COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower on speculative selling tied to ideas of big production coming from Brazil. Traders note that there are showers in the forecast but doubt there will be any big delay to the harvest or any loss of quality. Most sellers, including Brazil, withdrew offers after futures broke down on Wednesday and remain hard to get offers from so far this week. Or, they offer at higher differentials. Buyers are waiting for prices to drop even more, but need coffee and will buy if the differentials offered are good. Brazil weather is forecast to show some showers for this week, but no cold weather. Trends are down due to the expected large production in Brazil. It is speculators who keep pushing the futures lower as they anticipate ever increasing supplies. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, but it has been dry. Central America crops are mostly harvested and is too dry for good new crop flowering. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are near unchanged today and are about 2.755 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 120.37 ct/lb. Brazil should get showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions away from some showers in Eastern Mexico and northern Central America. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 126.00 and 116.00 July. Support is at 125.00, 122.00, and 119.00 July, and resistance is at 133.00, 135.00, and 138.00 July. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1910, 1890, and 1880 July, and resistance is at 1950, 1970, and 1980 July. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with no objectives. Support is at 156.00, 153.00, and 150.00 September, and resistance is at 161.50, 166.00, and 170.00 September.
COTTON
General Comments: Futures were lower again in July, but a little higher in the other months. The market has been trying to turn trends down, but bulls have been fighting to hold the market and send it higher again. US economic data has been improving, implying that demand might be so bad this year after all, especially with Cotton prices relatively low right now. The weather has improved in all areas with some precipitation in Texas areas and drier weather in the forecast for the next few days for the Delta and Southeast. Big rains are expected in the Delta and Southeast over the weekend, and some areas of the Delta got big rains last weekend to slow down the planting pace. Traders also were looking for new signs of demand, but are not finding much new. Ideas are that the demand can continue for now as China moves to increase its stocks. Planting conditions for the next crop remain a problem in the US. Dry weather is forecast for the Delta and Southeast, and warm weather is expected in Texas this week. Ideas are that farmers can get a lot of planting done with dry and warm conditions.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see dry conditions or afternoon showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will get mostly dry weather, but showers are possible on Saturday. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. The USDA spot price is now 76.98 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.509 million bales, from 0.509 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 80.90 July. Support is at 81.00, 80.10, and 79.00 July, with resistance of 82.90, 83.60, and 85.00 July.
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed higher on follow through buying from last week. The move came even though Neilsen reported less demand in the latest four week survey. Traders are wrestling with more reports of losses from greening disease on the one side and beneficial rains that have hit the state on the other. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item and will be for several years. Irrigation is widespread, even with recent rains. Temperatures are warm in the state. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather, but some showers are possible late this week.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for scattered afternoon showers through the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal this week and near normal this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 160.00 and 177.00 July. Support is at 145.00, 144.00, and 139.00 July, with resistance at 150.00, 153.00, and 156.00 July.
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed slightly lower in consolidation trading. News of another big production period in the first half of May in Brazil was negative. Also negative was news that USDA is asking sellers of world Sugar to look for other places to sell besides the US due to big supplies here already. USDA might have to buy the surplus here and dump i ton the market, mostly to ethanol processors if possible. The price action overall was weak and implies that further losses are coming due to coming Brazil supplies. However, the market is trying top ut together a bottom for now as demand has surfaced and rain in Brazil has delayed the harvest. There were some reports of shipments getting booked ahead of the Ramadan holiday to give some demand to the market. Traders remain bearish on ideas of big supplies, especially from Brazil. Traders in Brazil expect big production as the weather is good. Demand is said to be strong from North Africa and the Middle East as buyers get stocks in hand for Ramadan in July. Chart patterns are weak.
Overnight News: Showers are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should average near to above normal. UNICA in Brazil said that the center south first half of May Sugar crush was 39.95 million tons, up 90% from last year. Sugar production was 2.06 million tons, twice as much as last year. Ethanol production was 1.6 billion liters, more tan doublé last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1610 and 1600 July. Support is at 1650, 1620, and 1600 July, and resistance is at 1700, 1720, and 1740 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 470.00, 467.00, and 464.00 August, and resistance is at 481.00, 487.00, and 491.00 August.
COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower on good weather in Africa and weak demand ideas. The market is accelerating down and could son find a support área. Ideas are that processors are not active in the market right now and are hoping for lower prices before buying again. Soime processors have large stocks to work down as well as many bought early due to the new marketing program in Ivory Coast. The weather is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperaturas and some rains. Ideas are that production in West Africa could be less next crop year as well despite the improved weather as farmers have not liked offered prices. The mid crop harvest is moving to completion, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.011 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2170 July. Support is at 2200, 2185, and 2170 July, with resistance at 2250, 2275, and 2285 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1500 and 1405 July. Support is at 1490, 1470, and 1440 July, with resistance at 1515, 1520, and 1535 July.
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