Brazil rains risk to both corn sowing and soybeans

by Agrimoney.com

It isn't just Brazil's record soybean harvest which is threatened by heavy rains, but follow-on corn too, for which sowings are running at half the pace of last year, a leading analyst said.

Brazil's soybean harvest has been delayed such that in Mato Grosso, which produces nearly 30% of the national crop, only 28% had been harvested as of the end of last month, compared with more than half a year before.

"In February, it usually rains. But some places are getting twice normal levels," Michael Cordonnier, at Soybean and Corn Advisor, told Agrimoney.com.

"Farmers are reporting that they can harvest only a few hours per day and when they can harvest, they are being forced to harvest soybeans at a very high moisture content, some as high as 30% moisture."

In some areas growers were reporting "shrivelled and mouldy soybeans, and in some extreme cases, losses as high as 30%."

Corn impact 

The rains have taken the shine off Brazilian hopes for soybean production in 2010-11, which Dr Cordonnier pegged at 70.5m tonnes – still an all-time high, but below many other forecasts.

And they have raised questions too over corn, which many farmers plant directly behind soybeans for a second, or so-called "safrinha", crop – responsible for some 40% of Brazil's total production of the grain.

The window for sowings has already closed in Mato Grosso with less than half sowings completed, and a further week or so before farmers are likely to give up.

"It might be 60% or more like 55%, by now, but it should be 95%," Dr Cordonnier said, adding that heavy rains were slowing progress in Parana too, although this state has a later planting window.

"This matters in that some 40% of Brazilian corn is grown as a double crop, and 40% of that is growth in Mato Grosso and 40% in Parana."

Indeed, the setbacks could feed through into higher prices. "With a tight balance sheet, he world cannot afford any disappointment in any crop - corn soybeans, wheat – anywhere," he said.

'Losing his mind' 

His comments were backed by consultant Kory Melby who said that a 28,000-hectare farm visited in Mato Grosso had completed 30% of the harvest, compared with 70% a year ago.

"Too much rain - the [manager] was losing his mind yesterday. They are already 9,000 hectares behind and can't go."

The farm was intending to plant safrinha corn until March 5, Mr Melby said, adding that "others will plant later, but usually burns up".

Research from the Foundation do Rio Verde had found that corn planted after February 25  lost 4 bushels an acre in yield per day.

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