Tuesday, February 8, 2011

World coffee stocks slip as exports soar

by Agrimoney.com

World coffee exports jumped by nearly one-third in December, led by demand for the arabica variety, experts said – as prices for highest-grade Kenyan beans hit the equivalent of $20,440 a tonne.
World coffee exports in December were, at nearly 10.4m bags, up 32% on the same month in 2009, data from the International Coffee Organisation showed.
The increase was particularly strong in arabica beans, the type traded in New York, for which exports jumped by some 40%.
By country, Brazil, the world's top producer and exporter, saw a 35% jump to 3.4m bags in shipments, helping make its four-quarter performance a record one, at 10m bags.
'Coffee was needed' 
The boost took exports for the whole year, which had been running 1.4% lower year on year, to 97.5m bags, a 1.4% increase over the 2009 figure.
A rise in shipments might be expected, given that 2010 was an "on" year in the Brazilian cycle, which sees alternate seasons of stronger and lower production, Jose Sette, the ICO executive director, said.
"It is unlikely that this performance will be maintained in crop year 2011-12,"
However, he noted that prices had maintained their strength despite the splurge of supplies onto export markets, and indeed have set a series of 13-year highs in New York and two-year tops in London, which trades the robusta beans of which Vietnam is the top producer.
"It looks like this coffee was needed," he said.
'Very low stocks' 
Indeed, the ICO flagged that opening inventories in exporting countries were "unlikely" to have exceeded 13m bags in 2010-11, compared with 20.9m bags a year before, and the lowest since at least the 1960s.
"Stocks are at very low levels," Mr Sette said.
This tightness was also reflected in certified inventories  held by exchanges which, in New York, fell for at least the 12th successive month in January to 1.85m bags, down 44% year-on-year.
Stocks of London's robusta beans edged higher last month but remained, at 3.88m bags, down 31% on January 2010.
All-time high
The short world supplies of coffee, coupled with concerns over north African unrest, were viewed as behind a further increase in the price of Kenyan coffee to a record $1,022 per 50kg bag at the weekly auction in Nairobi.
Kenya's supplies, which are particularly prized for their quality, have been further hit by weather setbacks.
The country, unlike African neighbours, has suffered poor coffee growing weather with unusually late and heavy rains early in 2010 damaging flowering before dry conditions damaged yields of fruit which did set.
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