by Agrimoney.com
Will data later on really show decent progress in wrapping up corn sowings, and catching up on soybean plantings too?
If ag bears were unnerved about the prospect of the US Department of Agriculture crop progress report, released after the market close, they were not showing it in early deals.
The short-covering which marked the last session, amid concerns of further rain delays to fieldwork, dried up, allowing crops to make a soft start to the week.
'Rainfall below expectations'
In fact, "weekend rainfall was slightly below expectations" in the US Midwest, the corn and soybean production heartland where rain delays really count, according to weather service MDA, if acknowledging that they are nonetheless "leading to soybean planting delays and increasing wetness concerns".
And looking ahead, "the western Corn Belt and central Plains look pretty dry for the next three days before the rains begin to move back into the western Corn Belt days four and five," WxRisk.com said.
The western Corn Belt includes Iowa, the top corn and soybean producing state, where planting delays have been of particular concern.
Furthermore, concerns ahead of a heat dome spreading north from the South, bringing potentially too much heat, and temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit, faded too.
'Market wants those soybeans'
The drier spell at the weekend prompted ideas that the report later on Monday will show corn plantings at or potentially higher than the 93-95% range investors were talking about last week.
"We expect corn planting to be close to completion this week, and in fact the wet weather can be beneficial to crop emergence," Joyce Liu at Benson Quinn Commodities said.
For soybeans, the talk was of a 70% completion rate, up from 57% the week before, and a strong pace would curb the need to persuade farmers to continue with sowings rather than file insurance claims when so-called "prevent plant" deadlines kick in.
Mike Mawdsley, at Iowa-based broker Market 1, flagged that the market had last week, in rallying, been "trying to buy needed acres.
"The market wants those soybeans and not prevented planting."
More data ahead
There were some extra factors to take account of too, including the USDA's Wasde report coming on Wednesday, which in which officials are expected to trim forecasts for the rebuild in US corn stocks at the close of 2013-14 to 1.83bn bushels, from a May estimate of 2.00bn bushels, factoring in the poor sowing progress.
Furthermore, the so-called Goldman roll is ongoing, in which index funds switch from near-term to forward futures contracts, so avoiding the expiry process, and in theory putting pressure on front lots – although other investors will have been well prepared.
Trade factors
On the trade front, Argentina's agriculture minister, Norberto Yauhar, said over the weekend that China had approved imports from the South American country of three further strains of genetically modified soybeans and one of corn.
However, the impact of that announcement was offset by a threat by farmers to strike, ie stop selling grains, with an announcement expected on Tuesday.
Also over the weekend, China revealed a rise to 5.1m tonnes in soybean imports last month, from 3.98m tonnes in April, although June is expected to be a bigger month, with some forecasting a figure above 7m tonnes.
The impact of that announcement was muted by Chinese markets' closure for a holiday, and with some concerns over the overall data, which showed overall imports down 0.3%, year on year, in May, with exports growing by only 1%.
'Will not be real impressive'
The impact in Chicago was in corn to see the December contract tumble 1.1% to $5.52 ½ a bushel as of 09:05 UK time (03:05 Chicago time) with the old crop July lot down 0.7% at $6.61 ½ a bushel.
For soybeans, the new crop November lot eased 0.4% to $13.25 ¼ a bushel, while the old crop July lot shedding 0.4% to $15.22 ¼ a bushel.
Where there was headway was in, Minneapolis-traded, spring wheat, which added 0.1% to $8.20 ½ a bushel for July delivery, with the weekend bringing more rain to plague sowings in North Dakota, the top US spring-wheat growing state.
Brian Henry at Benson Quinn Commodities said that in Monday's US crop progress data "the trade is looking for 90% completion on spring wheat seeding. I don't see it.
"Going into Monday afternoon, the trade will keep focus on the pace of planting, which isn't going to be real impressive."
'Merits attention'
As for winter wheat, there are some weather-related concerns here too, most recently focused on whether excessive rains will damage yields of soft red varieties, as grown in the Midwest (and traded in Chicago).
"There hasn't been much concern about rain-related quality issues to this point, but it merits attention," Mr Henry said.
"The trade expects hard red winter wheat conditions to show improvement and soft red winter wheat conditions to show a slight decline" in the USDA crop progress report.
Still, with the hard red winter wheat seen improving a tad, and some concerns still over the impact on US wheat exports of the discovery of unapproved genetically modified plants in Oregon, Chicago's July contract fell 0.5% to $6.93 a bushel.
Technically, the contract's fall below $7.00 a bushel in the last session, and further below major moving averages, did not help either.
Mixed palm data
Elsewhere, Kuala Lumpur palm oil was up 2 ringgit at 2,459 ringgit a tonne for August delivery as investors balanced disappointing May data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board with an uptick in Malaysian exports so far this month.
The MPOB said that Malaysian palm oil stocks fell last month, to a one-year low of 1.82m tonnes. But that was not as big a decline as investors had expected, to 1.76m tonnes.
While production did not experience as large a seasonal recovery as forecast, exports dropped further from April than the market had expected.
However, cargo surveyor Intertek eased concerns by estimating Malaysian shipments so far this month up 10.3%.
'Stuck in the downtrend'
In New York, soft commodities struggled for gains too, although this was not such a surprise when the Brazilian real, a key influence on prices for ags in which the country is a major player (eg arabica coffee, orange juice, sugar), made a weak start, easing 0.3% against the dollar.
"Fundamentally, the outlook for sugar remain bearish as global excess weighs and weakening Brazilian real translates lower prices in US dollar," Phillip Futures' Joyce Liu said.
"Appreciation in Brazilian real is unlikely in the short term as Standard &Poor's had just revised Brazil's long-term sovereign debt ratings outlook from stable to negative."
Raw sugar for July was flat at 16.43 cents a pound.
"Technically, sugar prices are still stuck in the downtrend with some signs of abating but no sign of reversal," Ms Liu said.
Arabica coffee fell 0.6% to 126.20 cents a pound, getting perilously near three-year lows.
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