IS GLOBAL GROWTH PEAKING MID-YEAR?

By Rohan Clarke

OECD leading indicators were released Monday (here) and are signalling that global growth remains on the front foot – though it’s likely to be peaking by mid-year:

In the US, growth was heading towards a cyclical high relative to trend, but again looks likely to peak over the next three months:

Interestingly growth out of China looks to be regaining some momentum:

While in the Euro area, growth has already peaked and is likely to struggle on in the face of the ECB interest rate rise.

Finally, as a counterpoint to the OECD’s data, following is the latest JPMorgan Manufacturing PMI (from Markit here) that hints at the same sort of conclusion – that the global growth rate has peaked but remains in expansion mode.

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