Thursday, April 14, 2011

Is gold price in a bubble?

By Addison Wiggin

Precious metals are proving resilient after yesterday’s beat-down. Gold is back up to $1,461. Silver spent a few nanoseconds below $40 yesterday and as of this writing sits smartly at $40.56.

With regular runs at historic highs, it’s no longer cranky gold bugs and dollar bears doing their share of gold price forecasting.

Analysts for the proper, if stodgy, British bank Standard Chartered announced yesterday they are expecting gold to reach $2,107 an ounce by 2014.

What’s more, they say, “our modeling suggests a possible ‘super-bull’ scenario,” based on a “powerful relationship” between per capita income in Asian emerging markets and the gold price.

Standard Chartered estimates that per capita income in China and India will reach 30% of the US level over the next 20 years.

On that basis, the bank sees “gold prices rallying up to $4,869 per ounce by 2020, should current relationships between Asian demand and gold persist.”

Standard Chartered wouldn’t find much argument from US Global Investors chief and Vancouver alum Frank Holmes, who was the lunchtime keynote presenter here in Zurich today at the European Gold Forum.

For starters, he furnished visual evidence to back up Marc Faber’s claim in this space on Monday that gold is not in a bubble.


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