Tsunami risk to Japan's self-sufficiency in rice

by Agrimoney.com

Soil damage caused by the tsunami may cost Japan its prized self-sufficiency in rice, a leading farm academic has said, adding his voice to those forecasting that the disaster will increase the country's crop imports.

The Tohuku region of northern Japan, which bore the brunt of the tsunami, may see its predominance in national rice production threatened if salt water left by the disaster caused significant fertility loss to land, grain economist Mark Welch said.

Salt water damage to land following tsunamis is a widely-recognised threat, by bodies including the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation, which rates rice as a crop with medium-tolerance to salt, less than that of barley and cotton.

"Japan is self-sufficient in rice production but this capability may be threatened if sea water from the tsunami contaminated farm land," Mr Welch said.

Tohoku accounted for 26% of Japan's rice area last year, according to Japanese farm ministry data, with Kanto to the south, which includes Tokyo, and which suffered some tsunami damage, accounting for a further 19%.

Iconic crop

Japanese, while eating on average half as much rice as they did 50 years ago, still see the grain as a part of the national culture, prizing the sticky quality of home-grown grain, which is also used for making the alcoholic drink sake.

The country has encouraged self-sufficiency in rice, even while importing hefty quantities of other grains and, through subsidies, kept production near levels of consumption.

While the country typically imports some 700,000 tonnes of rice a year, this is often down merely to meeting World Trade Organisation requirements, imposed in recognition of the subsidy regime.

'Increase in imports' 

Mr Welch's comments came he warned that Japanese farming "may face long-term impacts" from the earthquake and tsunami.

Breakdown of Japan's rice-growing regions, 2010 - area, and % of total Tohoku: 419,000 hectares, 26% Kanto Tosan: 302,000 hectares, 19% Hokuriku (NW Chubu): 211,000 hectares, 13% Kyushu: 190,000 hectares, 12% Chugoku: 118,000 hectares, 7% Hokkaido: 115,000 hectares, 7% Kinki: 111,000 hectares, 7% Tokai (south Chubu): 104,000 hectares, 6% Shikoku: 58,000 hectares, 4% Data: MAFF, Tamu. Rounding takes total of percentages to 101%

"Even if the major ports are still functioning, inland transportation systems are seriously damaged," Mr Welch, at Texas-based agricultural university Tamu said.

"The net effect of the disaster on the grain trade may be an increase in commodity imports to replace domestic production."

A report from US Department of Agriculture attaches in Tokyo released late on Wednesday, but drawn up before the earthquake, had forecast Japan's corn imports – the world's biggest - holding steady  at around 16m tonnes in both 2010-11 and 2011-12.

While smaller livestock herds are decreasing use in fodder, "the general trend in recent years is that increases in food corn imports have been compensating for declines in feed corn imports", the attaches said.

"The driving force in food corn demand comes from the beverage sector, particularly for high fructose corn syrup used in low alcoholic drinks like happoshu [a light beer] and other alcoholic beverages.

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