Worsening US winter wheat faces 'uphill struggle'

by Agrimoney.com

America's hard red winter wheat crop faces an "uphill struggle", the Canadian Wheat Board said, as data showed the crop had continued to deteriorate through lack of moisture and freeze damage.

An official US report showed the proportion of the crop in Kansas, the main growing state, rated in "good" or "excellent" condition declined by two points to 25% in February. A year ago, the figure was 53%.

"The lack of moisture and snow cover this winter has many farmers concerned for their winter wheat crop as… spring draws near," the joint briefing from state and federal officials said.

Besides the direct impact of a lack of moisture, a dearth of snowfall has also exposed crops to temperatures which were below average for the month, hitting -23 Fahrenheit (-31 Celsius) at one weather station.

One quarter of Kansas seedlings were seen as suffering some level of freeze damage.

'Drought despite blizzard' 

In Oklahoma, America's third biggest winter wheat state, "drought continues despite blizzard", officials said, with some 80% of soil rated has being short or very short of moisture.

Only 19% of winter wheat was seen as in good or excellent condition, down two points on the month, and from a 60% figure a year ago.

Nebraska, a mid-ranking growing state, also witnessed a decline in the proportion of winter wheat in the top growing bands, by one point to 40%.

However, second-ranked Texas saw improvement, by five points, albeit to a modest 18% good or excellent, compared with 46% a year before.

'Excessive moisture' 

The data came as the CWB rated America's hard red winter wheat crop, which typically accounts for more than 40% of the total US wheat production, as one of the major question marks hanging over the world wheat harvest.

"The US hard red winter wheat crop faces an uphill struggle towards recovery," the board, the world's biggest barley and wheat marketer, said.

China's drought-hampered winter wheat, and the "excessive moisture" which threatens spring sowings in Canada, were also rated significant threats.

Western Canada, the country's main growing district, "has experienced an inordinate amount of moisture over the last eight months", the board said.

Global deficit 

The comments came in a follow-up report to a presentation on Monday at which the CWB forecast that the world would record a second successive shortfall in wheat production in 2011-12.

While world consumption will fall by 5m tonnes to 660m tonnes - reflecting the likelihood of less feed grain than in 2010-11, when damp caused huge downgrades in Australia and Canada – it will still outpace output, up 7m tonnes at 653.5m tonnes.

Farmers selling through the board can expect to receive up to 50% more for their wheat in 2011-12 than 2010-11, up to Can$365 a tonne, initial estimates showed, a reflecting in part of weak prices a year ago.

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