By Jack Scoville
COTTON (NYBOT:CTV13)
General Comments: Futures moved higher on some forecasts for dry weather to return this week to Texas, but held the recent trading range on reports of improved conditions in Texas. Temperatures are warmer again in Texas and rain was reported in central and western parts of the state, including key Cotton producing areas last week. The rains there are called very beneficial. Conditions in Alabama, Mississippi, and Missouri are below average now, but will see warm temperatures and some showers this week as temperatures turn somewhat cooler. It is possible that futures can continue to work lower over time as demand has turned soft and as the weather is getting better in almost all US production areas. However, follow through buying is possible early this week. Weather for Cotton still appears good in India, Pakistan, and China.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see showers off and on all week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will see drier weather this week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA spot price is now 82.34 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.447 million bales, from 0.468 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 87.50, 89.60, and 92.50 October. Support is at 85.50, 85.20, and 84.30 October, with resistance of 86.50, 87.00, and 87.50 October.
FCOJ (NYBOT:OJU13)
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in quiet and range bound trading. There is not much new surrounding the FCOJ market these days, and the tropics remain quiet for now. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers and storms are reported and conditions are said to have improved in almost the entire state. Ideas are that the better precipitation will help trees fight the greening disease. Temperatures are warm in the state, but the precipitation is the key right now. The tropics appear quiet and there are no storms in view. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather, and there are reports of stress to trees and the potential for lower production. It could turn cold in some production areas early next week.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for showers. Temperatures will average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 155.00 September. Support is at 140.00, 136.50, and 134.00 September, with resistance at 146.00, 147.00, and 149.00 September.
COFFEE (NYBOT:KCU13)
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York on speculative selling tied to changed forecasts for colder and wetter conditions for Brazil Coffee areas. Forecasts showed some moderation in temperatures, but there is still a chance for some damaging temperatures this week. In addition, the rain could disturb the last of the harvest and it could get cold enough to freeze in Parana, which is not all that far away from Coffee producing areas, and that areas in Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo could get frost if not more. Chart trends are up in London, but turned mixed on Friday in New York and Sao Paulo. London moved higher on some buying tied to less offer from Vietnam on ideas that producers there are about sold out. Current crop development is still good this year. Central America crops are seeing moderate to light rains. Colombia is still reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.751 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 120.77 ct/lb. Brazil should get some showers off and on all week. Temperatures will average near to above normal, but below normal next week with frosts and perhaps a freeze possible in southern areas. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 120.00, 119.00, and 118.00 September, and resistance is at 127.00, 129.00, and 132.00 September. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 1940, 1900, and 1850 September, and resistance is at 2000, 2010, and 2025 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are up with objectives of 156.00 and 164.00 September. Support is at 146.00, 143.00, and 140.00 September, and resistance is at 152.00, 155.00, and 159.00 September.
SUGAR (NYBOT:SBV13)
General Comments: Futures closed higher on what appeared to be some speculative buying that appeared once October held a support area on the charts. Speculators are still very short in this market and have decided to cover some of these positions in the aftermath of forecasts calling for wet and cold weather this week in Brazil. There is not much new to talk about here besides the weather. Futures trends remain down overall and price action has been weak until last week as most expect a big production surplus for the year. News that Brazil mills intend to concentrate on Ethanol production at the expense of Sugar production help to put a floor under the market. Many expect production to be higher overall in Brazil due to a record Sugarcane production, and countries like Thailand and India also expect more production this year. The Indian monsoon is good so far this season and this should help with Sugarcane production in the country. Less production of Sugar beets is reported from Russia and Ukraine as farmers there elected to plant more grains.
Overnight News: Brazil could see colder and wetter weather this week.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1615, 1595, and 1570 October, and resistance is at 1650, 1665, and 1690 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 461.00, 459.00, and 457.00 October, and resistance is at 468.00, 470.00, and 476.00 October.
COCOA (NYBOT:CCU13)
General Comments: Futures closed higher on speculative buying tied to the North American grind that was very strong. The US data was much above trade expectations and should produce stronger prices again this week. Weather remains generally good in Africa. Ghana and Nigeria would appear to have the best rains, but it remains a little too dry in many parts of Ivory Coast. Temperatures are moderate. A few showers are appearing again in Ivory Coast this week, but Ivory Coast will still need more rain. Other west African countries are reported to have good conditions. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.774 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2350, 2300, and 2280 September, with resistance at 2380, 2440, and 2470 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1640 September. Support is at 1590, 1560, and 1550 September, with resistance at 1640, 1660, and 1680 September.
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