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Thursday, April 21, 2011

The Truly Remarkable Run of Silver

by Bespoke Investment Group

As gold continues to receive all the headlines, silver continues to look at the yellow metal in the rearview mirror. 

Below we highlight a few charts and tables that show just how remarkable the run for silver has been. Had you invested $100 in silver ten years ago today, your investment would now be worth $1,037. A $100 investment in gold would be worth about half that at $569, and a $100 investment in the stock market (S&P 500) would be worth -- wait for it -- $107.48.

The two main silver ETFs (SLV and DBS) have gone absolutely parabolic over the past few weeks. Both are currently trading more than two standard deviations above their 50-day moving averages, and just when they seem about as overbought as they can possibly get, they get even more overbought.

We track nearly 200 ETFs in our daily ETF Trends report over at Bespoke Premium that cover every asset class out there. Below is a list of the ETFs across all asset classes that are currently trading the farthest above their 50-day moving averages. As shown, SLV is currently 26.24% above its 50-day, and the second most overbought ETF -- EWY -- is not even in the same time zone as SLV.

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Etichette: articles, commodity, commodity article, metals, silver

China stockpiling to cut risk of cotton price fall

by Agrimoney.com

Investors may have overdone their gloom at prospects for cotton prices, which may prove more resilient than had been feared thanks to stockpiling by China, the top consumer of the fibre.
Standard Chartered restated a forecast that New York cotton futures will maintain a downward path, averaging 166 cents a pound for the year compared with a price on Thursday of 185 cents a pound for the near-term May contract.
New York cotton hit a record 227 cents a pound last month, up 175% year on year, supported by a fall in stocks in the US, the top exporter, to a record low in 2010-11.
"We look for prices to trend down as global supply improves, particularly in China but also Pakistan," the bank said.
'Limited risks'
However, investors may be factoring in too gloomy an estimate for prices in the fourth quarter of 2011, which will average 140 cents a pound, some 10 cents above the current level that New York's December lot is trading at.
Although supplies will be improved by increased sowings in many major producing countries, including the US, prices will gain support from a seven-month Chinese programme of cotton stockpiling set to start in September.
The scheme will activate state purchases of cotton at 19,800, equivalent to about 140 cents a pound, yuan a tonne whenever Chinese futures prices fall below that level for five working days.
"Downside risks [to cotton prices] will be limited by the price stabilisation policy in China," Standard Chartered said.
Furthermore, the bank said it expected cotton supplies to stay "tight" in 2011-12 despite the rise in sowings, although this squeeze "will not be fully apparent until later in the season when new crop stocks are drawn down".
'Too dry'
Indeed, China, which is also the top cotton consumer and producer, has designed its stockpiling programme to encourage domestic sowings, over which there have been doubts given the attractive returns to be gained from growing grains, and the losses growers ran up in 2008 ramping up in the fibre.
In the US too, the official forecast for spring sowings of the fibre, at 12.6m acres, is short of initial expectations, a shortfall blamed on a reluctance by farmers to splash out on specialist cotton equipment to exploit a price rally which may not last for long.
And much of the land in America's southern cotton heartland that has been allocated to the crop is not being sown amid a drought in many areas. Farmers in Texas, the top growing state, had sown 12% of their cotton as of Sunday, down from a long-term average of 16% by now.
"Conditions remain too dry for planting in non-irrigated areas," Terry Roggensack at Hightower Report said.
Chart signal
Mr Roggensack added that, technically, for New York's old crop cotton contracts "the path of least resistance is still down", with levels of open interest "on a slight decline" and speculators holding a large net long position.
The July contract, which stood 0.01 cents lower at 167.05 cents at 14:10 GMT, had "147.88 cents a pound as a longer-term downside target", to judge by signals from a so-called head-and-shoulders chart pattern.

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Etichette: articles, commodity, commodity article, cotton, market articles, Softs

Unemployment Claims

by Bespoke Investment Group

Today's initial jobless claims report was higher than expected and marked the second straight week that first time claims topped 400K. Even with the rise, however, jobless claims remain in a well-defined downtrend.

One often overlooked aspect of the weekly unemployment insurance (UI) claims report is the number of total unemployment claims. This indicator includes first time, continuing, and all other state and federal emergency UI claims. Like initial claims, this indicator has also been on the decline over the last 12 months. From the peak reading in January 2010, total UI claims have declined by 29%. However, putting this decline in perspective shows that total UI claims have a lot further to go before getting back anywhere to what were once considered normal levels. At a current level if 8.5 million, total UI claims are still more than 150% above the average weekly level from 2001 through 2007 (3.3 million).



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What Does $1,500 Gold Really Mean?

By: The_Gold_Report

When the price of Comex gold futures kissed a record high $1,500/oz. Tuesday before settling back to the high $1,400s at day's end, and then topped the benchmark in early trading Wednesday, the smack sounded a lot like "I told you so." The Gold Report's expert contributors explain what this milestone means for investors going forward.

On Kitco News, analysts were predicting that the markets would take a breather for profit-taking and evaluation before moving to whatever came next. Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at MKS Finance, was quoted describing a scenario in which profit-taking was contributing to range trading between $1,485 and $1,500/oz. before moving up again. "In every corner of the world, there is something going wrong geopolitically or economically," Nabavi was quoted as saying. "So obviously, the safe-haven buying continues in gold and silver."

Jay Taylor, publisher of Gold, Energy & Technology Stocks and host of the "Turning Hard Times into Good Times" radio program, said 1,500 is just a number and not really a meaningful one because the measuring stick is the dollar, which isn't a stable unit of measure because trillions of them are being created out of nothing by government entities all the time. "It is less about an increase in the value of gold, than a devaluation of the dollar," he said. Based on the games being played with currency in the U.S. and all over the world, he predicted that number will probably continue to climb. "The next big one will be $2,000/oz."

The exact price of gold in dollars may not be as meaningful a number, according to Taylor, as how much an ounce of gold will buy. Based on that number, the nominal price of gold could even go down, but the relative absolute purchase price could continue to rise. "The real price of gold will remain high for a long time to come," he said.

For that reason, Taylor is bullish on gold mining shares. He pointed to surging profit margins of aggregate gold mining shares as proof that gold is a sound investment today and for years to come. "This is the buying opportunity of a lifetime in gold mining shares," he said.

Not everyone is listening, however. Stewart Thomson, a retired Merrill Lynch broker and author of Graceland Updates, wrote on 321Energy Tuesday that while gold has risen from $1,300/oz.–$1,500/oz., the public has actually become less interested in gold and gold stocks because "this is a crisis and greed will play a diminishing role, while fear plays an exponentially increasing role."

The declining dollar in the wake of a Standard & Poor's rating agency outlook downgrade and increasing oil prices signaling possible inflationary pressures was also good news for silver, which hit a 31-year high of $44/oz. on Tuesday. Taylor called it "the poor man's gold" and said it could also hit historic highs as investors flee an unstable paper market.

James West, publisher of The Midas Letter, agreed that the worldwide counterfeiting of money is driving the demand for gold and, in his view to an ever greater degree, silver. "In terms of pure performance, whereas gold has delivered a solid gain of 26.51% in the course of the last year, silver has outshone gold spectacularly, turning in a gain of 123.55%, making it the commodity trade of the year by far." He ventured to say that $5,000/oz. gold and $300/oz. silver could be a reality in the not too distant future.

Roger "Trader Rog" Wiegand, editor of Trader Tracks, had predicted a cyclical high for gold of $1,507/oz. and a yearly high of $1,607/oz. His silver crystal ball shows the metal rising to $45.25/oz., then as high as $51/oz. before people get scared and start getting out, leaving the wise investors to pick up and take it as high as $55.85 this year. "It's all about cycles and time; it's just math," Wiegand said. Still, he didn't think prices would reach these milestones this early in the year. He follows seven indicators and says geopolitical unrest is only one of the factors pushing prices.

An emerging trend over the last year, which he predicts will be even more prevalent by fall, is the breaking away of gold and silver shares from the rest of the stock market. "People want to be in gold and silver and they will stop paying attention to the regular markets," Wiegand said. His revised forever high number pegs gold at $4,400/oz. and silver at $256/oz. Others have predicted even higher highs. Analyst Alf Field has suggested $10,000/oz. and Economist Martin Armstrong has publicly said $12,000/oz.

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The U.S. Dollar’s Destruction Apparently Saves the Markets

By: PhilStockWorld

Wheeeee, what a day already!
The Dollar is down from 76 yesterday to 74.5 this morning, a stunning 2% drop for a currency in a country that didn't have an earthquake or a revolution overnight. 75.63 was our low of last November (a one-day spike and we were back at 81 by the end of the month as the market fell apart) and before that we only touched 74.23 briefly in November of 2009 (it's a bad month for the Dollar) and we flew up from there to 78 in December and 80 in January. 

I already sent out a morning alert to Members pointing out more ways in which the dollar bears circled the wagons yesterday after US currency made a rare showing of strength on Monday, which promptly collapsed the markets. The BOE voted to hold rates steady this morning yet the Pound STILL rose from $1.616 yesterday to $1.637 this morning (up 1.3%) against our currency - which had no decisions and no official announcements of any kind.

Does that sound A) Irrational B) Insane or C) Like Wednesday? As David Fry notes: "Monday’s S&P debt downgrade shocker is quickly old news and steamrolled by freshly minted cash (POMO) with ideas of more to come. Keeping money printing presses on high was a green light to sell the dollar which always causes commodities to rise. Why is that a good thing The Fed is also rumored to be selling puts on Treasury bonds to keep rates low combined with maintaining the bogus inflationary “core rate” to keep you mesmerized. It’s some Orwellian-speak to keep the masses happy even though they see the disconnect at the pump and check-out counter." 


That disconnect this morning sent gold over $1,500 per ounce and oil touched $110 a barrel where, of course, we are shorting it (very tight stops). Unfortunately, the hawks may shriek louder, but the doves have the power at the fed and investors tend to overestimate the influence of the hawkish side of the Fed, according to former Fed economist Roberto Perli, who explains why Fed Funds futures consistently predict more and earlier tightening than actually occurs.

Economists at the ECB are now predicting "A Century of Inflation," driven by loose US Monetary policy and rampant Dollar-printing - a genie that already cannot be put back in the bottle as the money is already out there - it's just a question of having a spark that re-ignites the velocity of that money and sends us into an inflationary spiral. 

We took note of one of the major signs we are looking for in Member Chat yesterday, which is the beginning of wage inflation as Poland's Solidarity Union is planning a series of strikes to push for wage hikes in the case of quickening inflation. This or something like this, could be the "shot heard round the World" as workers of the World begin to unite and demand to at least be paid enough money to be able to drive to work and, perhaps (dare we dream?), have enough money left to buy lunch. 

You watch the above video and think it couldn't happen here but it doesn't have to happen here - it can happen in Poland or it can happen in Greece or Portugal or Italy or --- well who are we kidding - it is happening here. Gold was $750 an ounce in late 2008, now it's $1,500 an ounce and we're talking about QE3. Germany's debt to GDP ratio when their country went into crisis in 1920 was 72%, about the same as the US's current debt load and miles less than Japan, the World's #3 economy, which has a 200% debt to GDP ratio.

Inflation does spread too - in 1920, England had 16% inflation and France had 20% in the early stages of Germany's inflation as they printed money and exported inflation to the rest of the World (sound familiar?). Keep in mind that, unlike the US - Germany had STOPPED fighting the war it couldn't afford.

Unlike France, which had imposed a special income tax to pay for WWI, Germany had suspended the gold standard (Nixon did that to pay for Vietnam) and funded their war entirely by borrowing money. Because the Western theatre of World War I was mostly in France and Belgium, Germany had come out of the war with most of its industrial power intact, a healthy economy, and arguably in a better position to once again become a dominant force in the European continent than its neighbors. Although reparations accounted for about one third of the German deficit from 1920 to 1923, the government found reparations a convenient scapegoat. Adolf Hitler rose to power criticizing the national debt and the consequences of Socialism, which he said was destroying the country. According to Wikipedia: "The inflation also raised doubts about the competence of Liberal Institutions, especially amongst a middle class who had held cash savings and bonds. It also produced resentment of bankers and speculators, whom the government and press blamed for the inflation."

Far be it for us to criticize bankers and speculators! Of course we're all against Socialism and those damned Liberal Institutions because that's the German American way! But, unlike Germany - WE know what we're doing when we print money! We also know how to speculate with the best of them and most of us at PSW already have our island getaways picked out and we'll be long gone before it all hits the fan. Our speculation this week was JAG yesterday morning and it's already congratulations to Members as our new favorite miner takes off like an undervalued rocket this morning!

TM should also be popping today so congrats to those put sellers but there is still time to go long on FTR off that $8 line. UNG was a good pick-up on Monday and we're still waiting for ADBE to pop but AAPL is already off to the races and our bullish put spread is looking good and, of course, our aggressive move on FAS should do well so a very nice day for the bulls as we do our level best to fight inflation (in our own accounts - everyone else is screwed). Having been so bullish on Monday (we shop when there's a sale!), we watched and waited yesterday other than my call for more CSCO and reiterating our bullish position in INTC.

I remind you of this to make sure you understand that, with the same logic, we will be looking for short opportunities today. We are neither bullish nor bearish - we are rangeish and we're going to be looking for nice shorting opportunities this morning as we have no reason to think the Dollar will really break down here and those 100% lines have proven very tough resistance to get over.

Yesterday we were in the middle of our range and it was time to get technical - today we are nearing the top of our range and it's time to concentrate on the fundamentals - if gold holds $1,500 and oil holds $110 and workers begin getting paid more to cover it - then we can begin looking for the next 10% gain in the markets but, right now - we are living in a weak-dollar fantasy and partying like it's Germany in early 1921 as the Gold Bug Speculators celebrate their wise investments as gold crosses 1,500 an ounce - unfortunately, the value of every other Mark-denominated asset was down 50% by the end of the year.

Let's be careful out there!

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Etichette: articles, Currencies, dollar index, Economy article, Finance article, market articles

The U.S. Dollar Cycle

By: Toby_Connor

For many months now I've been warning we were going to have a dollar crisis and that dollar crisis would drive the final leg up in gold's ongoing two year C-wave advance. We are now on the verge of the panic selling stage of this three year cycle.

On Monday the dollar briefly rallied on the S&P downgrade of US debt (who knew?). That had the potential to mark the bottom of the current dollar cycle. But by this morning the dollar has given back all of those gains and then some.

I've noted in the premium report that the dollar's daily cycle often turns on the employment report at the beginning of each month. The previous cycle bottomed one day after the March report and the current daily cycle topped on the April report. 


If this pattern continues then we can probably expect the current dollar cycle to stretch for another 2 1/2 weeks into the May report (give or take a day or two either way).

I seriously doubt gold is going to suffer any meaningful correction as long as the dollar is in free fall, so I expect we are going to see the gold cycle stretch also.

If the dollar does continue lower into the May employment report before putting in the cycle low it would then be set up for a more normal duration decline into the final three year cycle low due on or around the June report.



However with the dollar losing its chance to rally here gold and especially silver are now at risk of entering a runaway rally.

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Etichette: Analysis Technic, analysis technic article, articles, Currencies, dollar index, market articles

Morgan Stanley, MUFG JV to book $1.7 billion loss

By Taiga Uranaka and Emi Emoto

A Morgan Stanley (MS.N) securities joint venture in Japan with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) (8306.T) said it will lose nearly $2 billion after its fixed income traders took market positions which were larger than its "financial fitness" and then made wrong bets.
Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, 60 percent owned by Japan's MUFG and 40 percent by the Wall Street firm, said on Wednesday it would post a net loss of 145 billion yen ($1.7 billion) for the year ended March due to the trades.

It will also raise 30 billion yen through a capital injection from its parent Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Holdings.

The company said on Thursday it had been holding the trading positions which resulted in the loss at what was formerly Mitsubishi UFJ Securities, prior to its merger with Morgan Stanley.

Both banks had discussed these positions as part of its due diligence, and had agreed to keep it within a certain limit.

"But the losses kept growing bit by bit," Managing Director Fumio Yoshimatsu told reporters. "We did not have sufficiently detailed supervision of such things," he said.

He declined to give further details on what type of financial instruments were traded, but said they were incurred in January-March, and did not result from the March 11 magnitude 9.0 earthquake in northern Japan.

The company said the trades were made by Mitsubishi UFJ traders.

The unit is one of two securities ventures formed between MUFG and Morgan Stanley after Japan's largest lender acquired a 21 percent stake in the Wall Street firm for $9 billion in 2008.

It has been shedding staff since its start in May 2010, and said it will have lost 750 people by the end of this financial year.

Though the company did not say immediately whether heads will roll as a result of this loss, Yoshimatsu said any such decisions would be communicated when it reports earnings on April 28. It will however drastically cut back on proprietary trading in fixed income markets, executives said.

They also said that since its inception in May last year, the venture would have cut its headcount by 750 in the financial year started in April, including some who have already accepted early retirement. The venture had about 7,000 employees at the time of the start.

Yoshimatsu said the company will improve its risk management skills by "learning from Morgan Stanley."
Another venture, Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities (MSMS), is made up of Morgan Stanley's sales, trading and capital markets divisions.

MUFG has 60 percent of economic interest and Morgan Stanley has 40 percent in MSMS. ($1 = 82.465 Japanese Yen)

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Nokia's market share falls below 30 percent

by Associated Press

Nokia Corp. reported better than expected first quarter profits Thursday despite confirming that its market share around the world dropped below 30 percent for the first time in over a decade, as the world's top cellphone maker continued to lose ground to its rivals.

Though the Finnish company said its net profit for the quarter fell euro5 million to euro344 million ($499 million) a year earlier, the markets were impressed by the news that operating profit only fell 14 percent during the period instead of the anticipated 40 percent decline.

Nokia shares were up 3 percent at euro6.11 ($8.87) in afternoon trading in Helsinki.

Elsewhere in its statement, Nokia revealed that its revenues grew by 9 percent to euro10.40 billion from euro9.52 billion in the same period in 2010, while smartphone sales were up 6 percent at euro7 billion.

Despite the increase in smartphone sales, Nokia confirmed that its overall global market share plunged to 29 percent, from 33 percent a year earlier and 31 percent in the previous quarter.

CEO Stephen Elop said Nokia has now signed a "definitive" deal with Microsoft Corp. to develop software for smartphones "and that product design and engineering work was "well under way."

But he cautioned that the company faced "a more challenging second quarter."

Nokia said the tsunami and earthquake in Japan had disrupted the supply of some components linked to Japanese suppliers and would impact its results in the second quarter.

Nokia is the world's top cellphone maker but faces stiff competition in top-end smartphones from Apple Inc.'s iPhone, Android-based handsets and Research in Motion's Blackberry.

However, Nokia said it sold 24 million smartphones, 13 percent more than in 2010.

Total handset sales were only slightly up at 108.5 million, Nokia said.

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Why Gold Stocks are Struggling Despite Record Gold Price

By Jordan Roy-Byrne

Gold looks fantastic. It is breaking away from a consolidation which could be called a running correction. Two weeks ago Gold broke to a new high. Last week Gold retested the breakout and then advanced to another new high at the end of the week. Its textbook bullish action. Yet the gold shares have really struggled.

Last week the shares failed to make a new high and underperformed badly. GDX never broke to a new high and is below its December high. GDXJ did break to a new high but is now at its December high. Gold is nearing $1500. Its December high was $1425.

There are real reasons for these divergences. Some peers think its the hedge funds shorting the shares or manipulating the market either intentionally or unintentionally. Some think its manipulation by the powers that be. The fact is, these assertions have not been proven and there are some fundamental reasons for the divergence.

The price of Oil comprises about one quarter of the cost of mining. Remember 2007-2008 when the gold stocks badly underperformed? Part of that was because Oil went from $60 to $150. Sure the Gold/Oil ratio is now well above its highs from 2000-2008, but since the summer of 2010 its decreased from 17 to 13. That will cut into margins this year.

Secondly (and we’ve written about this before), the Canadian gold price is up only 13% since its peak in February 2009 and up only 7% since last June. Most gold companies are Canadian companies. Its the Canadian price that is more important to them. Thus, a weak US dollar eventually negatively impacts gold producers.

The gold shares have underperformed a rising price of Gold in the past. We saw it in 2004 and also in 2007-2008. It generally precedes corrections and that is a reason to be cautious beyond the short-term, which looks positive. It is not manipulation or intervention. The proof this time is that all gold shares (seniors, mid-tiers and juniors) are now under-performing.

We’ve noted the fundamental considerations but maybe the market knows something else we don’t. Perhaps the market senses a top in equities? Perhaps the market sees an intermediate term top ahead for Gold and Silver? Perhaps the market thinks the shares will struggle in the seasonally weakest period of the year?

We are short-term bulls but cannot be too bullish with the broad divergence between the shares and the metal. In this bull market, this divergence has always resolved itself with a correction in the sector. Sure it could be different this time but we think not.

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IGC widens forecast for grain deficit in 2011-12

by Agrimoney.com

Grains gurus have slashed hopes for any recovery in world grain inventories next season, lifting forecasts for consumption at a time when weather is threatening crops in many major producing nations.
The International Grains Council, which a month ago pegged the production deficit in grains in 2011-12 at 3m tonnes, on Wednesday lifted its estimate to 10m tonnes.
The deficit will lower stocks to a four-year low of 334m tonnes, representing 18.4% of consumption, down from 23% two seasons ago, when readier supplies accelerated a fall in grain prices.
"A further downturn in world carryover stocks is likely," the IGC.
'Less-than-ideal conditions'
The forecasts helped a rally in grain prices which took Chicago wheat for May back over $8 a bushel at one point, and saw London's May contract hit a record high of £222.00 a tonne.
Closing crop prices
Chicago wheat: $7.85 a bushel, -0.1%
Kansas wheat: $9.20 a bushel, -0.7%
Minneapolis wheat: $9.38 ¾ a bushel,-0.5%
Chicago corn: $7.32 ¾ a bushel, -2.2%
Paris wheat: E253.75 a tonne, +1.0% London wheat: £217.50 a tonne, +0.2%
Prices for May contracts
However, the rally foundered as weather forecasts introduced drier weather into the outlook for major US corn areas, where chances had looked dim of getting sowings wrapped up anywhere near May 10, seen as the cut-off date after which yields suffer.
"Latest extended outlooks have turned drier and could allow the farmers in the fields in early May," Benson Quinn Commodities said.
While the broker, for wheat, noted continued "dry conditions in US, the European Union, Russia and China" – four of the world's top five producers – and snow in North American areas gearing up for spring wheat plantings, corn prices lost 2% in Chicago, dragging US wheat into negative territory by the close.
'Very low supplies'
The IGC flagged the threats to wheat production in cutting by 1m tonnes to 672m tonnes its estimate for the world harvest in 2011-12.
Selected IGC world forecasts for 2011-12 and (year-on-year change)
Corn harvest: 847m tonnes, (+4.7%)
Corn year-end stocks: 186m tonnes, (-6.7%)
Wheat production: 672m tonnes, (+3.4%)
Wheat year-end stocks: 186m tonnes, (unchanged)
Total grains production: 1.808bn tonnes, (+4.5%)
Total grains year-end stocks: 334m tonnes, (-2.6%)
"Less-than-ideal conditions for some crops lower the projection of world wheat production," the council said, adding that "adversely dry conditions and a delayed start to spring seeding in parts of the northern hemisphere may affect the final outcome".
But it highlighted world corn inventories as set to prove particularly thin in 2011-12, falling for a third successive season, this time by 8m tonnes.
"Unless the US maize [corn] crop exceeds all expectations, supplies of this grain will remain very low," despite better prospects for the European Union crop this year, and a likely switch by livestock farmers to wheat in the face of high corn prices.
Indeed, IGC analysts lifted further their estimate for corn consumption by US ethanol plants.
They also highlighted concerns about "dwindling supplies" of high-protein milling wheat, following rain damage to last year's Australian, Canadian and German crops


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Earnings "Beat Rate" Not Looking So Great...So Far

by Bespoke Investment Group

It's still early yet, but the earnings "beat rate" -- the percentage of companies beating earnings estimates -- this earnings season is not looking so great. As shown in the first chart below, 64% of US companies have beaten earnings estimates so far this earnings season. A "beat rate" of 64% would be the weakest reading since the start of the bull market back in April 2009. Again, it's still early, but unfortunately the "beat rate" has historically started out high and drifted lower as earnings season progresses. If that's the case this earnings season, the "beat rate" could have a five handle.



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Bearish Sentiment Up for the Second Week in a Row

by Bespoke Investment Group

After hitting its lowest level in over a year two weeks ago, bearish sentiment from Investors Intelligence rose for the second week in a row. At a level of 19.2%, however, current levels remain low by historical standards. Given the weakness equities had been seeing in the past few days, the increased cautious tone out of advisors was understandable, but after today's rally more than a handful are no doubt moaning, "Doh!"



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Quantitative Easing and the Fed Balance Sheets 50% Contraction

By: John_Mauldin

Dr. John Hussman is no stranger to Outside the Box readers. And his recent posting has my mind reeling. In essence he is saying that if the Fed wants to stop the QE and allow rates to rise, they must either reverse the QE or bring on inflation. And he does it with numbers and his usual strong reasoning. I really did read this 3-4 times, thinking through the implications.

 “There are a few possible outcomes as we move forward. One is that the economy weakens, and the Fed decides to leave interest rates unchanged, or even to initiate an additional round of quantitative easing. In this event, it's quite possible that we still would not observe much inflation, provided that interest rates are held down far enough. Unfortunately, the larger the monetary base, the lower the interest rate required for a non-inflationary outcome. T-bills are already at less than 4 basis points. In the event of even another $200 billion in quantitative easing, the liquidity preference curve suggests that Treasury bill yields would have to be held at literally a single basis point in order to avoid inflationary pressures.”

You can read his latest work at www.hussman.net .

Note on Finland. The True Finns took over 19% of the vote, with the largest party getting slightly more than 20% and the number two a little less. Basically, 15% of Finnish voters used the True Finns to register their displeasure at the bailout at the cost of Finnish taxpayers. Germany is starting to talk about “restructuring”Greek debt, another word for default. The German banks must be getting in better shape if the talk is out in the open among German leaders – much as I said a year ago. Stay tuned.

Your wondering how the Fed will pull this off (without a real problem developing) analyst,

John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box
Charles Plosser and the 50% Contraction in the Fed's Balance Sheet
by John P. Hussman, Ph.D

Last week, an unusual event happened in the money markets that should not escape the attention of investors. The yield on 3-month Treasury bills plunged to less than 5 basis points. As I noted this past January in Sixteen Cents: Pushing the Unstable Limits of Monetary Policy , a collapse in short-term yields to nearly zero is a predictable outcome of QE2, based on the very robust historical relationship between short-term interest rates and the amount of cash and bank reserves (monetary base) that people are willing to hold per dollar of nominal GDP:

"Barring external upward pressures on interest rates, a further non-inflationary expansion of the Fed's balance sheet of $400 billion, to $2.4 trillion (as contemplated under QE2), would imply the need for 3-month Treasury yields to fall to just 0.05%. Higher rates would be inflationary, because monetary velocity would not be sufficiently restrained. In effect, a further expansion in the monetary base requires that short-term interest rates decline enough to ensure a significant drop in velocity.

"In terms of liquidity preference, a completion of QE2 requires liquidity preference to increase to 16 cents per dollar of nominal GDP - easily the highest level in history. We hit 15 cents at the peak of the credit crisis. To get past that, short-term interest rates will have to decline to the point where there is no competition from interest rates at all, but where the slightest amount of interest rate pressure would either drive inflation higher or force a massive contraction in the Fed's balance sheet to avoid that outcome. Then what?"

On further review, that "16 cents" figure actually underestimates how extreme the situation will be within a few weeks. The monetary base has already surpassed $2.4 trillion. Indeed, as of Wednesday, the U.S. monetary base stood at $2.49 trillion. QE2, as presently contemplated, will actually bring the U.S. monetary base to over $2.6 trillion. As the Fed notes in its report Domestic Open Market Operations during 2010:

"With progress towards its statutory objectives of maximum employment and price stability disappointingly slow in the fall of 2010, most Committee members judged it appropriate to provide additional monetary accommodation. Accordingly, the FOMC announced at its November meeting that it intended to increase the total face value of domestic securities in the SOMA portfolio to approximately $2.6 trillion by the end of June 2011 by purchasing a further $600 billion of longer term Treasury securities in addition to any amounts associated with the reinvestment of principal payments on agency debt and MBS."

With nominal GDP at about $15 trillion, the U.S. economy will then have to hold well over 17 cents of base moneof base money per dollar of GDP. In order to prevent inflationary impact from this level of monetary base (that is, to prevent base money from becoming a "hot potato" that nobody is willing to hold), we estimate that 3-month Treasury bill yields will have to be sustained no higher than a few basis points until the Fed reverses course.
 

Tracking QE2

Market participants widely assume that they are relatively "safe" to take speculative risk through mid-year, on the belief that the Fed's policy of quantitative easing will be sustained through the end of June. But looking at the monetary data, it is not clear that the Fed's statement "by the end of the second quarter" means "precisely until the end of the second quarter."

We can evaluate the pace of QE2 in two ways. One is by looking directly at the monetary base. QE2 transactions expand the Fed's balance sheet, increasing its assets (Treasury debt) and simultaneously increasing its liabilities (currency and bank reserves). So we can measure the progress of QE2 by calculating the change in the monetary base since QE2 was initiated.

Monetary Base 11/03/10: $1985.1 billion
Monetary Base 04/06/11: $2490.3 billion
QE2 completed based on change in Monetary Base: $505.2 billion

A second way to evaluate the pace of QE2 is to go directly to the information on "permanent open market operations" (POMO) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. However, the POMO figures also include reinvestment of principal repayments from mortgage-backed securities. So a portion of these transactions do not change the monetary base - they simply exchange mortgage-backed assets with Treasury securities. The cumulative par amount accepted by NY FRB from 11/04/10 through 04/07/11 is $523.2 billion

A $600 billion addition to the monetary base from QE2 would leave the Fed with only about $94.8 billion of QE2 transactions remaining. Alternatively, the targeted size of the Fed's SOMA (System Open Market Account) portfolio is $2600 billion at the end of QE2 (this is the primary repository of assets backing the monetary base, the remainder representing the Maiden Lane portfolios and about $11 billion in gold). As of April 6, the SOMA portfolio was already at $2421 billion. This would leave a larger $179 billion remaining to QE2, putting the program about 70% complete. The average pace of Fed purchases since February has been about $5.5 billion per business day, with about $4.7 billion adding to the monetary base, on average (the rest representing mortgage principal reinvestments). That leaves QE2 somewhere between 20 to 38 business days from completion.

The next FOMC meeting is on April 26-27. While there has been some debate on whether the Fed might decide at that meeting to terminate the policy of QE2 early, that debate is actually moot. By the time the Fed meets later this month, QE2 will already be at least be at least 85% complete.
 

Charles Plosser and the 50% contraction of the Fed's balance sheet

A week ago, Charles Plosser, the head of Philadelpha Federal Reserve Bank, argued that the Fed should increase short-term interest rates to 2.5% "starting in the not-too-distant-future," preferably during the coming year. Given the robust historical relationship between short-term yields and the amount base money per dollar of nominal GDP, we can make a fairly tight estimate of how much the Fed would have to contract the monetary base in order to achieve a 2.5% yield without provoking inflationary pressures. While the monetary base will be over $2.5 trillion by the end of this month, a 2.5% interest rate would require a contraction of about $1.4 trillion in the Fed's balance sheet, to a smaller monetary base of just over $1.1 trillion.

[Geeks Note: The interest rate estimates here are based on the inverse of the liquidity preference function, which explains 96% of the historical variation in money holdings as a fraction of nominal GDP. The dynamic equation is i = exp(4.25 - 129.87*M/PY + 84.42*M/PY_lagged_6_mos). This has the steady-state of i = exp(4.27 - 45.5*M/PY). See the original " Sixteen Cents" piece for further details].

In his comments, Plosser discussed a plan to sell about $125 billion in Fed holdings for every 0.25% increase in the Fed Funds rate. That overall estimate (implying $1.25 trillion in total balance sheet reductions) is slightly low, but close to our own calculations. Plosser's estimates correctly imply that a 2.5% non-inflationary interest rate target would require the Fed's balance sheet to contract by more than 50%.

The problem, however, is that the required shift in the monetary base is not linear. It's heavily front-loaded in the sense that massive reductions the Fed's balance sheet would be required in the first few hikes (see the scatter plot near the top of this comment). Based on the historical liquidity preference relationship (which explains about 96% of the variation in historical data), and assuming nominal GDP of $15 trillion, the following are levels of the monetary base consistent with a non-inflationary increase in short-term interest rates up to 2.5%. The non-inflationary provision is important. You can't just allow interest rates to rise without contracting the monetary base. Otherwise, as noted earlier, non-interest bearing money would quickly become a hot potato and inflation would predictably follow:

Treasury bill yields and monetary base consistent with price stability

0.03%: $2.60 trillion
0.25%: $1.92 trillion
0.50%: $1.68 trillion
0.75%: $1.54 trillion
1.00%: $1.44 trillion
1.25%: $1.36 trillion
1.50%: $1.30 trillion
1.75%: $1.24 trillion
2.00%: $1.20 trillion
2.25%: $1.16 trillion
2.50%: $1.12 trillion

The upshot is that Plosser's estimate of about $125 billion in asset sales for every 0.25% increase in yields is a reasonably accurate overall average, but the profile of required asset sales is enormously front-loaded. The first hike will be, by far, the most difficult. In order to achieve a non-inflationary increase in yields even to 0.25%, the Fed will have to reverse the entire amount of asset purchases it has engaged in under QE2. Indeed, the last time we observed Treasury bill yields at 0.25%, the monetary base was well under $2 trillion.
In my view, this is a major problem for the Fed, but is the inevitable result of pushing monetary policy to what I've called its "unstable limits." High levels of monetary base, per dollar of nominal GDP, require extremely low interest rates in order to avoid inflation. Conversely, raising interest rates anywhere above zero requires a massive contraction in the monetary base in order to avoid inflation. Ben Bernanke has left the Fed with no graceful way to exit the situation.

As a side note, it's probably worth noting that the Federal Reserve has already pushed its balance sheet to a point where it is leveraged 50-to-1 against its capital ($2.65 trillion / $52.6 billion in capital as reported the Fed's consolidated balance sheet ). This is a greater leverage ratio than Bear Stearns or Fannie Mae, with similar interest rate risk but less default risk. The Fed holds roughly $1.3 trillion in Treasury debt, $937 billion in mortgage securities by Fannie and Freddie, $132 billion of direct obligations of Fannie, Freddie and the FHLB, and nearly $80 billion in TIPS and T-bills. The maturity distribution of these assets works out to an average duration of about 6 years, which implies that the Fed would lose roughly 6% in value for every 100 basis points higher in long-term interest rates. Given that the Fed only holds 2% in capital against these assets, a 35-basis point increase in long-term yields would effectively wipe out the Fed's capital.

Still, the Fed also earns an interest spread between its assets and its liabilities, providing about 3% annually (as a percentage of assets) in excess interest to eat through, which would allow a further 50 basis point rise in interest rates over a 12-month period without wiping out that additional cushion. In that case, the interest paid on the Federal debt held by the Fed would be used to cover the Fed's losses, rather than being remitted back to the Treasury. In any event, it is clear that if the Federal Reserve was an ordinary bank, regulators would quickly shut it down.

To avoid the potentially untidy embarrassment of being insolvent on paper, the Fed quietly made an accounting change several weeks ago that will allow any losses to be reported as a new line item - a "negative liability" to the Treasury - rather than being deducted from its capital. Now, technically, a negative liability to the Treasury would mean that the Treasury owes the Fed money, which would be, well, a fraudulent claim, and certainly not a budget item approved by Congress, but we've established in recent quarters that nobody cares about misleading balance sheets, Constitutional prerogative, or the rule of law as long as speculators can get a rally going, so I'll leave it at that.

Looking Ahead

Assets compete. If you create a huge volume of non-interest bearing money, somebody somewhere has to hold it. So long as close substitutes such as Treasury bills offer any competition at all, investors try to shift out of the non-interest bearing stuff into the interest-bearing stuff. Of course, in equilibrium, that sort of shift is impossible in aggregate since somebody still has to hold the money. So the result of the Fed's quantitative easing is that short-term interest rates have dropped to about zero. As long as that happens, people are OK holding the money, and you don't need to have inflationary consequences, but the sensitivity to small errors becomes magnified. Meanwhile, QE has also caused investors to seek out riskier assets, and the result has been an increase in stock prices, commodity prices and a variety of speculative securities. As prices rise, prospective future returns fall. The process stops at the point where all assets, on a maturity- and risk-adjusted basis, are priced to achieve probable returns near zero.
And so here we are.

There are a few possible outcomes as we move forward. One is that the economy weakens, and the Fed decides to leave interest rates unchanged, or even to initiate an additional round of quantitative easing. In this event, it's quite possible that we still would not observe much inflation, provided that interest rates are held down far enough. Unfortunately, the larger the monetary base, the lower the interest rate required for a non-inflationary outcome. T-bills are already at less than 4 basis points. In the event of even another $200 billion in quantitative easing, the liquidity preference curve suggests that Treasury bill yields would have to be held at literally a single basis point in order to avoid inflationary pressures.

A second possibility is that we observe any sort of external pressure on short-term interest rates, independent of Fed policy. In that event, the Fed would have to rapidly contract its balance sheet in order to avoid an inflationary outcome. As noted above, even a quarter-percent increase in short-term interest rates would require a full-scale reversal of QE2. Alternatively, the Fed could leave the monetary base alone, and allow prices to restore the balance between base money and nominal GDP. In order to accommodate short-term interest rates of just 0.25% in steady-state, leaving the monetary base unchanged at present levels, a 40% increase in the CPI would be required. I doubt that we'll observe this outcome, but it provides some sense of what I mean when I talk about the Fed pushing monetary policy to its "unstable limits."

In case the foregoing comment seems preposterous, it's helpful to remember that the U.S. economy has never held even 10 cents of monetary base per dollar of nominal GDP except when short-term interest rates have been below 2%. We are presently approaching 17 cents. So you can think of the situation this way. Short-term interest rates of 2% are consistent with money demand of about 10 cents of base money per dollar of GDP. To get there, with the monetary base unchanged, you would have to increase nominal GDP (mostly through price increases) by 70%. Again, because the relationship is non-linear, this impact would be front-loaded. Significant inflation pressure would emerge in response to an increase of even 0.25% - 0.50% in short-term interest rates. Historically, it has taken about 6-8 months for such pressures to translate into observed inflation.

A third possibility is that the Fed intentionally reduces the monetary base, gradually moving interest rates higher as Plosser suggests. This is undoubtedly the best course, in my view, but it's important to recognize that there are already substantial risks baked in the cake as a result of the Fed's recklessness up to this point. The first 25 basis points will require an enormous contraction of the Fed's balance sheet. Risky assets have already been pushed to price levels that now provide very weak prospective returns. Our 10-year annual total return projection for the S&P 500 remains in the 3.4% area. Expected returns for shorter horizons are near zero or negative, but are associated with greater potential variability. Commodity prices have been predictably driven higher by the hoarding that results from negative short-term interest rates (if you expect inflation, but interest rates don't compensate, you have an incentive to buy storable goods now, and this process stops when commodity prices are so high that they are actually expected to depreciate relative to a broad basket of goods and services, to the same extent that money is expected to depreciate).

In short, the outcome of the present situation need not be rapid inflation, and need not be steep market losses. Rather, the predictable outcome is instability. If you put a brick on a flagpole, and keep raising the flagpole and adding more bricks, you don't have the luxury of predicting when the bricks will fall, or in what direction. What you do know, however, is that the situation is not stable. People may briefly be rewarded for standing directly below, cheering, while branding anyone who keeps their distance as fools or worse. But if you look closely, those cheerleaders are typically hiding enormous welts, scars and gashes from being repeatedly smacked over the head - if you look even closer, you'll find that they have typically thrived no better for it over the long-term. While it's possible to continue without unpleasant events, the Fed has already placed the course of the economy, inflation, and the financial markets beyond a comfortable scope of control should surprises emerge.

Market Climate

As of last week, the Market Climate for stocks was characterized by a syndrome of overvaluation, overbought conditions, overbullish sentiment, and rising yield pressures that has historically been hostile to stocks on average. Every component of this syndrome worsened last week. Our estimate of 10-year projected total returns for the S&P 500 is presently just 3.4% annually, the major indices remain overbought on an intermediate-term basis, and Investors Intelligence reports that bullish sentiment has surged to 57.3% bulls and only 15.7% bears, which is close to the spread we observed at the 2007 market peak. Investors Intelligence observes "extreme readings, as we are experiencing right now, historically have major significance." Meanwhile, upward interest rate pressures reasserted themselves last week. Both Strategic Growth Fund and Strategic International Equity remain well hedged here.

Importantly, our defensive stance is not driven by the expected completion of QE2, nor our considerable doubts about the potential for a successful economic "handoff" to the private sector in the face of tightening federal and state budgets and a fiscal cliff as stimulus funding to the states rolls off about mid-year. All of those considerations make us aware of potential risks, but in practice, we are defensive based on testable and observable market conditions that have historically been associated with a negative return/risk profile, on average.

Though the market has not recovered to its February highs here, the measures that define the "overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising yields" syndrome are actually worse now, on balance. While there remains a possibility that we can clear some component of this syndrome without also observing a strong deterioration in broader market internals (including breadth across individual stocks, industries, and sectors, leadership measures, price-volume action across a wide range of industries and security types, and other factors), conditions are so extended here that there is now only a narrow "window" between a market decline that would be sufficient to clear the overbought or overbullish components of the present hostile syndrome, and a market decline that would signal a larger and more robust shift toward investor risk aversion. Put simply, a market decline that clears this syndrome could be a whopper. That said, we'll respond to the evidence as it emerges, and will continue to look for opportunities to accept exposure to market fluctuations as the overall return/risk profile improves.

In bonds, the Market Climate deteriorated last week. On Tuesday, in response to evidence of accelerating yield pressures, as well the recognition that QE2 was much further along than investors widely seem to believe, we substantially cut our bond duration to about 1.5 years in Strategic Total Return.

In gold, the further advance in prices on shallow corrections brings us back to the concern I expressed a few weeks ago about bubble-type action. Silver prices are displaying even more exaggerated "log-periodic" behavior, as are some agricultural commodities. We don't know exactly when this will end, but we would prefer to scale back early rather than late. A Sornette-type analysis (see Anatomy of a Bubble) suggests a "finite-time singularity" within days or weeks. Any additional upward leaps in price, with very shallow corrections and increasing volatility at 10-minute intervals would strengthen that impression further. I've been generally bullish on gold since September of 2000, when it was below $300 an ounce and we observed a clearly favorable shift in the set of conditions I noted in Going for the Gold . Our actual gold models are more elaborate in practice, but as I noted back then, precious metals shares tend to perform far better in the face of falling Treasury yields, particularly when the ISM indices are weak. Those conditions are absent at present, and the recent extreme price behavior is of some concern. The rally in gold stock prices late in the week gave us an opportunity to clip our exposure back to about 6% of assets in Strategic Total Return. The risks in precious metals are clearly increasing.

* As a technical note, I've seen a comment from a number of analysts lately, along the lines of "there's been an 80% correlation between the size of the monetary base and the level of the S&P 500 since early 2009." This is just poor statistics. There's little doubt that the two have been related, but the seemingly impressive strength of the correlation is completely an artifact of the shared upward slope. If you take any two series with generally diagonal trends and little cyclical fluctuation, you'll always get a "strong" correlation. That's not to say that the stock market has not been substantially driven by Fed policy, but rather to warn against careless statistical reasoning more generally. I guarantee that there's also a correlation of more than 80% between the height of a baby kangaroo in Melbourne and the cumulative number of eggs laid by a hen in Oklahoma since early 2009.

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Etichette: articles, Economy article, Finance article, market articles

When Silver Hit $50/oz In 1980

by John Navin

Memories of the 1980 top in silver are very clear to me because that’s when I made my first trek to a coin shop and purchased a hundred dollars worth of dimes as a long-term investment.

Looking back, I now see it as the clear sign of a top — when the ridiculous morning radio dj with no real financial knowledge makes a buy based on newspaper headlines, that’s a market that’s probably just about had it.

But that episode spurred my interest in the investments world and it was only a few months later that I found myself being hired at Dean Witter, which had just opened up a brand new mutual fund specializing in — guess what — the precious metals market. Another spectacular sign of a spectacular top.

My silver dimes disappeared long ago. They might be sitting in the basement of a house I used to own, but retrieving them would involve an ex-wife situation and it’s probably best to leave it all alone. I just don’t like the risk/reward on that.

And I don’t think that mutual fund is around anymore either after dropping in half within a year or two of the offering and staying down there for years and years.

A few weeks ago, I mentioned how peculiar it’s been to see gold above its 1980 high of $800/oz, while silver has spent most of last year playing catch up to its old all-time peak. It’s been catching up like crazy lately, but what took so long? It’s been quite the divergence.

Now that the white metal is within reach of that generational high, what does it indicate about the metals market from a technical analysis standpoint?

I think it means that the 10-year gold rally is about over. Silver’s parabolic move toward $50 is likely to exhaust itself as selling begins to show up near or at the all time high. You’ll see this expand to the precious metals markets as a whole when the realization takes hold that the 1980 high is also massive resistance to further quick gains.

In other words, the tulip bulb-like mania in the silver market may be about to hit a wall and that likely affects the entire metals complex.

Some would question whether a 31-year old resistance area could still be respected — could price levels from that long ago still affect modern day trading? That’s the beauty of being an old guy — I’ve seen it before, many times.

The gold point-and-figure chart below indicates the first support level for gold — way down there at $1000 an ounce. Chart courtesy of the legendary Skip Danger. I’d guess that silver will re-trace along the same lines.
Classic point & figure chart for gold

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Etichette: articles, commodity, commodity article, metals, silver

AMERICA IS NOT BROKE

by Cullen Roche

It’s nice to see some mainstream economists making logical arguments with regards to America’s financial position. In a recent research piece Credit Suisse shows that America is far from being broke. Of course, anyone who understands MMT and the actual workings of a modern fiat monetary system knows this is a preposterous notion to begin with, but CS is using a traditional framework and their evidence counters much of what we so often hear from fear mongerers and politicians:
“Some of our senior politicians and market pundits say it every day: “America is broke.”
We wonder if this is meant to be a joke. America is not even close to being broke. Household net worth is $57T. Public government debt – including the state and local sector – is about $12T. If we consolidate balance sheets to reflect the fact that the household sector is ultimately responsible for repaying this debt we arrive at a household net worth of $45T or 303% of GDP. This is at the high-end of the historical norm of 250- to 300% since the data began in 1952. The current level was surpassed only in the recent tech stock and housing bubbles.
No doubt policymakers have a lot of work to do in terms of agreeing on a politically palatable way to adjust current laws to reduce the unprecedented intergenerational transfer of wealth associated with old entitlement programs and a wave of new retirees. But, ultimately, the resources are there and as we are increasingly finding out, so too is the political will.”

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Etichette: articles, Economy article, Finance article, market articles

Qualcomm results shine amid smartphone optimism

By JORDAN ROBERTSON

The rise of smartphones is leading to a profound shift in the semiconductor industry, as companies that focus on mobile chips have found themselves in computing's new sweet spot.

Qualcomm Inc., whose chips are inside Apple Inc.'s iPhone and more than half of all new smartphones based on Google Inc.'s rival Android operating system, showed Wednesday how lucrative that position can be.

The company reported after the market closed that its net income jumped 29 percent and revenue rose 46 percent in the latest quarter, easily surpassing Wall Street's targets. Stronger sales of its communications chips were key, as were higher licensing fees for Qualcomm's wireless technology.

Qualcomm said it resolved the second of two previously disclosed disputes with licensees, and that the latest quarter included $401 million in revenue related to previous quarters as a result of those settlements.

The company raised its guidance for the current quarter, and its shares rose $2.73, or 5 percent, to $58 in extended trading, after the results were reported.

Qualcomm's net income was $999 million, or 59 cents per share, versus $774 million, or 46 cents per share, a year ago.

Excluding items, the company would have earned 86 cents per share, better than the 80 cents per share that analysts polled by FactSet were expecting.

Revenue rose 46 percent to $3.88 billion, ahead of the $3.62 billion analysts expected.

For the current quarter, the company expects net income of 68 cents per share to 72 cents per share, excluding items. Analysts had predicted 69 cents per share. Qualcomm sees revenue of $3.35 billion to $3.65 billion, ahead of the $3.40 billion that analysts had been forecasting.

The numbers indicate how small, Internet-connected gadgets are reshaping the computer market.

Some analysts have expressed concerns about the ability of entrenched companies in the PC industry such as Intel Corp. and Microsoft Corp. to adapt to a market that's tilting toward leaner and lower-power devices. But the sheer scale of the PC industry means there's still plenty of money to be made there.

Intel, the world's biggest maker of PC processors, is benefiting from strong sales to corporations, which are in the midst of a yearlong upgrade cycle. Intel reported quarterly numbers this week that also topped Wall Street's projections, helping lift other technology stocks Wednesday.

Qualcomm, which is based in San Diego, is in league with other companies such as Texas Instruments Inc. and Nvidia Corp. whose mobile chips are in demand for the new classes of mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets.

Texas Instruments reported this week that revenue from its wireless connectivity products increased, despite extensive damage to two its factories in Japan from the deadly March 11 earthquake and tsunami. Nvidia, best known for its graphics chips for PCs, is now gaining momentum with its Tegra brand of chips for phones and tablets.

Qualcomm's Snapdragon mobile processor is being used in a new tablet by Hewlett-Packard Co.. Qualcomm says some 20 tablets that use the chip are in development. The chip is also being used in smartphones that use Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 software.

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Apple earnings strong, couldn't meet iPad demand

By PETER SVENSSON

Apple Inc. is already the envy of the technology world. On Wednesday, it rubbed it in with quarterly results that had only one blemish: It couldn't make the new iPads fast enough.

"We sold every iPad 2 we could make," Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer said.

Apple sold 4.7 million iPads of both kinds in its latest quarter, below analyst expectations and the holiday quarter's sales. It launched the second version of the tablet computer two weeks before the end of the period. Prospective buyers likely held off for the new model, which then turned out to be tough to find.

Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook told investors on a conference call that timing production lines to the transition from one model to the next is always difficult. He said the company has to make decisions "many, many weeks in advance."

Now, he said, progress is being made on expanding iPad production. The company is expanding sales of the tablet to 13 more countries next week, bringing the total to 39.

"I'm very confident that we can produce a very large number of iPads for the quarter," said Cook, who is known for deft management of supply chains and inventory.

Apple launched the original iPad last April, and it's turned out to be the first really successful tablet computer. The company has sold 19.5 million iPads through the latest quarter.

Analysts now see it encroaching significantly on PC sales. Competitors are rushing out their own tablets, but none have come close to matching the iPad's reception.

Apple said net income for its fiscal second quarter, which ended March 26, was $5.99 billion, or $6.40 per share. That's up 95 percent from $3.07 billion, or $3.33 per share, a year ago.

Analysts polled by FactSet were expecting earnings of $5.37 per share.

Revenue was $24.7 billion, up 83 percent from $13.5 billion a year ago. Analysts were expecting $23.4 billion.

The results were lifted by the record sale of 18.65 million iPhones, millions more than analysts had expected. Verizon Wireless started selling the phone in the quarter, ending AT&T Inc.'s three-and-half-year period of being the only U.S. iPhone carrier. In most of the 90 other countries where the iPhone is available, it is sold by more than one phone company.

Earlier Wednesday, AT&T reported strong iPhone sales, as it continued to upgrade many existing subscribers even in the face of competition from Verizon.

Apple, which is based in Cupertino, Calif., sold 3.8 million Mac computers in the quarter, a 28 percent increase over last year. The increase is particularly notable given that research firms found a contraction of 1 percent to 3 percent in the overall PC market in the same period.

For the current quarter, Apple said it expects revenue of $23 billion and earnings of about $5.03 per share. Both figures are below analyst expectations of $23.9 billion and $5.26 per share, respectively. Apple commonly lowballs its forecasts, but Cook said the effects of the earthquake on the Japanese economy would lower revenue by $200 million, or about 1 percent.

Electronics manufacturers are struggling with disrupted supplies of components from Japan, but Cook said there are no unsolvable problems for Apple in sight.

After the release of the results, Apple shares rose $14.34, or 4.2 percent, to $356.75 in extended trading, climbing more than half of the way to the all-time high of $364.90. They rose 1.4 percent in regular trading earlier.

CEO Steve Jobs went on medical leave in January and did not participate on Wednesday's conference call (he typically didn't participate in earnings calls even before his leave). Cook is running day-to-day operations.
"We do see him on a regular basis and as we've previously said, he continues to be involved in major strategic decisions," Cook said. 

There has been speculation that the next iPhone model would arrive some months later than the usual June-July time frame. Cook said nothing substantive in response to analyst questions on the subject.

Cook reiterated Apple's position on 4G "Long-Term Evolution" chips, used for super-high data speeds on Verizon's new network. He said they force design compromises that Apple isn't prepared to make. 

Competitor HTC Corp. is already selling an LTE phone that uses Verizon's network, but Cook's comments appear to make it unlikely that Apple's next phone would do the same.

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