SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed higher on reports from private analysts that Brazil will use sugar to produce ethanol and use less to produce sugar. The same service said that more pests are hurting the next production. The market closed strong and could work higher in the short term, but is expected to find plenty of selling on the rally. Traders remain bearish on ideas of big supplies, especially from Brazil. Traders in Brazil expect big production as the weather is good. Demand is said to be strong from North Africa and the Middle East. ICE said that a Sugar storage facility in Paranagua, Brazil, was damaged by fire this week and that deliveries could be affected.
Overnight News: Showers are expected in Brazil, mostly in the south and southwest. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1770 and 1820 October. Support is at 1700, 1680, and 1665 October, and resistance is at 1760, 1790, and 1820 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 495.00 October. Support is at 480.00, 472.00, and 469.00 October, and resistance is at 487.00, 491.00, and 494.00 October.
COTTON
General Comments: Futures were lower again on what appeared to be long liquidation from speculators and perhaps some farm selling. Ideas of better weather in production areas were once again negative for prices. Some storms are moving through western Texas and conditions there are improving. Good weather is being reported in the Delta and Southeast as well. The weather has improved, and looks to improve conditions generally through the rest of the week. Scattered showers are forecast for the Delta and Southeast, and wetter and warm weather is expected in Texas. Weather for Cotton appears good in India, Pakistan, and China. It is possible that futures made at least a short term high on Friday.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see some showers this weekend. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will get showers today, and then dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA spot price is now 82.49 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.550 million bales, from 0.545 million yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 69,800 bales this year and 81,400 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 1,200 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 86.50, 85.60, and 84.75 October, with resistance of 88.20, 89.60, and 90.10 October.
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed lower again on forecasts for more showers into next week. Futures have been working generally lower as showers have been seen and conditions are said to have improved in almost the entire state. Ideas are that the better precipitation will help trees fight the greening disease. Traders are wrestling with more reports of losses from greening disease on the one side and beneficial rains that have hit the state on the other. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item and will be for several years. Temperatures are warm in the state, but there are showers reported somewhere in the state every day now. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 141.00, 133.00, and 130.00 July. Support is at 139.00, 137.50, and 136.00 July, with resistance at 145.00, 150.00, and 154.00 July.
COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher in reaction to news from Brazil about the government support for producers. Many think it will be enough to keep Coffee in warehouses and off the market. Interest has left the market in many ways, as many feel prices are too low to sell short again, but there are few who see any reasons to buy for the longer term. Arabica cash markets remain quiet right now and Robusta selling interest has become less, as well. Most sellers, including Brazil, are quiet and are waiting for futures to move higher. Buyers are interested on cheap differentials, and might start to force the issue if prices hold and start to move higher in the short term. Brazil weather is forecast to show dry conditions, but no cold weather. There are some forecasts for cold weather to develop in Brazil early next week, but so far the market is not concerned. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil. Central America crops are seeing good rains now. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are little changed today and are about 2.747 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 117.32 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry weather except for some showers in the southwest. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, with some big rains possible in central and southern Mexico and northern Central America. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 554 delivery notices were posted against July today and that total deliveries for the month are now 554 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 122.00, 119.00, and 116.00 September, and resistance is at 126.00, 127.00, and 129.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1835 and 1900 September. Support is at 1765, 1730, and 1705 September, and resistance is at 1800, 1850, and 1890 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 147.00, 144.00, and 140.00 September, and resistance is at 151.00, 155.00, and 159.00 September.
COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed slightly higher in consolidation trading. There was not a lot of news for the market, and price action reflected this. Ideas of weak demand after the recent big rally kept some selling interest around. The weather is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains. The mid crop harvest is about over, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.047 million bags. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are 120 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2200, 2165, and 2140 September, with resistance at 2250, 2280, and 2300 September. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1380 and 1270 September. Support is at 1430, 1360, and 1320 September, with resistance at 1470, 1490, and 1520 September.
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