Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Grain prices revive, as buyers queue for supplies

by Agrimoney.com

The rebound in grain futures found extra legs on fresh production fears, and signs that buyers are rushing to cash in on prices which remain amongst their lowest of the year.
Early news that South Korean feed groups Nonghyup Feed and Major Feedmill Group were seeking a total of 250,000 tonnes of corn was followed up by reports that Sri Lanka had bought US winter wheat on Friday and that other Asian buyers were testing the market.
"With consumers viewing price dips as a buying opportunity, demand indicators are likely to strengthen on these lower price levels," said Sudakshina Unnikrishnan at Barclays Capital, noting talk that millers in Indonesia, Malaysia the Philippines and Thailand were also "enquiring about corn and wheat shipments after the recent price drop".
There were rumours of a fresh purchase by China too of a further 500,000 tonnes of corn over the weekend, following a buy-up of a reputed 1.6m tonnes during last week's break.
'Artificially accelerated'
Commerzbank analysts said: "Importers are evidently taking advantage of lower prices and seem to share our view that this drop in prices, following the revision of US inventory and acreage figures, will not last for long."
Corn prices, which suffered their worst sell-off in 15 years on Thursday after official data showed far higher US sowings and inventories of the grain than had been thought, revived 2.8% to $6.23 ½ a bushel, for September delivery, in Chicago's overnight electronic trading session.
Chicago wheat for the same month soared 3.5% to $6.33 ¾ a bushel, with European contracts higher too.
Paris wheat for November, the best-traded contract, stood up 2.6% at E198.00 a tonne in afternoon deals, taking its rebound in three trading sessions above 7%.
London wheat for November was 2.5% higher at £166.50 a tonne.
"There was a lot of feeling that last week's [price] collapse was artificially accelerated by fund sales, and that looks to have been borne out with what is happening today," a UK trader told Agrimoney.com.
'Issue bulls need?'
Indeed, besides demand pressures telling on prices, there were signs of supply threats too, with reports that French wheat yields were, so far, coming in 20-35% below last year's levels, and rain threatening Ukraine's harvest.
"The market has been unsettled by heavy rain impacting Ukrainian harvest forecasts," Commerzbank said.
Consultancy Agritel said: "The persistent rains over southern Russia and Ukraine continue to degrade the quality."
Furthermore, hot weather is being seen as a revived threat in the US.
"The central US weather has a high pressure ridge with above-normal temperatures for the next two weeks," US Commodities said.
"A hot and dry pattern could emerge, and may be the weather issue bulls need if rains are not produced."

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