FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower in consolidation trading. Futures have been working generally lower since the USDA crop reports last week as showers have been seen and conditions are said to have improved in almost the entire state. USDA lowered production of Oranges in Florida, but decreased production had been expected. Traders are wrestling with more reports of losses from greening disease on the one side and beneficial rains that have hit the state on the other. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item and will be for several years. Temperatures are warm in the state, but there are showers reported somewhere in the state every day now. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 141.00, 133.00, and 130.00 July. Support is at 145.00, 144.00, and 139.00 July, with resistance at 150.00, 154.00, and 156.00 July.
COTTON
General Comments: Futures were lower on what appeared to be long liquidation from speculators and perhaps some farm selling. Ideas of better weather in production areas were negative for prices. Traders talk of reduced production potential due to the poor weather seen until recently in the Delta and Southeast and still reported in parts of Texas. Trends are up. Ideas of good weather for US crops are still around. The weather has improved, but it is still too dry in Texas and drier weather is needed for the Delta and Southeast. Scattered showers are forecast for the Delta and Southeast, and wetter and warm weather is expected in Texas. Weather for Cotton appears good in India, Pakistan, and China. It is possible that futures made at least a short term high on Friday.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see some showers this week. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will get showers today and tomorrow, then dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA spot price is now 84.42 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.543 million bales, from 0.539 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 86.75, 85.60, and 84.75 October, with resistance of 90.10, 90.50, and 91.40 October.
COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were mostly a little lower in quiet trading. Interest has left the market in many ways, as many feel prices are too low to sell short again, but there are few who see any reasons to buy for the longer term. Arabica cash markets remain quiet right now and roasters in the US are showing little interest in buying. There is talk of increasing offers of Robusta from producers as they apparently did not sell when prices were much higher. Most sellers, including Brazil, are quiet and are waiting for futures to move higher. Buyers are interested on cheap differentials. Brazil weather is forecast to show dry conditions, but no cold weather. There are some forecasts for cold weather to develop in Brazil at the end of this week. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil. Central America crops are seeing good rains now. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are little changed today and are about 2.746 million bags. GCA stocks are 5.147 million bags, from 4.867 million last month. The ICO composite price is now 116.04 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry weather except for some showers in the southwest. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, with some big rains possible in central and southern Mexico and northern Central America. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 116.00 July. Support is at 121.00, 119.00, and 116.00 July, and resistance is at 125.00, 127.00, and 130.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1765 July. Support is at 1700, 1680, and 1650 July, and resistance is at 1750, 1780, and 1810 July. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 147.00, 144.00, and 140.00 September, and resistance is at 151.00, 155.00, and 159.00 September.
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed higher on what appeared to be follow through short covering from speculators. The market has made a bottom and is now reaching for its targets in the recovery. Everyone talks about the big supplies, but reports of renewed demand interest helped rally the market again yesterday. July was higher as short speculators start to pull out of positions before the contract stops trading at the end of the month. There was no other real news for the market. Traders remain bearish on ideas of big supplies, especially from Brazil. Traders in Brazil expect big production as the weather is good. However, some say that the market has traded on big supplies for a long time now and deserves to rally for at least the short term. Demand is said to be strong from North Africa and the Middle East.
Overnight News: Showers are expected in Brazil, mostly in the south ad southwest. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1730 October. Support is at 1680, 1665, and 1650 October, and resistance is at 1730, 1760, and 1790 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 495.00 October. Support is at 477.00, 472.00, and 469.00 October, and resistance is at 487.00, 491.00, and 494.00 October.
COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower on what appeared to be a lot of follow through speculative selling. There was not a lot of news for the market, and price action reflected this. Ideas of weak demand after the recent big rally kept some selling interest around. The weather is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains. The mid crop harvest is moving to completion, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.067 million bags. ICE said that 4 delivery noticies were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are 68 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2200, 2165, and 2140 September, with resistance at 2250, 2280, and 2300 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1380 and 1270 September. Support is at 1430, 1360, and 1320 September, with resistance at 1520, 1570, and 1600 September.
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