Friday, July 5, 2013

Joe Friday-King Dollar hasn’t done this in 8-years! Bullish for stocks?

by Chris Kimble

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King Dollar hasn't been able to "Close on a Monthly basis" above line (1) for the past 8 years. The US$ is working on a breakout above this 8-year line and is breaking above the top of the bullish ascending triangle, both at (3) in the chart above.

Most would think a US$ rally would be bearish for stocks and it was for almost 8 years! The chart below reflects from 2003 to 2011 (pink shaded area) the US$ and the S&P500 have been non-correlated (moving in opposite directions. Since 2011 the two have been correlated (moving in the same direction). 

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Joe Friday.... The US$ is working on a breakout above an 8-year resistance line. (Since the top chart is of monthly closing prices, a true breakout would take place on a close above this line.)  For the breakout of the US$ to be negative, this high degree of correlation needs to end!

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