It is too early for Brazilian farmers to write-off the threat of setbacks from a late soybean planting season, even if rains have put them on course for a record harvest of the oilseed.
The US Department of Agriculture lifted by 1.0m tonnes to an all-time high of 68.5m tonnes its forecast for Brazil's soybean production in 2010-11, after rainfall boosted a crop whose sowings were delayed by up to three weeks by dry weather last year.
"The weather situation across Brazil has eased earlier concerns about dryness," the USDA said.
Brazil's improved prospects contrast with those of neighbouring Argentina, where rains last month arrived too late to prevent crop damage.
"About 40% of the early-planted soy was flowering during the drought conditions in December and early January, which will likely reduce potential yield," the department said, cutting its forecast for Argentina's soybean crop by 1.0m tonnes.
The corn crop was downgraded by 1.5m tonnes.
Rainfall question
However, Brazilian farmers could still suffer a delayed hangover from the late soybean sowings if so-called "safrinha" crops, largely cotton and corn, which are planted immediately the oilseed's harvest encounter adverse weather.
"Both safrinha cotton and corn in the central-west region are slightly behind with regard to their planting window because of the late start to soy planting in September," USDA analyst William Baker said.
"Due to the late planting of the safrinha cotton crop, yield will be especially dependent on the amount of rainfall received during the remainder of the summer."
Currently, Brazil appears on course for total cotton output of 8.2m bales, although the country is becoming increasingly reliant on the safrinha crop, which can account for 40-45% of output of the fibre on some farms.
The USDA made the comments as it released the February edition of its influential Wasde report, which made only minor changes to soybeans estimates – outside South America – nor to cotton forecasts.
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