Friday, March 4, 2011

USDA staff call time on Argentine soybean optimism

by Agrimoney.com

US Department of Agriculture attaches in Buenos Aires have warned against upbeat forecasts – including the department's own – for Argentina's soybean harvest, saying many farms missed out on crop-reviving rainfall.
The attaches kept at 49m tonnes their forecast for Argentina's 2010-11 soybean crop, a 10% drop on last season's, saying that "scattered rains did not benefit all areas".
"It does not change the story entirely."
While some parts of Buenos Aires province, and worst affected areas of Cordoba and Santa Fe, had "received more rain in January than they did during the previous year", reviving crops which had been tested a dearth of moisture since November, other regions "were not so lucky".
An area comprising 20% of Argentina's soybean sowings "received much less rain than during the previous year".
Here, "crop conditions remain varied, with dry patches in fields, short, stunted plants and wilted plants".
Range of estimates
The comments come ahead of the USDA's monthly Wasde report on global crop supply and demand, due on Thursday, a key event in the agricultural commodities calendar.
The USDA currently has the crop at 49.5m tonnes, ranking it the world's third biggest, behind America's and Brazil's.
Argentine deputy agriculture secretary, Oscar Solis, two weeks ago pegged the harvest at "above 50m tonnes, for sure".
Other analysts, such as Oil World and Michael Cordonnier, have raised their estimates for the crop in recent days, although to figures below 49m tonnes.
Michael Cordonnier, at Soybean and Corn Advisor, on Tuesday lifted his forecast by 1.5m tonnes to 48.5m tonnes, citing "good rains".
Rabobank on Friday kept its estimate at 48m tonnes.

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