Thursday, May 30, 2013

Dario per Franca

di Dario Fo

dario_fo_franca_rame.jpg

di Dario Fo

"Franca ed io abbiamo scritto quasi sempre i testi del nostro teatro insieme. Io mi prendevo l’onere di mettere giù la trama quindi gliela illustravo e lei proponeva le varianti, spesso li recitavamo a soggetto, all’improvvisa, come si dice... Questo era il metodo preferito ma non sempre funzionava. Si discuteva anche ferocemente, si buttava tutto all’aria e si ricominciava da capo. In verità mi trovavo a dover riscrivere di nuovo il testo da solo. Poi lo si discuteva con più calma e si giungeva ad una versione che funzionasse e che andasse bene a tutt’e due.
Anche Franca è stata l’autrice unica di alcuni testi. Ci sono opere, come per esempio “Parliamo di donne”, che furono stese da lei completamente a mia insaputa. Quando mi ha dato da leggere questa commedia già ultimata sono rimasto un po’ perplesso... e seccato! Ma come ti permetti?!? No, scherzavo...
Io ho proposto qualche variante ma di fatto si trattava di un’opera del tutto personale.
Pochi lo sanno ma la gran parte degli spettacoli che trattavano di questioni prettamente femminili è stata Franca ad averli scritti, elaborati e poi li ha recitati al completo spesso anche da sola. E io mi sono trovato a collaborare solo per la messa in scena.
Vi dirò di più: testi quali Mistero Buffo e Morte Accidentale di un Anarchico - che io avevo realizzato come autore unico - hanno avuto grande successo anche all’estero con centinaia di allestimenti dall’America all’Oriente, per non parlare dell’Europa.
Ma dei nostri lavori quello che ha battuto tutti i record di messa in scena è Coppia Aperta, Quasi Spalancata che è stato replicato con diverse regie per più di 700 edizioni nel mondo. Ebbene l’autrice unica di questo testo è Franca. L’ho sempre tenuto nascosto!
C’è in particolare un lavoro o meglio, un monologo, che Franca ha recitato solo qualche volta quest’anno, e di cui bisogna che io vi parli perché è fortemente pertinente alla situazione a dir poco drammatica che io sto in questi giorni vivendo.
Da tempo Franca aveva scoperto l’esistenza di alcuni testi apocrifi dell’Antico Testamento nei quali la Genesi è raccontata in termini e linguaggio molto diversi da quelli cosiddetti canonici.
Attenti, non sto parlando dei Vangeli apocrifi, ma dell’Antico Testamento... Apocrifo!
Ebbene da uno di questi testi Franca ha tratto un racconto che vi voglio far conoscere, quasi in anteprima. Eccovelo!
Siamo nel Paradiso terrestre. Dio ha creato alberi, fiumi, foreste animali e anche l’uomo. O meglio il primo essere umano ad essere forgiato non è Adamo ma Eva, la femmina! Che viene al mondo non tratta dalla costola d’Adamo ma modellata dal Creatore in un’argilla fine e delicata. Un pezzo unico, poi le dà la vita e la parola. Il tutto “prima” di creare Adamo; tant’è che girando qua e là nel paradiso Eva si lamenta che... della sua razza si ritrovi ad essere l’unica, mentre tutti gli altri animali si trovano già accoppiati e addirittura in branco. Ma poi eccola incontrare finalmente il suo “maschio”, Adamo, che la guarda preoccupato e sospettoso. Eva vuol provocarlo e inizia intorno a lui una strana danza fatta di salti, capriole e grida da selvatica... quasi un gioco che Adamo non apprezza, anzi prova timore per come agisce quella creatura... al punto che fugge nella foresta a nascondersi e sparisce; ma viene il momento in cui il Creatore vuole parlare ad entrambe le sue creature, umane. Manda un Arcangelo a cercarli. Quello li trova e poi li accompagna dinnanzi a Dio in persona.
L’Eterno li osserva e poi si compiace: “Mica male! mi siete riusciti... E dire che non ero neanche in giornata... ! Voi non lo sapete perché ancora non ve l’ho detto ma entrambi siete i proprietari assoluti di questo Eden! E sta a voi decidere cosa farne e come viverci. Ecco la chiave. E gliela getta. Vedete, qui ci sono due alberi magnifici (e li indica), uno – quello di sinistra – dà frutti copiosi e dal sapore cangiante. Questi frutti, se li mangiate, faranno di voi due esseri eterni. Sì, mi rendo conto che ho pronunciato una parola che per voi non ha significato: eternità... Significa che avrete la stessa proprietà che hanno gli angeli e gli arcangeli, vivrete per sempre, appunto in eterno! A differenza degli altri animali non avrete prole, perché, essendo eterni, che interesse avreste di riprodurvi e generare uomini e donne come voi, della vostra razza? L’altro albero invece produce semplici mele, nutrienti e di buon sapore. Ma attenti a voi, non vi consiglio di cibarvene! E sapete perché? Perché non creano l’eternità... ma in compenso, devo essere sincero, grazie a loro scoprirete la conoscenza, la sapienza e anche il dubbio.
Ancora vi indurranno a creare a vostra volta strumenti di lavoro e perfino macchine come la ruota e il mulino a vento e ad acqua. No, non ho tempo di spiegarvi come si faccia, arrangiatevi da voi. ... tutto quello che scoprirete; e ancora queste mele, mangiandole, vi produrranno il desiderio di abbracciarvi l’un l’altro e di amarvi... non solo, ma grazie a quell’amplesso, vi riuscirà di far nascere nuove creature come voi e popolare questo mondo. Però attenti, alla fine ognuno di voi morirà e tornerà ad essere polvere e fango. Gli stessi da cui siete nati.
Pensateci con calma, mi darete la risposta fra qualche giorno. Addio.
”
“No. Non c’è bisogno di attendere, Padre Nostro! – grida subito Eva – Per quanto mi riguarda io ho già deciso, personalmente scelgo il secondo albero, quello delle mele. S devo essere sincera, Dio non offenderti, a me dell’eternità non interessa più di tanto, invece l’idea di conoscere, sapere, aver dubbi, mi gusta assai! Non parliamo poi del fatto di potermi abbracciare a questo maschio che mi hai regalato. Mi piace!!! Da subito ho sentito il suo richiamo e mi è venuto un gran desiderio di cingermi, oh che bella parola ho scoperto cingermi!, cingermi con lui e farci... come si dice?! Ah, farci l’amore! So già che questo amplesso sarà la fine del mondo! E ti dirò che, appresso, il fatto che mi toccherà morire davanti a tutto quello che ci offri in cambio: la possibilità di scoprire e conoscere vivendo... mi va bene anche quello. Pur di avere conoscenza, coscienza, dubbi e provare amore... ben venga anche la morte!”
Il Padreterno è deluso e irato quindi si rivolge ad Adamo e gli chiede con durezza: “E tu? ...che decisione avresti preso? Parlo con te, Adamo sveglia! Preferisci l’eterno o l’amore col principio e la fine?” E Adamo quasi sottovoce risponde: “ Ho qualche dubbio ma sono molto curioso di scoprire questo mistero dell’amore anche se poi c’è la fine"." Dario Fo

See the original article >>

Butterflies at the Altar - Arson at the Fed

by Market Anthropology

We continue to find ourselves walking in a strange parallel universe exploring the flip side of the long dollar / short euro thesis and wondering if a material pivot lower in the dollar is upon us. Could it just be nerves before a major breakout in the dollar materializes? Perhaps. We have watched these forces come together for some time - butterflies at the altar would be nothing new with these prospective nuptials. And while it has been quite good for us to have a strong read on the dollar and the euro's next move and see the kinetic potential throughout the commodity and currency markets - we recognize cracks forming in the relative strength of the dollar and conversely pressure building within the euro. We also have watched (actually foresaw) as corners of the commodity market - such as the gold miners relative to gold itself - have made an important turn higher this week.  

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Further buttressing the case against the dollar - and as we have noted over the past few weeks - silver appeared coiled with underlying upside momentum. In perhaps a first since its large pivot lower in May 2011, the euro's relative strength to silver may be result of a correlation divergence. The conviction of the jury is still out, but if we played devil's advocate to the asset relationship - that's how we would see it. 
The US dollar index comparative that we have utilized quite closely has provided an excellent road map of the dollar's potential and pivots - and a contrasting backdrop to the last time the index broke aggressively higher in 1997. What we have recently seen and pointed out is a notable divergence in the relative strength of the index as it consolidated and broke higher over the past several weeks. In terms of expectations of performance of trend - it's come up short.

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You will often find with useful comparative wave or cycle analysis the assets acutely correlate coming through a major pivot structure and volatility event - then closely trend coming out, before eventually diverging as either the analog or current market walks outside of what would be characterized as normal distribution. I have compared it in the past to lobbing a rock into a pond, whereas, the geometry of the disturbed surface will replicate with great congruency at the point of entry and dissipate as you move further away from the epicenter of disturbance. Granted, when the comparison is of the same asset you may also encounter and provide similar kinetic intermarket turbulences at the respective pivots. What we may be witnessing with the dollar - and as I pointed to last week is the trend stalling out and another trip lower through the range.

"With only a few sessions remaining in May - the US dollar index is marginally holding above it monthly breakout ~ 83.50. As we see it, the risk here for dollar bulls and precious metals bears (both of which we have helped chair the Departments since April of 2011) - is the dollar becomes exhausted and similar to 1994 takes another trip lower through the range. All things considered - we still like the dollar, but remain vigilant and open to an audible lower for a spell." Between Mosquitos & Cicadas

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Just as the dollar showed significant positive "pressures" in early February (as expressed in the relative strength of the move), the euro is now potentially sitting on similar forces.

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What's also interesting here and potentially worthy of extrapolating a bit of past drama - is similar to the failed breakout drive by the dollar in 1994 - the Treasury market soon followed lower with prejudice when the Fed began raising interest rates. Today, the catalyst for the Treasury market blaze appears to be arson as well; motivated by a Fed perhaps uneasy at the pace and character of risk appetites and boxed in by greater transparency and somewhat conflicting data. I suppose the strange silver lining is a little inflation caused by a slouching dollar here wouldn't exactly be the worst thing in the Fed's eyes as inflation data continues to surprise to the downside.

Strange bedfellows indeed - although par for this marriage.

See the original article >>

Death of the Dollar

By tothetick

We’ve all done it, haven’t we? Chucked something in the wash and turned it on too high, only to see it pop out at the end of the cycle and it ends up the size of your hamster. Well, Obama has been doing the same. Except this time it’s not your winter woollies that he’s shrinking, it’s the greenback.

The US currency is shrinking as a percentage of world currency today according to the International Monetary Fund. It’s still in pole position for the moment, but business transactions are showing that companies around the world are today ready and willing to make the move to do business in other currencies.

The US Dollar has long been the world’s number one denomination in world currency supply. It represents 62% of total holdings in foreign exchange in central banks around the world. But, it is in for a tough race from up-and-coming strong currencies. The Japanese Yen and the Chinese Yuan are both giving the Americans a good run for their money. The Swiss franc is too (surprisingly).  There is $6 trillion in foreign exchange holdings around the world at any given time, on average and the US Dollar represents almost two-thirds of that.

The fact that Brazil and China have also just signed a currency-swap deal worth something to the tune of $30 billion stands as living proof that the dollar may be further on the wane. China will exceed all expectations in the future as the world’s largest economy. The US will be overtaken. The Chinese currency will one day overtake the Dollar too. Has to be!

Although, it’s not quite there for the moment. China is not near being the world’s reserve currency yet. In order to be the world’s reserve currency there would be the need to produce enormous quantities of what the world wants. China has got that one off pat already. Then, countries holding the reserve currency would need to be able to spend that currency elsewhere in other countries or find a place to put it while waiting to do so. World capital markets are currently in dollars (40%), which means that there would be no possibility of using the Chinese currency. But, that’s only a matter of time. Some are predicting this will happen pretty soon.

The Federal Reserve has come in for some strong criticism over the unconventional Quantitative Easing methods that have resulted in 3 trillion spanking new dollars rolling of the printing presses. This has certainly brought about some degree of worry around the world that the dollar is not quite as safe as it might have been thought to be in the past. Is the world worrying that the dollar is not as safe a bet as it used to be in world domination. Are central banks worried that it will shrink in the wash and the colors will run?

Some are predicting that the dollar will shrink rapidly over the next two years and it will lose its top place as the world’s reserve currency by 2015. In the 1950s the dollar was 90% of total foreign currency holdings around the world. The dollar has definitely lost out to other currencies that are stronger. If there is a continued move and the dollar shrinks, then the resulting catastrophe that will ensue will have a spiral effect on the already enormous US budget deficit (over $1 trillion a year on average).

The only reason the Federal Reserve has been in a position to print more money recently is simply because they are in the strong position to be able to do so as the world’s leading reserve currency. If that changes, then the Americans won’t have the possibility of just hitting the button and setting the printing presses rolling. That means the US will be in no other position than to end up having to pay their debt back.

The US economy and the market are starting to show signs of recovery. Signs. It’s not sustained, hope as they might. If the dollar loses its attraction, then it won’t be used as the international reserve currency. Businesses will start using another currency and the dollar will lose out further still.

Some experts are saying that the problems of the dollar are like a time-bomb ready to explode. Ultimately, it will bring about the death of the dollar. As we stand on and watch, huddled around the coffin as it is lowered into the ground, we know it’s all too late. The flowers have been sent and the Stars and Stripes has been played in recognition of loyal service for the nation.

The QE methods are nothing more than aiding and abetting the already problematic situation of the greenback. We might look back in years to come and reminisce over whether it was the right (long-term) solution to use QE, whether printing bucks sent the greenback to an early grave, or whether it just reached the end of its life and croaked peacefully without making too much noise.

But, criticism of and worry over the dollar and its longevity have been hot topics for years now. The US dollar is a fiat currency that can easily lose status, deriving its value from government regulation and law. But, then again, so is the Euro. So, people living in Europe shouldn’t start throwing stones…they live in glass houses too…and that’s before they start.

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Oil fields under olive groves offer Italy economic boost: energy

By Alessandra Migliaccio

Underneath the groves that make southern Italy the world’s second-largest olive oil producer, geologists have found a more lucrative liquid: Europe’s biggest onshore crude oil fields.

Basilicata, a mountainous, sparsely populated province that sits in the arch of Italy’s boot, holds more than 1 billion barrels, offering the country a weapon to fight a two-year recession. Rome-based Eni SpA and France’s Total SA plan to double production raising Italy’s output to almost 200,000 barrels a day, making the country Europe’s third-largest oil producer behind the U.K. and Norway.

Since the fields started production in the 1990s, their development has been held back by environmental campaigns and bureaucratic delays. Those impediments are falling away, analyst Carlo Stagnaro said, because the priority for Italy’s government is kick starting an economy that’s shrunk for six straight quarters and where more than 35% of young people are unemployed.

“This is a giant field, so there’s huge potential here,” Claudio Descalzi, Eni’s head of exploration and production and president of Italy’s Oil and Mining Industry Association said in an interview. Italy spends as much as 60 billion euros ($78 billion) on oil and boosting production can save about 5 billion euros and create around 20,000 jobs, he said.

The Italian government’s 2012 national energy strategy sets increased oil and gas production as one of its goals. Former Prime Minister Mario Monti gave Total the green light for its new Tempa Rossa field in Basilicata last year, and Eni and local authorities are in talks to increase production in the region’s Val d’Agri.

Longest Recession

Italy, which is combating its longest recession in more than two decades, hasn’t been an oil rich country. It produces about 101,000 barrels a day, about 7% of total consumption, mostly from Basilicata with the addition of some onshore and offshore wells in Sicily and parts of central and northern Italy, according to 2012 statistics from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

“Talk of freedom from energy dependence is an overstatement, but increasing production can certainly be an opportunity for Italy,” said Stagnaro, head of research at Instituto Bruno Leoni, which studies the Italian economy. “The real point for Eni is whether, after respecting all the laws and health and environmental requirements, the gain is worth the costs, if so then they need to forge ahead.”

Drilling Moratoriums

Environmentalists and citizens’ associations have periodically pushed local authorities to declare moratoriums on further drilling and lobbying contributed to the creation of a national park in the Val d’Agri in 2007 which further hampered drilling. There are 13 wells within the park’s territory, all sunk before 2007, according to Eni.

“We don’t want charity, we want investments in new energy sources and sustainable development,” said Marco De Biasi, head of the local branch of environmental protection agency Legambiente, referring to the 10% in royalties that Eni pays to the national and local governments. He said his group will oppose any increase in output past what has already been agreed.

Eni and partner Royal Dutch Shell Plc produce 85,000 barrels of oil per day in Basilicata and have permission to raise that to 104,000 barrels a day in the Val d’Agri, Eni’s head of southern Italy Ruggero Gheller said in an interview. Shell also owns the nearby Tempa Rossa field along with France’s Total SA and Japan’s Mitsui & Co. which the companies say will pump 50,000 barrels a day by 2016.

Eni shares dropped 1.4% to close at 17.84 euros in Rome today.

Total Production

Once all that oil starts flowing, Italy’s total production will be boosted to about 170,000 barrels a day, a 68% increase compared with 2012.

Eni is in talks with local authorities to increase output by another 25,000 barrels a day, and Descalzi says production could be boosted by a further 20,000 in the future. That would more than double current output making Italy Europe’s third- biggest producer, surpassing Denmark which pumped 202,000 barrels a day in 2012, according to the EIA. While Denmark’s production had been declining since 2004, Italy’s has been on the rise since 2009, according to the EIA.

In some respects, Basilicata has been oil country since the Middle Ages.

Small amounts of shiny oil emerge from a natural spring near Viggiano along with bubbles of natural gas emitting a stench more akin to a gas station than the miles of green woods that surround it. Legends also point to oil.

Medieval Statue

The town that houses Eni’s oil processing plant, whose bright red flame can be seen for miles at night, is also home to the Madonna of Viggiano. It’s a medieval statue that according to legend was found by a group of shepherds after seeing mysterious fires in the night.

“Let’s say that in God’s mind, it was all already written,” says Viggiano’s priest Don Paolo who considers the oil underneath the valley “an opportunity for development” of the historically poor area.

While exploration started in the 1940s, the valley’s full potential only became clear in the early 1990s when Eni started to drill and develop the wells. Opposition from locals and complex bureaucracy slowed down extraction until a deal was reached with the region in 1998 setting the 104,000 barrel a day limit that Eni plans to reach in the next few years, and setting up a system of royalties for local populations.

Royalty Payments

Eni pays 10% royalties, most of which go to local administrations. The company said in its latest report on Basilicata that it has given 585 million euros to the region and towns involved in production between 1998 and 2012. Viggiano alone, which has 3,300 inhabitants, received about 15 million euros in 2012, according to mayor Giuseppe Alberti.

The town is willing to consider an increase in production as long as jobs are created and improvements in technology guarantee no increase in emissions from the plant, Alberti said in an interview from his office perched atop the medieval town overlooking the valley and oil facility.

While many favor further development, some residents grumble as they uneasily look at the oil plant’s flame, which has become for them a symbol of the valley’s exploitation.

“We’re simple people and the cohabitation isn’t always easy, health is a concern, the environment is a concern and we intend to protect both,” mayor Alberti said.

Both Eni and an independent regional authority regularly monitor the air, water and soil. The company has tried to mitigate the visual impact of its work, putting a cover around the less attractive parts of its rig and painting equipment in soft green colors that blend with the landscape. An operation that Eni manager Gheller says is “unique in its kind.”

“We don’t need green skirts on wells, we need to stop,” said environmentalist De Biasi. “They’ll push for more but we’ll give battle too.”

See the original article >>

A New Banking Crisis? What FDIC Does Not Want You to Know

By Louis Basenese

“What gets us into trouble is not what we don’t know. It’s what we know for sure that just ain’t so.” - Mark Twain
I’d have to disagree with Mr. Twain.

While holding fast to misconceptions can certainly ruin us, ignorance can get us into big trouble, too.

I mean, how many people would have scooped up real estate in 2007 if they’d known that Goldman Sachs had a $13.9 billion bet (dubbed “the big short”) against subprime mortgage-related securities at the time?

Not one!

With that in mind, it’s time to unmask the next potential crisis to hit the financial markets… before it’s too late!

All is Not Well With Banks

Longtime readers know that I’ve been chronicling the steady improvement in the financial sector. Thankfully, the latest data indicates that the positive progress is continuing…

The FDIC’s official tally of “problem banks” keeps declining. In fact, the number has retreated for seven consecutive quarters.

Even the unofficial number of problem banks is on the mend. (This is a broader measure, which includes institutions that have received enforcement actions by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.) The list now includes 770 banks with assets of about $285 billion, compared to 929 banks a year ago.

Don’t let that fool you into thinking that all is well in the banking world, though.

What you might not know is that the FDIC’s list only includes federally insured, traditional banks. It doesn’t include any of the 6,819 federally insured credit unions.

Most Americans don’t realize this, and therein lies the problem…

The Rise of Stealth Banks

Here’s what the bureaucrats at the FDIC don’t want us to know…

While traditional bank failures have been falling since 2010, credit union failures have remained steady at about 15 per year. And the fact that we’ve hit six so far in 2013 suggests that we’re on track for another average year.

However, I’m convinced the number could start climbing. Here’s why…

Over the last 20 years or so, the reach of these supposed “small, risk-averse and family-run” credit unions, asBusinessWeek puts it, keeps expanding. No longer are credit unions confined to serving small, local markets. Consider:

  • A total of $1.02 trillion in assets is now held in credit unions, based on the latest data from the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA).
  • About 20 years ago, there were only 13 credit unions with over $1 billion in assets. By comparison, there are almost 200 today. So we’re talking about a 1,400% increase in the number of large credit unions.

The Rise of Stealth Banks

To really put that growth in perspective, consider that over the same period (1994-2012), the number of traditional banks with over $1 billion in assets only increased by roughly 40%.

Much More Than a Community Lender

Bad things happen when financial institutions extend far beyond their original intent. And right now, credit unions have definitely done so.

Or as Keith Leggett, Senior Economist for the American Bankers Association, notes, “credit unions have evolved” to the point where a meaningful number are now competing directly with banks.

The real danger comes in when we realize that the insurance fund that backstops the credit unions’ aggressive growth practices stands at only $11 billion.

So all it would take to wipe out the fund entirely is for one of the four credit unions with assets of over $10 billion to fail.

I’m not saying such a failure is imminent. But I am saying that credit unions have grown too fast for their own good, and there probably isn’t enough insurance to cover the consequences of a disaster.

The good news?

Credit unions are non-profit entities and are owned by their members. So none are publicly traded. That means we don’t have to worry about owning a “problem credit union” in our portfolios.

The bad news? The key benefits that we associate with credit unions – like better interest rates and lower fees – might become a thing of the past.

Either because the companies can’t keep them and still grow enough to compete with traditional banks. Or worse, because they start going belly-up at an increasing rate.

See the original article >>

Gold Long Wait is Almost Over

By: Peter_Degraaf

“The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money.” …Alexis de Tocqueville.

The price of gold reached an all-time high of $1925 on September 6th 2011. Since then the price dropped to a low point of $1321 on April 16th 2013. A correction of 45% during a bull market is not unusual; as painful as it is for gold bulls. In the process gold has reached a support line that has held up since the current bull market began. Time is almost up! In the words of W. D. Gann: “When time is up, price will reverse.”

Featured is the weekly gold chart. Price has travelled inside this channel since turning bullish in 2002. The current correction has caused the RSI (top of chart), and CCI (bottom of chart), to return to support levels that have offered support in the past. Since June is often a low point in the yearly gold cycle, there is still a possibility that price could dip to lateral support at the green arrow. The closer we come to the end of June the less likely that this will occur. In the event that it happens, it would simply require a slight widening of the channel. A breakout at the blue arrow turns the trend bullish again.

This chart courtesy Seasonalcharts.com shows the tendency for gold to exhibit weakness into June before entering the ‘Christmas rally’. In view of the fact that gold suffered weakness in May (instead of strength) this year, it could well be that the June lows came early in 2013.

It is in the interest of central banks along with the bullion banks that are co-operating, to keep the price of gold as low as possible, to hide the effects of monetary inflation from the public.


This chart courtesy Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis shows the M2 money supply is rising without interruption. M2 is now seven times what it was in 1980, when gold was trading at $850.00. This has the potential to drive gold to almost $6,000.00 an ounce without even counting the money that is being printed by other countries. In the history of civilization, there is not one country that escaped the destruction of its fiat currency, once monetary inflation became part of the process.


This chart courtesy Zerohedge.com shows the three components of price inflation: Velocity of M2 (blue), Wages (red), and CPI (dotted). Until these three trends turn up we can expect the US FED to continue to add liquidity to the system.

“There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold.
Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots
bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and
universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence” …..Charles Degaulle

Following are some charts that show the gold price is coiled, ready to spring.


This chart courtesy Shortsideoflong.blogspot.com shows the Price of Gold at the top and the Gross Short Positions of Hedge Funds at the bottom. The number of short positions taken on by hedge funds is at an all-time high. Hedge funds use trend-following trading systems - they follow each other. They’ve all rushed into the same set-up, including add-ons during the past 3 weeks. They’ve taken these positions while the commercial traders (representing the so-called ‘smart money), have reduced their short positions to the lowest levels in several years (next chart).

This chart courtesy Cotpricecharts.com shows the ‘net short’ position of commercial gold traders (currently at 84,000), to be at the lowest level since November 2008. Gold was trading at $802.00 back then, just before the rise to $1925.00 The commercials are telling us here that they expect the price to rise soon. As a percentage of the total open interest these net short positions make up just 19%. This is the lowest percentage in many years.


This chart courtesy Alisdair Mcleod shows the 4 largest commercial traders have gone 'net long' in COMEX gold contracts, for the first time since records were kept. This is extremely bullish, as these traders are considered to be the 'smart money'.

Still another sign that gold is ready to turn back up is seen by the number of analysts who are calling for lower prices, or denigrating gold such as Ric Edelman, who prefers to diversify into ‘paper wealth’ instead. The current ‘gold analysts survey’ by Mark Hulbert shows a reading of -35%. This is the lowest reading in years, and from a contrarian point of view this is a very bullish sign.

This chart courtesy Mc Clellan Financial Publications shows a correlation between the premium charged for American Gold Eagles at more than 6%, (scale at right side), and the subsequent rise in the price of gold (scale at left).

This chart courtesy Sharelynx.com shows the rapid decline in gold for delivery at the COMEX. The bullion is there to back the contracts that are bought and sold, in case the buyer wants to take delivery. If and when the COMEX runs out of gold (or nears that point) the officials in charge will declare 'force majeure' and the price of gold will rise dramatically, just as the Palladium price rose following a 'force majeure' a few years ago.


This chart courtesy Bloomberg, UBS, and Frank Holmes, shows the spread between gold and the S&P 500 index has widened considerably and is due to narrow.

The price of silver is also due to turn higher soon.


Featured is the weekly silver chart. Price produced an upside reversal after finding support at the lateral support level at 20.00. A close above the blue arrow will confirm the bottom. The two supporting indicators are already rising off support levels.


This chart courtesy Seasonalcharts.com shows the seasonal tendency for silver to bottom in June and rise for the remainder of the year and on into spring. In view of the fact that price dropped quite dramatically in April this year, could it be that the June bottom came early this year?

This chart courtesy CoinExpert.com and the Dailyreckoning.com shows the premium on US 'junk silver' coins continues to rise due to strong demand. Historically, whenever the premium on 90% US silver coins rises above 10%, it coincides with a strong rally in the price of silver.

Conclusion: We’ve either seen the bottom in this long correction, or we’re extremely close. Worldwide money printing is ongoing. Unless and until monetary inflation (monetary destruction) turns into price inflation (and it will), the expectation is that the printing presses will continue to produce paper. The longer the stand-off between central banks adding to the money supply, and the gold price being suppressed by bullion banks selling contracts that represent nothing but ‘I-owe-U’s, the higher the price of physical gold and silver will ultimately rise.

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