Sunday, April 6, 2014

Warnings underline stock market’s earnings conundrum

By William L. Watts

BMO’s Belski: Inflection point as market transitions to fundamental-led growth

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Earnings season kicks off this week with results from Alcoa and J.P. Morgan Chase, once again putting the disconnect between slow profit growth and a record-setting stock market in the spotlight.

Obviously, sluggish earnings growth over the past three years hasn’t held back stocks. In fact, the period has been characterized by companies guiding estimates lower ahead of earnings season, then topping those lowered expectations when it’s time to report.

Breaking that chain will require a couple of things: organic growth accompanied, and led by, sales growth, said Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, in a phone interview. Organic growth is an increase in output resulting from core business activities and excludes gains from takeovers, acquisitions or mergers.

“We continue to believe that’s the next phase of the bull market – meaning sales growth and organic growth,” Belski said.

The S&P 500 /quotes/zigman/3870025/realtime SPX -1.25%  and the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/zigman/627449/realtime DJIA -0.96%  both notched all-time highs Friday in the aftermath of the March jobs report, but later turned south as a tech-led rout sent the Nasdaq Composite /quotes/zigman/12633936/realtime COMP -2.60%  to its lowest close in eight weeks.

The S&P 500 ended Friday with a 0.4% weekly gain, while the Dow saw a 0.6% weekly rise. The Nasdaq was left in negative territory with a 0.7% weekly decline.

Earnings kickoff

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. /quotes/zigman/272085/delayed/quotes/nls/jpm JPM -1.40%  on Friday morning will be the first Dow component to report earnings for the calendar first quarter. Wall Street analysts expect earnings of $1.42 a share on revenues of $24.4 billion, according to FactSet. Former Dow component Alcoa Inc. /quotes/zigman/246295/delayed/quotes/nls/aa AA -0.86%  will report Tuesday, an event still viewed by some traders as the unofficial kickoff for earnings season.

Meanwhile, a near-record 93 companies in the S&P 500 have issued negative guidance on earnings per share while 18 have offered positive guidance, according to FactSet. That’s the second-highest number of profit warnings since FactSet started tracking guidance data in 2006. The record was set in the fourth quarter of last year, when 95 companies issued negative warnings.

Earnings for the S&P 500 are forecast to decline 1.2% in the first quarter, which would mark the first year-over-year decline since the third quarter of 2012, according to FactSet. As of Dec. 31, analysts were estimating first-quarter earnings would grow 4.3%.

While that sounds disconcerting, the S&P 500 is up around 72% since September 2011 despite S&P 500 earnings growth over the same period remaining below 10% every quarter, noted strategists at Pavilion in Montreal, in a note. Gains have been driven by multiple expansion — in other words, investors’ willingness to pay more for a dollar of earnings.

History and past market bubbles indicate multiple expansion can continue from current levels, they said, but observed that price/earnings multiples are above the firm’s measure of fair value.

Time to deliver

While hope has moved markets in the past, “if company managers want their share price to continue to rise, they should not rely on multiple expansion. It’s time for them to start delivering on earnings,” the Pavilion strategists said.

Nevertheless, it’s clear the constant stream of earnings caution is wearing a little thin with some strategists.

“Excuse us for being a little skeptical of the naysayers but this will be the sixteenth quarter or so in a row where we are being cautioned about earnings,” wrote Jeffrey Yale Rubin, strategist at Birinyi Associates, in a note.

BMO’s Belski said he sees 2014 as a transition year from growth led by multiple expansion and fueled by ultra-loose monetary policy to a bull market led by fundamentals.

There are encouraging signs, he said.

“Fourth-quarter earnings were pretty good, but what did not receive a lot of attention was that sales growth surprised to the upside,” he said.

But that was lost in the mix because investors are fixated on the “quality” of earnings — whether or not there were buybacks, profit margins and the like — rather than the “real story,” Belski said.

What’s the real story? “How earnings are going to be growing and how profits are going to be growing going forward and not just managed. And that’s why we still think 2014 is a transition year away from stocks being driven by monetary policy and toward being driven by fundamentals,” he said.

As far as first-quarter earnings are concerned, it will be interesting to see if weakness in emerging markets translates into a positive for U.S. companies, Belski said. BMO has been looking for that scenario on the idea that emerging-market woes will drive business.

Loss of momentum

Meanwhile, investors will also be wrestling with the aftermath of the sharp selloff in so-called momentum stocks, which sent some prominent names, including Facebook Inc. /quotes/zigman/9962609/delayed/quotes/nls/fb FB -4.61%  and Tesla Motors /quotes/zigman/118681/delayed/quotes/nls/tsla TSLA -5.85% ,  into bear territory.

The economic calendar is relatively sparse in terms of first-tier data. Investors will no doubt pay close attention to the release Wednesday of the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve policy makers.

At the March meeting, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, in her first news conference since taking the helm of the central bank, briefly shook up markets after she said tightening could begin around “six months” after the Fed brings its bond-buying program to a close—a timetable that implied rates could begin to rise earlier in 2015 then investors had penciled in.

“The reality is the minutes are likely to reflect a committee divided on this topic,” wrote economists at RBC Capital Markets.

“Ultimately, this means the Fed’s message will remain decidedly blurry. We remain of the view the Fed won’t raise rates until Q4 2015,” they said, in a note.

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Inflation Watch: Global Food Disruptions, Commodity Prices Soar

By Benjamin Shepherd

According to the latest monthly report issued by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, global inflation has been relatively tame, with consumer prices rising just 1.4 percent in its 34 member countries through February. That’s a slight moderation from January’s reading of 1.7 percent and essentially mirrors the situation here in the U.S., where inflation ticked up by just 1.1 percent last month.

But while the overall global inflation trend is currently flat to down, if you drill into specific inflationary components you’ll see a very different picture.

The graph below shows the CRB/BLS Foodstuffs Index which tracks the spot price of 10 agricultural commodities; butter, cocoa, corn, hogs, lard, soybean oil, sugar, Minneapolis wheat and Kansas City Wheat. Since touching a 1-year low on December 19, the index has shot up by nearly 21 percent to a new 1-year high.

A separate foodstuffs index tracked by the American Farm Bureau Federation showed a 3.5 percent year-over-year increase in March, largely thanks to double-digit increases in the price of bacon and ground chuck while basics such as bread, milk and eggs also posted gains in the high single-digits.

According to the Department of Agriculture, food prices here in the U.S. are expected to increase by between 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent this year.  If they do break the 3 percent mark, it will likely be the largest increase since 2011 and more than double last year’s 1.4 percent rise.

The rising cost of food isn’t an isolated U.S. problem. The United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization’s global food price index showed a big 2.3 percent year-over-year swing in March, hitting the highest level in nearly a year. If you drill down, the price of grains alone soared 5.2 percent to their highest cost since August. Sugar posted the largest increase of 7.9 percent with dairy prices being the only one to show a decrease in the month.

Here in the U.S. the soaring food prices are largely thanks to bad weather over the past several years. Droughts across much of the Western US and Texas have pushed grain prices higher, boosting feed costs and forcing ranchers to pare back their herds. That, in turn, has increased the cost of meat and dairy products across the country. The prices of other vegetables have also shot up thanks to dry weather across much of our country’s agricultural heartland over the past few years.

It is not just our own weather impacting American food prices, though. Drought in Brazil also spurred huge increases in the cost of coffee, sugar and oranges just to name a few affected commodities.

Even the weather isn’t solely to blame, with politics playing a role as well.

Thailand has been racked by strikes and protests as the legitimacy of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s government has been questioned by many Thais. Protestors have blocked traffic, spooked tourists and managed to sufficiently disrupt recent elections that they will have to be held again. Strikes have also forced the country’s agricultural sector to a virtual halt, prompting a spike in sugarcane prices and raising concerns over the region’s rice supply.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine’s Crimea has also prompted a spike in corn and wheat prices. Ukraine is the fifth-largest wheat exporter and the third-largest corn exporter in the world, sending about 10 million tons of wheat and 18.5 million tons of corn abroad. That’s roughly 16 percent of the global grain supply.

Given that most of Ukraine’s major ports are located in Crimea, there have been concerns that exports could be disrupted, especially if the crisis escalates. While prices have eased a bit after contributing to the major spike in European prices last month, they remain elevated and could spike again if Russia makes another aggressive move in the region.

In this era of globalization the world’s food supplies are so interlinked that disruptions anywhere, regardless of whether they’re related to weather or politics, have significant impacts on the rest of the world. The same is true for any component of the commodities complex, whether it is metals, energy or agriculture. So don’t let seemingly benign headline numbers lull you into a sense of security. By Benjamin Shepherd, republished with permission, InvestingDaily

The government has a number of incentives to misstate the true level of inflation in the economy, and the recent budget battle between President Obama and Congress is an excellent example of that.

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All The Presidents' Bankers: The Hidden Alliances That Drive American Power

by Tyler Durden

The following is an excerpt from ALL THE PRESIDENTS’ BANKERS: The Hidden Alliances that Drive American Power by Nomi Prins (on sale April 8, 2014).  Reprinted with permission from Nation Books. Nomi Prins is a former managing director at Goldman Sachs.


NIXON’S BANKERS: When What Was Good for Wall Street Was Good for the President

Wall Street’s War

While the protests against the Vietnam War intensified in the first years of the Nixon administration, the financial elite was fighting its own war—over the future of banking and against Glass-Steagall regulations. National City Bank chairman Walter Wriston was a steadfast warrior in related battles, as he fought with Chase chairman David Rockefeller for supremacy over the US banker community and for dominance over global finance.

Rockefeller’s sights were set on a grander prize, one with worldwide implications: ending the financial cold war. He made his mark in that regard by opening the first US bank in Moscow since the 1920s, and the first in Beijing since the 1949 revolution.

Augmenting their domestic and international expansion plans, both men and their banks prospered from the emerging and extremely lucrative business of recycling petrodollars from the Middle East into third world countries. By acting as the middlemen—capturing oil revenues and transforming them into high-interest-rate loans, to Latin America in particular—bankers accentuated disparities in global wealth. They dumped loans into developing countries and made huge amounts of money in the process. By funneling profits into debts, they caused extreme pain in the debtor nations, especially when the oil-producing nations began to raise their prices. This raised the cost of energy and provoked a wave of inflation that further oppressed these third world nations, the US population, and other economies throughout the world.

Bank Holding Company Battles

When Eisenhower signed the 1956 Bank Holding Company Act banning interstate banking, he left a large loophole as a conciliatory gambit: a gray area as to what big banks could consider “financially-related business,” which fell under their jurisdiction. In practice, that meant that they could find ways to expand their breadth of services while they figured out ways to grow their domestic grab for depositors. On May 26, 1970, the “Big Three” bankers— Wriston and Rockefeller, along with Alden “Tom” Clausen, chairman of Bank America Corporation—appeared before the Senate Banking and Currency Committee to press their case for widening the loophole.

During the proceedings, Wriston led the charge on behalf of his brethren in the crusade. Tall, slim, elegantly dressed, and the most articulate of the three, he dramatically called on Congress to “throw off some of the shackles on banking which inhibit competition in the financial markets.”

The global financial landscape was evolving. Ever since World War II, US bankers hadn’t worried too much about their supremacy being challenged by other international banks, which were still playing catch-up in terms of deposits, loans, and global customers. But by now the international banks had moved beyond postwar reconstructive pain and gained significant ground by trading with Cold War enemies of the United States. They were, in short, cutting into the global market that the US bankers had dominated by extending themselves into areas in which the US bankers were absent for US policy reasons. There was no such thing as “enough” of a market share in this game. As a result, US bankers had to take a longer, harder look at the “shackles” hampering their growth. To remain globally competitive, among other things, bankers sought to shatter post-Depression legislative barriers like Glass-Steagall.

They wielded fear coated in shades of nationalism as a weapon: if US bankers became less competitive, then by extension the United States would become less powerful. The competition argument would remain dominant on Wall Street and in Washington for nearly three decades, until the separation of speculative and commercial banking that had been invoked by the Glass-Steagall Act would be no more.

Wriston deftly equated the expansion of US banking with general US global progress and power. It wasn’t so much that this connection hadn’t occurred to presidents or bankers since World War II; indeed, that was how the political-financial alliances had been operating. But from that point on, the notion was formally and publicly verbalized, and placed on the congressional record. The idea that commercial banks served the country and perpetuated its global identity and strength, rather than the other way around, became a key argument for domestic deregulation—even if, in practice, it was the country that would serve the banks.

The Penn Central Debacle

There was, however, a fly in the ointment. To increase their size, bankers wanted to be able to accumulate more services or branches beneath the holding company umbrella. But a crisis in another industry would give some legislators pause. The Penn Central meltdown, the first financial crisis of Nixon’s presidency, temporarily dampened the ardency of deregulation enthusiasts. The collapse of the largest, most diverse railroad holding company in America was blamed on overzealous bank lending to a plethora of non-railroad-oriented entities under one holding company umbrella. The debacle renewed debate about a stricter bank holding company bill.

Under Wriston’s guidance, National City had spearheaded a fifty-three-bank syndicate to lend $500 million in revolving credit to Penn Central, even when it showed obvious signs of imminent implosion.

Penn Central had been one of the leading US corporations in the 1960s. President Johnson had supported the merger that spawned the conglomerate on behalf of a friend, railroad merger specialist Stuart Saunders, who became chairman. He had done this over the warnings of the Justice Department and despite allegations of antitrust violations called by its competitors. With nary a regulator paying attention, Penn Central had morphed into more than a railroad holding company, encompassing real estate, hotels, pipelines, and theme parks. Meanwhile, highways, cars, and commercial airlines had chipped away at Penn Central’s dominant market position. To try to compensate,
Penn Central had delved into a host of speculative expansions and deals. That strategy was failing fast. By May 1970, Penn Central was feverishly drawing on its credit lines just to scrounge up enough cash to keep going.

The conglomerate demonstrated that holding companies could be mere shell constructions under which other unrelated businesses could exist, much as the 1920s holding companies housed reckless financial ventures under utility firm banners.

Allegations circulated that Rockefeller had launched a five-day selling strategy of Penn Central stock, culminating with the dumping of 134,400 shares on the fifth day, based on insider information he received as one of the firm’s key lenders. He denied the charges.

In a joint effort with the bankers to hide the Penn Central debacle behind a shield of federal bailout loans, the Pentagon stepped in, claiming that assisting Penn Central was a matter of national defense.5 Under the auspices of national security, Washington utilized the Defense Production Act of 1950, a convenient bill passed at the start of the Korean War that enabled the president to force businesses to prioritize national security–related endeavors.

On June 21, 1970, Penn Central filed for bankruptcy, becoming the first major US corporation to go bust since the Depression. Its failure was not an isolated incident by any means. Instead, it was one of a number of major defaults that shook the commercial paper market to its core. (“Commercial paper” is a term for the short-term promissory notes sold by large corporations to raise quick money, backed only by their promise to pay the amount of the note at the end of its term, not by any collateral.) But the agile bankers knew how to capitalize on that turmoil. When companies stopped borrowing in the flailing commercial paper market, they had to turn to major banks like Chase for loans instead. As a result, the worldwide loans of Chase, First National City Bank, and Bank of America surged to $27.7 billion by the end of 1971, more than double the 1969 total of $13 billion.

A year later, the largest US defense company, Lockheed, was facing bankruptcy, as well. Again bankers found a way to come out ahead on the people’s dime. Lockheed’s bankers at Bank of America and Bankers Trust led a syndicate that petitioned the Defense Department for a bailout on similar national security grounds. The CEO, Daniel Haughton, even agreed to step down if an appropriate government loan was provided.

In response, the Nixon administration offered $250 million in emergency loans to Lockheed—in effect, bailing out the banks and the corporation. To explain the bailout at a time when the general economy was struggling, Nixon introduced the Lockheed Emergency Loan Act by stating, “It will have a major impact on the economy of California, and will contribute greatly to the economic strength of the country as a whole.” After the bill was passed, not a single Lockheed executive stepped down.

It would take several years of political-financial debate and more bailouts to sustain Penn Central. One 1975 article labeled the entire episode “The Penn-C Fairy Tale” and condemned the subsequent federal bailout: “While the country is in the worst recession since the depression and unemployment lines grow longer every day, Congress is dumping another third of a billion dollars of your tax payer dollars down the railroad rat hole.” (The incident was prologue: Congress would lavish hundreds of billions of dollars to sustain the biggest banks after the 2008 financial crisis, topped up by trillions of dollars from the Fed and the Treasury Department in the form of loans, bond purchases, and other subsidies.)

More Bank Holding Company Politics

Despite the Penn Central crisis, the revised Bank Holding Company Act decisively passed the Senate on September 16, 1970, by a bipartisan vote of seventy-seven to one. The final version was far more lenient than the one that Texas Democrat John William Wright Patman, chair of the House Committee on Banking and Currency, or even the Nixon administration had originally envisioned. The revised act allowed big banks to retain nonbank units acquired before June 1968. It also gave the Fed greater regulatory authority over bank holding companies, including the power to determine what constituted one. Language was added to enable banks to be considered one-bank holding companies if they, or any of their subsidiaries, held any deposits or extended any commercial loans, thus broadening their scope.

President Nixon signed the bill into law without fanfare on New Year’s Eve 1970. In fact, his inner circle decided against making a splash about it. They didn’t think the public would understand or care. Plus, they realized that there was a prevailing attitude that the Nixon administration had favored the big banks, and though it had, this was not something they wanted to draw attention to.

The End of the Gold Standard

The top six banks controlled 20 percent of the nation’s deposits through one-bank holding companies, but second place in that group wasn’t good enough for Wriston, who noted to the Nixon administration that his bank was really the “caretaker of the aspirations of millions of people” whose money it held. Wriston flooded the New York Fed with proposals for expansion. His applications “were said to represent as many as half of the total of all of the banks.” The Fed was so overwhelmed, it had to enlist First National City Bank to interpret the new law on its behalf.

By mid-1971, the Fed had approved thirteen and rejected seven of Wriston’s applications. His biggest disappointment was the insurance underwriting rejection. The possibility of converting depositors for insurance business had been tantalizing. It would continue to be a hard-fought, ultimately successful battle.

Around the same time, New York governor Nelson Rockefeller (David Rockefeller’s brother) approved legislation permitting banks to set up subsidiaries in each of the state’s nine banking districts. This was a gift for Wriston and David Rockefeller, because it meant their banks could expand within the state. Each subsidiary could open branches through June 1976, when the districts would be eliminated and banks could merge and branch freely.

Several months later, First National City Bank was paying generous prices to purchase the tiniest upstate banks, from which it began extending loans to the riskiest companies and getting hosed in the process; a minor David vs. Goliath revenge of local banks against Wall Street muscle.

By that time, the stock market had turned bearish, and foreign countries were increasingly demanding their paper dollars be converted into gold as they shifted funds out of dollar reserves. Bankers, meanwhile, postured for a dollar devaluation, which would make their cost of funds cheaper and enable them to expand their lending businesses.

They knew that the fastest way to further devalue the dollar was to sever it from gold, and they made their opinions clear to Nixon, taking care to blame the devaluation on external foreign speculation, not their own movement of capital and lending abroad.

The strategy worked. On August 15, 1971, Nixon bashed the “international money speculators” in a televised speech, stating, “Because they thrive on crises they help to create them.”16 He noted that “in recent weeks the speculators have been waging an all-out war on the American dollar.” His words were true in essence, yet they were chosen to exclude the actions of the major US banks, which were also selling the dollar. Foreign central banks had access to US gold through the Bretton Woods rules, and they exercised this access. Exchanging dollars for gold had the effect of decreasing the value of the US dollar relative to that gold. Between January and August 1971, European banks (aided by US banks with European branches) catalyzed a $20 billion gold outflow.

As John Butler wrote in The Golden Revolution, “By July 1971, the US gold reserves had fallen sharply, to under $10 billion, and at the rate things were going, would be exhausted in weeks. [Treasury Secretary John] Connally was tasked with organizing an emergency weekend meeting of Nixon’s various economic and domestic policy advisers. At 2:30 p.m. on August 13, they gathered, in secret, at Camp David to decide how to respond to the incipient run on the dollar.”

Nixon’s solution, pressed by the banking community, was to abandon the gold standard. In his speech the president informed Americans that he had directed Connally to “suspend temporarily the convertibility of the dollar into gold or other reserve assets.” He promised this would “defend the dollar against the speculators.” Because Bretton Woods didn’t allow for dollar devaluation, Nixon effectively ended the accord that had set international currency parameters since World War II, signaling the beginning of the end of the gold standard.

Once the dollar was no longer backed by gold, questions surfaced as to what truly backed it (besides the US military). According to Butler, “The Bretton Woods regime was doomed to fail as it was not compatible with domestic US economic policy objectives which, from the mid-1960s onwards, were increasingly inflationary.”

It wasn’t simply policy that was inflationary. The expansion of debt via the joint efforts of the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve was greatly augmented by the bankers’ drive to loan more funds against their capital base. That established a debt inflation policy, which took off after the dissolution of Bretton Woods. Without the constraint of keeping gold in reserve to back the dollar, bankers could increase their leverage and speculate more freely, while getting money more easily from the Federal Reserve’s discount window. Abandoning the gold standard and “floating” the dollar was like navigating the waters of global finance without an anchor to slow down the dispersion of money and loans. For the bankers, this made expansion much easier.

Indeed, on September 24, 1971, Chase board director and former Treasury Secretary C. Douglas Dillon (chairman of the Brookings Institution and, from 1972 to 1975, the Rockefeller Foundation) told Connally that “under no circumstances should we ever go back to assuming limited convertibility into gold.” Chase Board chairman David Rockefeller wrote National Security Adviser (and later Secretary of State) Henry Kissinger to recommend “a reevaluation of foreign currencies, a devaluation of the dollar, removal of the U.S. import surcharge and ‘buy America’ credits, and a new international monetary system with greater flexibility . . . and less reliance on gold.”

With the dollar devalued, investors poured money into stocks, fueling a rally from November 1971 led by the “Nifty Fifty,” a group of “respectable” big-cap growth stocks. These were being bought “like greyhounds chasing a mechanical rabbit” by pension funds, insurance companies, and trust funds. The Chicago Board of Trade began trading options on individual stocks in 1973 to increase the avenues for betting; speculators could soon thereafter trade futures on currencies and bonds.

The National Association of Securities Dealers rendered all this trading easier on February 8, 1971, when it launched the NASDAQ. The first computerized quote system enabled market makers to post and transact over-the-counter prices quickly. With the stock market booming again, NASDAQ became a more convenient avenue for Wall Street firms to raise money. Many abandoned their former partnership models whereby the firm’s partners risked their own capital for the firm, in favor of raising capital by selling the public shares. That way, the upside—and the growing risk—would also be diffused and transferred to shareholders. Merrill Lynch was one of the first major investment bank partnerships to go “public” in 1971. Other classic industry leaders quickly followed suit.

Meanwhile, corporations were finding prevailing lower interest rates more attractive. Instead of getting loans from banks, they could fund themselves more cheaply by issuing bonds in the capital markets. This took business away from commercial banks, which were restricted by domestic regulation from acting as issuing agents. But bankers had positioned themselves on both sides of the Atlantic to get around this problem, so they were covered by the shift in their major customers’ financing preferences. While their ability to service corporate demand was dampened at home, overseas it roared. Currency market turmoil also led many countries to the Eurodollar market for credit, where US banks were waiting. Thus, the credit extended through international branches of major US banks tripled to $4.5 billion from 1969 to 1972.

The market rally, cheered on by the media, was enough to bolster Nixon’s fortunes. In the fall of 1972, Nixon was reelected in a landslide on promises to end the Vietnam War with “peace and honor.” Wall Street reaped the benefits of a bull market, and more citizens and companies were sucked into new debt products. The Dow hit a 1970s peak of 1,052 points in January 1973, as Nixon began his second term.

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Inflation Is Coming

by Sprout Money

inflation

People following the markets are a bit uncomfortable at the moment. Especially the abrupt drop in the technology sector is turning stomachs left and right. Volatility has returned it seems, and there is no denying that the way down travels faster than the way up.

Another trend we spotted was that a lot of capital is flowing out of technology into big caps, and at Sprout Money we always try to look at the big picture.

  • Why is this happening in the market?
  • Did something fundamentally change?
  • Is something going on in the background?

We do assume that we are in a transitional phase at the moment and as you probably know already, every market transition is accompanied by strong waves. What is going on then? Well, there is evidence that inflation is coming back, and we already had a taste of it with the jump in the gold price over the course of the first quarter of 2014. Most market watchers believe that gold was on the rise because of geo-political tension, but that is never the most important driver for gold.

Ultimately, inflation powers gold and nothing else!

With a little bit of investigation and research, it would be hard to not conclude that the inflation rate is going to be on the rise over the coming months. It does not require a science degree to figure out how the subparts of the official measure of inflation (the Consumer Price Index) are behaving as well.

The composition of the CPI (consumer price index) is as follows:

CPI components pie-chart

Source: Doug Short

In this diagram you can see clearly that the most important components are Housing, Transportation and Food & Beverages; together responsible for about 73 percent of the inflation rate! Of those three parts, only Transportation has not increased year-on-year. Food & Beverages, however, has gone up by a lot…

CPI food beverages chart

That should not come as a surprise to anyone. The prices of grain, coffee, meat, etc. have gone through the roof over the first quarter of 2014.

And then there is Housing. Although that component encompasses different things, the most important are real estate prices and rent. You have probably heard that the US real estate market is making a comeback, but rents are on the rise as well.

CPI rent chart

Do you see any sign of weakness in the above chart? We most certainly do not.

Even components in which you could notice a constant price decrease over the last few months, like information technology, are reversing.

CPI technology chart

You can see already where this is going: those who want to know where inflation is headed in the coming months simply need to look at its most important components. And most of these components are indicating an increase in the inflation rate. Gold has a head start already, as it is the ultimate monetary watchdog that can smell an increase in the inflation rate from miles away!

Now, if you listened carefully to the Fed over the last couple of months, you would have noticed inflation taking up a more prominent position in monetary policy as well. At the moment the inflation target is 2 percent, but Janet Yellen already indicated on multiple occasions that she would tolerate a higher inflation rate for an extended period of time to get the US growth engine roaring again. If we know one thing it is the following: NEVER fight the Fed!

If the Fed wants inflation, the Fed will get inflation. Mark our words.

Regular readers will remember that we indicated last year that tapering would be the Fed’s crutch for raising inflation. It was (and is) a controversial thought that was not received well by everyone, but it is the scenario that is playing out in front of our very eyes today.

The Fed is slowly turning off the printing press, and what do we see? Price increases over the whole spectrum.

The balance sheets of banks have been growing with freshly printed money from the Fed for years now, and 4 billion dollars have been injected already. That money will only start to work if the Fed stops bottle-feeding the banks. And then, all of that money will get shoved into the financial system by a factor of 10X (and more)! Do not forget that we still live in times of fractional banking.

We are very clear about this: a monetary avalanche awaits. Never before has a monetary operation of this scale been done as on other continents there are also billions of euros, yens, pounds, etc. ready to go to work. Fear (with baited breath) the moment this monetary snowball is unleashed.

Yellen wants inflation? Yellen will get inflation, and a lot of it, no doubts here. That is why we cannot emphasize the importance of gold as a component in your portfolio enough. Gold is the ultimate hedge against inflationary forces that are embedded in the system. Why? Simple. Gold flourishes in an environment of negative real interest rates, because only then financial products with fixed income (like bonds) do not generate any profits or protect capital. In a situation like that, money takes the path of least resistance: gold!

To get to negative real interest rates, you need the inflation rate to be higher than the nominal interest rate, and the current low interest rate policy from the Fed will remain unchanged for a good while. Only when inflation becomes a persistent problem, the Fed will fight back with interest rate policies but that will not be a topic for a long time… The CPI has to go north of 5 percent to get the Fed to hit the emergency brakes and today, the CPI is at a mere 1 percent.

USA inflation rate chart

We are also completely convinced that the Fed has no issues with a higher gold price whatsoever. Even more, the Fed would love a higher gold price as it would be a confirmation of the effectiveness of their monetary policy!

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As The Hedge Fund Slaughter Continues, Here Is Who Is Unwinding And What Stocks To Watch

by Tyler Durden

Last week we reported that in the aftermath of the vicious high-flying momo, high-beta mauling, hedge funds had their worst week since 2001 (excluding such "end of the world" days as Lehman and the 2011 debt ceiling fiasco). Specifically, we said that the crush was nowhere worse than in the "hedge fund hotel" basket of names most near and dear to the hearts of hedge funds, and respectively those most hated, one which Goldman defines as the long Very Important Positions <GSTHHVIP> vs. short Very Important Shorts <GSTHVISP>. This is how the chart showing the weekly hedge fund P&L of this most popular pair trade looked like.

We ruminated on the benefits of hedge funds which no longer "hedge" and try to reach for alpha, but are merely levered beta-pursuing vehicles: "when after five years of underperforming the market, investors continue to ask themselves just what are they paying hedges 2 and 20 for - obviously it is not to hedge risk, in a market in which the Fed has made it all too clear a market downturn is no longer a possibility. It must be for the "benefits" of the herd effect of everyone loading up on the same positions, and when one sells, everyone sells and leading to sharp losses for the bulk of the "smart money out there."

Well, as expected, the next week - the one that just passed - what was certain to be a reflexive, margin call-driven continuation of the selloff as levered positions continued unwinding, indeed happened.

Goldman's David Kostin reports:

"The recent momentum reversal has focused on high growth stocks, many of which are constituents in our hedge fund basket"..."high expected sales growth and firms with high EV/sales multiples. Our 50-stock sector-neutral portfolio of firms with the highest expected sales growth surged 3.4% during the first 60 days of 2014 (250 bp above S&P 500), before retreating by 2.4% during March and trailing S&P 500 by 320 bp (Bloomberg: <GSTHREVG>). Stocks on both lists were social media, internet, and biotechnology firms that had led the market during the prior six months. These high growth/high multiple stocks feature prominently on our list of “stocks that matter most” to hedge fund performance (<GSTHHVIP>). Having outperformed by 230 bp through February, our VIP basket dropped 2% in March while S&P 500 climbed 0.8%. Long positions trail by 98 bp YTD."

Or, said much more simply, a furious unwind of levered positions for the second week in a row.

So furious that some of the marquee hedge fund names are already getting slammed for the year in what everyone said would be a guaranteed way to make a killing in 2014. From the WSJ:

Andor Capital Management LLC, once one of the world's biggest technology-focused hedge funds, plunged 18% last month. The $15 billion Discovery Capital Management LLC lost 9.3% in its flagship fund.... Both funds are in the red for 2014, according to people familiar with the firms.

Many of the biggest hedge-fund falls stemmed from wagers on highflying technology stocks that shot up last year and in the first two months of 2014. The last week of March was one of the worst weeks for stock hedge-funds' returns compared with the S&P 500 since 2001, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which tracks the stocks important to hedge funds.

Andor, based in Rye Brook, N.Y., saw its fortunes reverse after sticking to a strategy that drove the firm to a 35% gain in 2013. Some of the firm's biggest long-term positions, including Facebook and Google Inc., fell steeply last month.

Founded by former Pequot Capital Management co-head Daniel Benton, Andor manages about $1 billion. Mr. Benton previously managed more than $6 billion in an earlier incarnation of the firm.Andor was down 5% in the first quarter overall, according to a person familiar with the firm.

The $9 billion Coatue Management LLC, started by Philippe Laffont, a veteran of Julian Robertson's Tiger Management, also was hurt by the reversal in technology stocks. Coatue's flagship fund lost 8.7% in March and is down 7.4% for the year. A spokesman declined to comment.

Another Tiger alumnus, Robert Citrone of Discovery, described the month's carnage as a "perfect storm." Wagers involving stocks accounted for 85% of the firm's March losses, the people said.

Curious which hedge fund is unwinding (the first of many)? Here is the answer:

Discovery was founded in 1999 by Mr. Citrone, a part-owner of the Pittsburgh Steelers football team.

On an investor call Thursday, Mr. Citrone said Discovery had reduced the amount of risk it was taking and that he remained confident that U.S. growth was accelerating.

Last time Discovery caught a lucky break:

Several investors said they were concerned by the magnitude of Discovery's March loss but added that they expect volatility from the firm, which has returned an average annualized 17% since inception. Discovery has rebounded from similar-size losses before. In about a month last year, from mid-May through late June, Discovery's $8.5 billion flagship fund lost 9%, in part because of a decline on Japanese stocks. But the fund more than made up the loss by the end of the year, returning 27% for 2013.

This time it may not be so lucky.

Ironically, we were right once again because as Goldman further adds:  "Short holdings created problems by rising 130 bp more than S&P 500 YTD."

Gee, where have we seen this before, not to mention predicted this would happen? Why here: "Presenting The Best Trading Strategy Over The Past Year: Why Buying The Most Hated Names Continues To Generate "Alpha"

Thank you Chairman Bernanke and Chairmanwoman Yellen, not to mention HFT vacuum tubes, for making the market so broken, a tinfoil blog can outperform the smartest money in the street.

Finally, for those curious where the pain will continue to be focused as the HF levered unwind accelerates, here are the most held long hedge fund positions where the slaughter will be the most painful in the coming days.

And here are the most hated ones. Needless to say, these should continue to generate what little "alpha" is left in this pathetic, rigged, broken market.

See the original article >>

Is Inflation Next?

by James Gruber

Hints from Q1
A normal market cycle?
A system unhinged
An investment framework

Inflation is dead. At least that’s the view of the vast majority of economists, investors, policymakers and financial commentators. The view has been given further currency in recent months via various speeches from IMF director, Christine Lagarde. She’s urged policymakers to fight deflation as it’s the major threat facing developed economies in 2014. The latest consumer price inflation (CPI) statistics, whether it be in the US, Europe or China, seem to support her view.

There are signs though that inflation shouldn’t be written off altogether. The price action of agricultural commodities and gold is suggesting as much. Oil hasn’t yet followed suit but should be closely watched. There’s also evidence of a tightening labor market in the US, which normally precedes wage increases and higher inflation. Admittedly, these are tentative signals rather than definitive evidence (which usually only comes after the fact).

But some of these things are indicative of mid-economic cycle behaviour – at least in the US. In this part of the cycle, there’s eventually a tug-of-war between rising interest rates and improving fundamentals. And later in the cycle, the economy usually gathers steam and inflation follows, with the central bank being late in raising rates to quell the inflation.

The US has largely followed the patterns of a typical economic cycle thus far. But Asia Confidential still suspects this isn’t just a typical cycle. The current economic system – where central banks can print money without constraints – is inherently inflationary. Until the system is reformed where limits are imposed, there are likely to be even greater swings in economic cycles and stock market prices.

What does this mean for inflation in the near-term though? Your author has previously suggested that deflation would precede inflation and this has proven correct. Our view now is that investors should probably be leaning the other way, preparing for inflation to take hold by the first half of next year. Keeping in mind that whether this proves right or not, today’s monetary regime almost guarantees inflation in the long run, as well even more extreme economic booms and busts.

Hints from Q1
The first quarter of the year is over and it’s time to take stock. Let’s have a look at the returns of various asset classes.

Cross asset returns 1Q14

As you can see, there’s the odd mix of strong performance from both bonds and commodities. This shouldn’t surprise regular readers of mine. This newsletter has been an advocate of agricultural commodities on both short and long-term time frames. This based on still tight supply-demand fundamentals and the favourable weather of last year providing only a temporary pullback in prices.

I’ve also suggested that bonds, particularly US treasuries, were due for a bounce back too. Admittedly, this was an early call made mid-last year. Too early as it turned out. And though the good performance may continue in the near-term, the pathetic yields on offer should make for poor returns in the long-term.

As for gold, your author has consistently recommended it as a hedge against currency debasement. I suggested junior gold stocks might prove the contrarian trade of 2014, given extraordinarily depressed sentiment and valuations. In the first quarter, these stocks were up 17% (via the ETF, GDXJ).

Among the big losers were Asian markets, including Japan and China. A Japan correction shouldn’t surprise given the enormous run that the market had last year. Note though that Japan has started the second quarter in style. Further out-performance, at least this year, will depend on more mass injections of printed yen.

As for China, that market has been among the worst performers for several years. It’s staggering how investors and commentators swallowed China’s strong economic figures from 2009 onward when the stock market was telling them all along that the economy was fast deteriorating.

The question is: what’s in store for the rest of the year? And the answer to that will partly depend on what happens to interest rates and inflation in the world’s largest economy, the US.

A normal market cycle?
Either consciously or unconsciously, most investors avoid reading people who have different views from their own. It’s a common investor bias called confirmation bias. And it usually makes for poor investment decisions. After all, testing your own arguments against those of others should be an essential part of any decision making process.

In this spirit, Asia Confidential always enjoys reading two prominent North American economists, Richard Bernstein and David Rosenberg. The former used to be Merrill Lynch’s chief investment strategist and now runs his own consultancy. The latter used to be Merrill Lynch’s chief North American economist before moving to a Canadian brokerage.

Your author finds some of their latest arguments particularly persuasive, if not being wholeheartedly in agreement with them. Let’s examine the persuasive bits initially.

Bernstein is known as a US economic and stock market bull. To his credit, he’s been largely right since 2009. To understand his bullish stance, there’s some context to get first.

Bernstein believes the US is undergoing a typical market cycle. These cycles follow a pattern cycle after cycle. And this one is no different, despite the common belief that it is.

The early part of the cycle is when monetary and fiscal policies focus on stimulating the economy. It’s normally associated with depressed stock market valuations. As well as improving economic fundamentals. During the early part of the cycle, financials and consumer cyclicals typically outperform as they’re most sensitive to lower rates and credit creation (and this has proven right since 2009).

The middle portion of the cycle involves a tug-of-war between rising interest rates and improving economic fundamentals. Stimulus is normally eased though investors become anxious about whether the economy can continue to grow without it.

During this mid-cycle, inventories built up during the prior crisis are run down and businesses start to invest. This usually results in outperformance from sectors such as industrials and technology.

Note that Bernstein believes the US is now entering this mid-cycle.

The latter segment of the cycle is characterised by a stronger economy and increased corporate profits. Inflation picks up and the Fed is invariably late in acting to increase rates, usually signaled by an inverted yield curve (where short-term bond yields are higher than long-term bond yields). Late cycle sector out-performers are typically energy and materials.

Bernstein thinks we’re a long way from the latter stages of this market cycle and US equities should continue to perform well under these circumstances.

David Rosenberg appears to be thinking on similar lines. Rosenberg is famous for his recessionary warnings prior to the 2008 financial crisis and many were surprised when he turned from US economic bear to bull last year.

Rosenberg believes that we should now be preparing for a stronger US economy and rising US inflation over the next 12 months. He says the fiscal headwinds of last year will subside and provide tailwinds this year. The jobs market is improving and ex-finance sector, employment should hit an all-time high in coming months. Consumers are done deleveraging and are now in a position to start re-leveraging. And business spend should improve as the nation’s capital stock is old and needs replacing.

Rosenberg suggests that we’re in the early stages of bargaining power moving from employers to employees. He sees a tightening labor market, with the recent pick up in hourly earnings as evidence of this.

He also believes prices of rent, food, energy and health care services are all heading higher. Combined with increased wages, this should lead to sustained inflationary pressure in coming quarters.

Rosenberg says the next decade will look more like the 1970s than most people think. Though structural and demographic factors will limit how high inflation can go. He believes inflation could revisit the highs of the previous economic cycle, at close to 5% for CPI.

Like Bernstein, Rosenberg thinks the Fed will be late raising rates to quell the inflation, and an economic downturn may then follow. But that’s some time away.

Rosenberg differs from Bernstein in believing US stock gains will be more muted after the large run-up in recent years. Needless to say, he’s bearish on US long bonds given his views on inflation.

A system unhinged
The two economists provide a convincing case why this US economic cycle will follow previous cycles. Though I’m not entirely convinced they’ll turn out to be right. There’s every chance that this cycle may be even more extreme than those of recent times. Here’s why.

If you look at the history of the US Federal Reserve since it was created a hundred years ago, it’s been one of sustained inflation and heightened asset price volatility. Volatility has undoubtedly increased during that time.

The reason for this can be traced back to the paper money system. Before 1914, central banks couldn’t print money without additional metallic reserves, principally gold (though also silver in ancient times). 

With the advent of the Fed, the link with gold was gradually wound back. And in 1971, that link was broken altogether when the US floated the dollar. Since then, the Fed has been able to print money, without constraints.

This has suited the politicians just fine. With an eye always on the next election, any economic downturn has been met with substantial money printing to cushion the blow to their electorates. It’s been a seemingly easy answer to the problems of the day.

However, inflation and increased economic instability have resulted. It’s created the illusion of prosperity even when that prosperity may rest on increasingly shaky grounds.

If we turn to the 2008 financial crisis, the worst economic downturn in the US since the 1930s was met with unprecedented money printing. Not only from the Fed but central banks worldwide.

Thus, how much of the US economic recovery since is artificial is impossible to tell. But we’re about to find out, given the Fed’s planned tapering program.

There’s a chance that the US economy won’t be able to handle higher inflation and higher rates. There was a glimpse of this when 10-year bond yields recently hit 3% – the US housing market almost instantly stalled.

Importantly, the massive stimulus programs conducted globally have made the economies of countries outside the US more unstable. Look at Asia, where stimulus has fueled domestic credit bubbles which are starting to unravel.

The current economic system is prone to inflation and instability. Until there are limits imposed on the money printing capacities of central banks, the situation may worsen.

In other words, if Bernstein and Rosenberg are correct about this being a typical US economic cycle, inflation is on the way. And if they’re incorrect, the broader system will almost guarantee serious inflation down the track anyway.

Whichever way that you cut it, preparing for inflation ahead would seem sensible. The question is whether we get a deflationary bust before seeing further central bank intervention then leading to inflation. I’ve been a previous proponent for such a bust, though now see that as a less probable outcome.

In my view, the largest deflationary risk for the world isn’t China but Japan. Despite being heavily shorted, the Japanese yen continues to weaken and Shinzo Abe needs it to fall a lot further if he has any hope of hitting his inflation targets. The risks from Japan exporting deflation, via a much weakened currency, shouldn’t be underestimated.

An investment framework
Given the economic scenarios outlined above and the range of potential outcomes, it makes sense to have a diversified investment portfolio. This is a bit cliched so let’s get more specific.

Stocks perform well during rising inflation, until the inflation rate hits a certain point. In the US, that point is 4%.Therefore, stocks should be part of portfolios at this juncture (that may change later on).

The US stock market has run hard and valuations aren’t cheap. Other markets look better. On a 12 month view, I like Japan. Though highly skeptical of Japan’s stimulus program, it’ll likely benefit the local stock market. Hedge any yen exposure, however, as the currency could be heading much lower.

Other Asian markets are also worth owning. For instance, South Korea appears very cheap, at 1x price-to-book, with some world class companies on offer.

Parts of Europe look prospective too. The likes of Italy and Ireland appear both misunderstood and mispriced, particularly the banking sectors.

As for bonds, short-term bonds are safest as they aren’t susceptible to higher interest rates. Long-term bonds in most countries are risky if inflation picks up. The problem is that even if inflation and rates remain low, many long-term bonds offer such pathetic yields that returns are guaranteed to be paltry.

Cash is probably the world’s most hated asset class. People holding cash have lost out big since the crisis. The potential for higher inflation risks even greater relative losses. But I think it’s still worth holding some cash in case that doesn’t happen.

Commodities are an interesting one. They arguably benefit from inflation. My preferences are agriculture, silver, gold, oil – in that order. Industrial commodities should be avoided as their super cycle, turbocharged by Chinese over-consumption, is over.

Other assets which will benefit from inflation should also be considered. In many countries, commercial real estate remains reasonably priced. Official and industrial are be preferred over retail property, given the structural issues facing the latter (with the Internet taking retail market share).

AC Speed Read

-  Market consensus suggests deflation remains the greatest threat to the global economy.

- There are signs though that inflation may be on the way in the US at least, as the labor market there tightens and commodities gather steam.

- There’s an informed view that the US economic cycle is following a typical pattern, which points to soon rising interest rates and inflation.

- We’re not convinced this is a typical economic cycle but think the broader monetary regime remains inherently inflationary and economically unstable.

- Whichever way you cut it, it would seem sensible to prepare for inflation ahead.

That’s a wrap for this week,

See the original article >>

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