General Comments: Futures closed a little higher as weather stays dry in Brazil and as crops remain short in the United States. Florida fruit sizes have been small and the Greening Disease takes more and more of a toll on crops. The weather is still good in Florida and the chances to freeze trees is less as the sun gets higher in the sky and daylight hours increase. The Greening Disease is working hard to keep overall production down. The disease will affect production for several more years. Brazil has seen weather might that be stressing trees as reports indicate that many áreas still need rain. Mostly dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil. More rain would be beneficial in Florida, but harvest conditions remain good. Harvest is starting to come to a close for early and mid Oranges. The Valencia harvest is expanding as the early harvest winds down. Blooms are being reported in South Florida.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions today, showers on Wednesday, then dry weather again. Temperatures will average near to below normal this week and near to above normal this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 152.00, 150.00, and 148.00 May, with resistance at 157.00, 159.00, and 162.00 May.
COFFEE (NYBOT:KCK14)
General Comments: Futures closed higher again as Brazil stays mostly dry. Mostly dry weather is in the forecast through the weekend. Reports of increased offers from other Arabica producers above $2.00 per pound was seen, but tight markets overall kept futures from closing lower. London found more support on potential drought conditions in Vietnam and the possibility of production losses for the next crop. The lack of rain in Coffee producing áreas of Brazil over the last month has hurt Coffee production potential as the crop was forming cherries. Exports so far this year from Vietnam have been less than last year and might stay weak if the weather does not improve there. The market needs that Coffee to be exported to help fill the vacuum left by the poor production in Brazil. Trends are up in all three markets.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.593 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 176.37 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry weather, although some showers are expected in Eastern Mexico. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 223.00 and 245.00 May. Support is at 201.00, 193.00, and 184.00 May, and resistance is at 210.00, 213.00 and 216.00 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2210, 2260, and 2310 May. Support is at 2135, 2100, and 2035 May, and resistance is at 2195, 2220, and 2250 May. Trends in Sao Paulo are up with no objectives. Support is at 240.00, 234.00, and 229.00 May, and resistance is at 246.00, 252.00, and 258.00 May.
SUGAR (NYBOT:SBK14)
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and much lower in London. Futures remain in a trading range and traders are looking for news. Only light precipitation is likely this week in Brazil to support the Bulls, but there should still be Sugar aropund. Little offer was reported from Brazil, but Thailand has been selling Sugar at stable differentials. Demand news remains hard to find. Weather has improved in Sugar áreas of Brazil, but overall the región remains too dry. Rains now could help the crop recoup some of the losses but regular rains will be needed soon. Charts show that the overall tone is mixed as the market is in a consolidation phase. Weather conditions in key production áreas around the world are rated as mostly good except for the dry weather in Brazil.
Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and near to above normal tempertures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1780, 1745, and 1705 May, and resistance is at 1845, 1865, and 1890 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 470.00, 467.00, and 464.00 May, and resistance is at 479.00, 485.00, and 490.00 May.
COCOA (NYBOT:CCK14)
General Comments: Futures closed higher and made new highs for the move on production concerns. Some bug infestations have b een reported in Camaroon that could cut production of the mid crop by 10%, and some are talking about the dry weather in Brazil, although the crop is at harvest there so that the dry weather could be beneficial. Mid crop conditions seem fair to good in the rest of West Africa and generally good in Southeast Asia. Butter ratios remain strong on ideas of short supplies of Cocoa Butter in Europe and North America. Demand is strong as the Easter holiday is coming soon. Asian demand has been strong and Indonesia is importing beans for processing. A very good midcrop production is possible from Africa, but producers say more rain is needed, especially in central and northern areas. Some showers are reported in southern áreas that will help.
Overnight News: Mostly dry expected in West Africa, but a few showers are expected in southern áreas. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.382 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3095, 3115, and 3235 May. Support is at 2975, 2950, and 2900 May, with resistance at 3020, 3050, and 3080 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1935 and 2005 May. Support is at 1870, 1855, and 1825 May, with resistance at 1900, 1930, and 1960 May.
COTTON (NYBOT:CTK14)
General Comments: Futures were mixed, with nearby months a little lower and deferred months a little higher. Ideas that the US was pricing itself out of the market hurt nearby price action. There was Little in the way of news yesterday for traders, and the USDA reports had been largely anticipated by the trade. USDA projects tight ending stocks at the end of the current marketing year, and the domestic cash market has been strong due to very limited offers against the good demand. However, many think that demand can start to fade now with the high prices and buying interest is less at this time in futures. Brazil conditions are reported to be good in Bahia with warm temperatures, but the state needs rain and should get more this week. Warmer temperaturas are slowly returning to production áreas in the US and there has been some initial fiel;dwork done in far southern áreas.
Overnight News: Delta and Southeast áreas will get dry weather this week and showers this weekend. Temperatures will average near to below normal this week and near to above normal this weekend. Texas will see dry weather. Temperatures will average near to below normal this week and near to above normal this weekend. The USDA spot price is 86.68 ct/lb. today. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.260 million bales, from 0.259 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 90.70, 90.40, and 89.60 May, with resistance of 92.20, 92.80, and 93.40 May.
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