Wednesday, March 26, 2014

The Calm Before The USDA Storm on Monday

By: Paul Georgy

Volume continues to be light as we approach the big report at the end of the month. If you look back at the last 5 years, the one thing we can say is that we will see volatility on Monday.  New crop corn has seen an average of 20 ½ cents in either direction whereas beans have been plus or minus 36 ½ cents. Old crop contracts have seen much more in the way of movement. Informa came out with projections yesterday and really didn’t get the market to react much. Corn projections were at 93.029 and beans at 81.204. The average trade guess is 93.014 for corn and 81.162 for beans. Allendale’s farmer based survey has bean acres over 83 million and just over 92 million for corn.

We continue to hear talks of Chinese crushers reselling cargoes of Brazilian beans to the US for April-July shipments and could be as many as 8-10 cargoes. Oil World has projected South American beans at 151.45 MMT vs. previous estimate of 150.6 MMT.

Hogs finished limit down yesterday as weak long positions were taking profits. PED findings fell for the second week and it seems like we have seen the worst for now. The Hog and Pigs report on Friday will be very important to see if we can get bullish numbers to keep the trend up. There is a big fund position that has pushed into the hogs and could cause a sharp reaction lower if they decide to come out. Cutout values were down .25 cents to 131.39.

Cattle closed unchanged yesterday with box beef up .13 cents for choice and down 1.48 for select. There was some light trade in Kansas at 150. Cattle are finding support this morning but will we see cash trade higher this week and break the 150.50 record high that we have hit 3 times before?

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