 2325, and 2280 July, with resistance at 2400, 2420, and 2425 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1540, 1520, and 1505 July, with resistance at 1575, 1580, and 1600 July.
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