IGC widens forecast for grain deficit in 2011-12

by Agrimoney.com

Grains gurus have slashed hopes for any recovery in world grain inventories next season, lifting forecasts for consumption at a time when weather is threatening crops in many major producing nations.

The International Grains Council, which a month ago pegged the production deficit in grains in 2011-12 at 3m tonnes, on Wednesday lifted its estimate to 10m tonnes.

The deficit will lower stocks to a four-year low of 334m tonnes, representing 18.4% of consumption, down from 23% two seasons ago, when readier supplies accelerated a fall in grain prices.

"A further downturn in world carryover stocks is likely," the IGC.

'Less-than-ideal conditions'

The forecasts helped a rally in grain prices which took Chicago wheat for May back over $8 a bushel at one point, and saw London's May contract hit a record high of £222.00 a tonne.

Closing crop prices Chicago wheat: $7.85 a bushel, -0.1% Kansas wheat: $9.20 a bushel, -0.7% Minneapolis wheat: $9.38 ¾ a bushel,-0.5% Chicago corn: $7.32 ¾ a bushel, -2.2% Paris wheat: E253.75 a tonne, +1.0% London wheat: £217.50 a tonne, +0.2% Prices for May contracts

However, the rally foundered as weather forecasts introduced drier weather into the outlook for major US corn areas, where chances had looked dim of getting sowings wrapped up anywhere near May 10, seen as the cut-off date after which yields suffer.

"Latest extended outlooks have turned drier and could allow the farmers in the fields in early May," Benson Quinn Commodities said.

While the broker, for wheat, noted continued "dry conditions in US, the European Union, Russia and China" – four of the world's top five producers – and snow in North American areas gearing up for spring wheat plantings, corn prices lost 2% in Chicago, dragging US wheat into negative territory by the close.

'Very low supplies'

The IGC flagged the threats to wheat production in cutting by 1m tonnes to 672m tonnes its estimate for the world harvest in 2011-12.

Selected IGC world forecasts for 2011-12 and (year-on-year change) Corn harvest: 847m tonnes, (+4.7%) Corn year-end stocks: 186m tonnes, (-6.7%) Wheat production: 672m tonnes, (+3.4%) Wheat year-end stocks: 186m tonnes, (unchanged) Total grains production: 1.808bn tonnes, (+4.5%) Total grains year-end stocks: 334m tonnes, (-2.6%)

"Less-than-ideal conditions for some crops lower the projection of world wheat production," the council said, adding that "adversely dry conditions and a delayed start to spring seeding in parts of the northern hemisphere may affect the final outcome".

But it highlighted world corn inventories as set to prove particularly thin in 2011-12, falling for a third successive season, this time by 8m tonnes.

"Unless the US maize [corn] crop exceeds all expectations, supplies of this grain will remain very low," despite better prospects for the European Union crop this year, and a likely switch by livestock farmers to wheat in the face of high corn prices.

Indeed, IGC analysts lifted further their estimate for corn consumption by US ethanol plants.

They also highlighted concerns about "dwindling supplies" of high-protein milling wheat, following rain damage to last year's Australian, Canadian and German crops


See the original article >>