Saturday, April 12, 2014

Twitter shares four years from today — down 45%?

By Mark Hulbert

A gauge that tracks sales growth suggests there’s more pain ahead

Twitter and Facebook have taken a beating, with their shares down 45% and 19% from recent highs.

They could be in for more punishment.

That, at least, is the conclusion of a common valuation formula that uses projected sales growth to estimate where newly public stocks will be trading five years after their initial public offerings.

Focusing on sales is important because both Twitter /quotes/zigman/23556538/delayed/quotes/nls/twtr TWTR -3.12%  and Facebook /quotes/zigman/9962609/delayed/quotes/nls/fb FB -1.06%  — like most young firms — are sacrificing earnings to invest in future growth. As a result, earnings-based valuation measures may paint a distorted picture.

The sales-based formula discussed here is based on two key assumptions: how fast a company’s revenue will grow over its first five years as a public company, and what its price/sales ratio will be. (The price/sales ratio is calculated by dividing stock price by sales per share.)

We know how fast sales have grown at newly public companies in the past because of research conducted by Jay Ritter, a finance professor at the University of Florida who studies IPOs, and two colleagues at the University of California, Davis — Martin Kenney and Donald Patton, a professor and research associate, respectively. They studied 1,700 U.S. companies whose stocks began trading between 1996 and 2007.

They found that these companies’ sales on average grew 212%, in inflation-adjusted terms, over their first five years. That is far faster than the growth experienced recently by companies overall. For the S&P 500, inflation-adjusted sales have actually fallen over the past five years.

What about the typical young company’s price/sales ratio? According to FactSet, the median ratio for stocks in the Dow Jones U.S. Internet Index on their fifth birthdays was 5.87. The current price/sales ratio for the S&P 500 is 1.64.

Using Ritter’s data, forecasting Twitter’s stock in November 2018 — five years after its IPO — becomes a matter of simple math: Multiply its sales per share in the 12 months before going public by 212%, and multiply that by the price/sales ratio of 5.87.

Those calculations suggest its stock will be 45% lower than where the messaging service trades today. That is above and beyond the loss the stock has already suffered. A Twitter spokesman declined to comment.

The picture at Facebook potential is even less pretty: The social network’s price in May 2017 — five years after its IPO — will be 50% lower than where it is today. A Facebook spokeswoman declined to comment.

How can Twitter and Facebook escape these awful fates? Either their sales will have to rise faster than average, or their price/sales ratio will have to be higher.

Either is certainly possible, of course. “For companies that operate in ‘winner take all’ markets, the profit potential is enormous,” Ritter says. “This is why Facebook was willing to pay $19 billion for WhatsApp,” referring to the smartphone-messaging app that Facebook acquired in February.

Ritter hastens to add, however, that the Achilles’ heel of these winner-take-all markets “is that a company’s niche can evaporate almost overnight.”

Investors willing to tolerate that risk may want to instead bet on high-tech companies with more reasonable valuations. Only three such stocks in the Dow Jones U.S. Internet Index are recommended currently by even two of the 42 advisers on the Hulbert Financial Digest’s monitored list who have beaten the Wilshire 5000 index over the past 15 years. (That is a long enough period to largely eliminate the role luck may otherwise play in a good track record.)

They are Google, operator of the world’s largest search engine; Yandex, its Russian counterpart; and Qihoo 360 Technology, the Chinese Internet company. When focusing on trailing 12-month sales, all three stocks trade at lower price/sales ratios than either Twitter’s (36.8, according to FactSet) or Facebook’s (19.7). Google’s is the lowest, at 3.1, Yandex’s is 7.6, and Qihoo’s is 11.

While these valuations may make these stocks less vulnerable than either Facebook or Twitter to a slowdown in sales growth, bear in mind that the Internet sector still is a lot more volatile than the overall stock market. The Dow Jones Internet Index has historically declined 23% further than the S&P 500 during broad market declines.

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Gold Preparing to Launch as U.S. Dollar Drops to Key Support

By: Jason_Hamlin

Gold bugs have been forecasting a dollar collapse for years. They have been correct about the gold price, which has advanced nearly 400% in the past 12 years versus a gain of just 64% for the S&P 500. They were also correct about the dollar during the first phase of the gold bull market (2001-2008), when the USD index fell from 120 to around 72.

But the dollar did not continue to plummet after 2008 and indeed has held up remarkably well. The USD index has put in a series of higher lows over the past few years, showing strength against other currencies. But this strength is being tested once again as the index has fallen to critical support around the 80 level. While these tests of support are typically spaced out by several months, this will be the second test of support in the past month. Pressure on the U.S. dollar appears to be increasing and failure of support could ignite a massive decline.

Looking back to the start of the gold bull market, we see that gold and the dollar have maintained a fairly consistent inverse relationship. When the dollar moved up, gold moved down. When the dollar fell, gold pushed higher. The only major exceptions were 2005 and early 2010, when gold and the dollar moved higher in lockstep.

It is interesting to note that over the first 12 years on this chart, there was never been a prolonged period where gold and the dollar dropped together. This has changed over the past year.

When we zoom in on the chart, we can see a new anomaly in boxes 1, 2 and 3, whereby the gold price has been dropping alongside the dollar, rather than rallying. If we add together gold’s losses in these three boxes, we get a decline of nearly $300, despite a weakening of the U.S. dollar. Something is clearly out of whack as gold has failed to push higher against the backdrop of a lower dollar for the first time in over a decade.

Lastly, in box 4 we can see gold rising alongside the U.S. dollar for the first time since 2010. When combining these time periods, gold and the USD have actually had a positive correlation for a good part of the past 18 months.

I believe the anomaly is due to increased manipulation and use of HFT algos in the precious metals market. I don’t suspect that the positive correlation will persist, especially with the increasing spotlight on gold price manipulation. Additionally, fundamental conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for a major drop in the value of the U.S. dollar.

There is a growing movement to dump U.S. dollars in global trade in favor of local currencies or even gold. Russia and China appear to be spearheading these efforts, with new bilateral trade deals that bypass the U.S. dollar and additional agreements with BRICS nations to use Rubbles or local currencies. Russia has also set up agreements to purchase oil from Iran with Rubbles, Yuan or even gold. Central banks are increasingly replacing dollar reserves with Yuan reserves and the increased spotlight on the manipulation in the gold market could hamper the ability of the United States to continue propping up the dollar.

These developments are all very bearish for the U.S dollar, whose days as world reserve currency appear to be numbered. Given the debt levels of the U.S. government, unprecedented money printing to bail out the banks and keep the economy afloat over the past 5 years and growing distrust and distaste for the U.S. following the NSA revelations, one has to wonder if the whole house of cards could come crumbling down sometime soon.

Gold has been the major benefactor, up roughly 10% year to date. The technical chart has turned bullish, with gold breaking through long-term resistance in February. It put in a rough double bottom, followed by outlines of a cup and handle pattern, both bullish indicators. The RSI is pointing higher with room to run and I expect gold will be above $1,500 within the next few months.

Gold bugs may have been too early in their call for the dollar’s demise, but the prediction may prove true yet. With the stock market looking to be in the midst of a major crash, precious metals would seem the obvious buy at the moment. Gold is one of the only asset classes that does not appear overheated and wildly overvalued at current levels. Whether the dollar collapses suddenly or dies a slow death, you will want to have gold and silver in your portfolio to protect your wealth.

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Gold And Silver – 2014 Coud Be A Yawner; Be Prepared For A Surprise

By: Michael_Noonan

For the past year, we have been saying that the charts for gold and silver are likely bottoming in a normal manner, and it takes time for a this kind of formation to complete itself. It remains the case, to date.
What is likely to cause a sharp price reversal to the upside for gold and silver? If both were allowed to simply adjust to inflation, you would see a fairly substantial rally. Given that will not be the case, what will be a/the catalyst for a precious metal [PM] change in trend?

Could it be enormous purchases of whatever-is-available physical gold by countries like China and India? No. That has been in the works and a known fact for a few years now, and gold continues to languish near recent lows.
How about prospects for a U S-prompted breakout of war? [No other country seems interested in starting one.] No. Libya failed to ignite anything, nor did the Arab Spring or the ongoing Syrian situation where the US sees chemicals everywhere, except in rebel hands.
What about Iran and its "nuclear proliferation" that needs to be stopped? No. Pakistan and North Korea have nuclear capabilities well beyond that of Iran, so a nuclear threat from a country that does not have nuclear capability is another US false flag. What Iran does have that neither Pakistan nor North Korea have is oil. Wait. Are not all contracts for trade in oil based on use of the petrodollar? The first "yes!"
How about the US-sponsored coup d'etat in Ukraine as an instigation for war? No. It has been well-checked by Putin, so far. Wait. Are not all contracts for natural gas trade based on use of the petrodollar? A second "yes."
What about the loss of the petrodollar as a world reserve currency? Would that cause the prices for gold and silver to rise dramatically? A huge yes for that one.
Come to think of it, the reason for the US-led invasion of Iraq was due to Saddam's cache of Weapons of Mass Destruction. Turns out, there were none, but Iraq did have oil, just like Iran, and both countries were selling their oil for gold, by-passing the use of the US fiat-issue petrodollar. The elites have consequences for when their rules are ignored. Iraq was invaded, and partially ruined, and Iran has been economically sanctioned
Syria is not known as an oil-producing nation. True. That is not the threat to the US. What is a threat is the strategic location of a Syrian port used as an integral part for sending Russian natural gas to Europe. A successful pipeline that is not run by the US is a huge concern, especially because the natural gas coming from Russia will not use the petrodollar. Without the petrodollar standard, the US cannot export its inflationary fiat to the rest of the world.
Countries that use the petrodollar hold large quantities of US treasury bonds to facilitate trade agreements. If countries, let us say like Iraq and Iran, stop basing oil trade on the petrodollar, other countries will follow suit. The elites cannot allow this to happen. Both countries are relatively small compared to the BRICS alliance, of which China is fast- becoming the world's biggest energy user. All of the BRICS nations,[Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa], and a host of other countries are starting their own trade agreements, and guess which country is "odd man out?" The elite's own United States. The elites cannot allow this to happen, but they cannot stop it, either. This is a problem for them.
While everyone is focused on the demand side for gold, doing all kinds of calculations, trying to figure out the real number of tonnes China has purchased. Our simple answer: a lot, and the real number is of no consequence.
All of the charts depicting countries purchasing gold, graphs showing the depletion of COMEX, LBMA, GLD, et al, are well done and nice to look at, but none address why the price of gold and silver are at relatively low levels, these days.
Gold, more so than silver, has been purposefully suppressed to keep the fiat petrodollar propped up. The elites will stop at nothing to prevent gold from being recognized as an alternative to their Western world fiat Ponzi scheme. Why has the elite-puppet Obama been continually enabling and prompting the illegally sponsored coup in Ukraine?
The US is fighting to keep the Wizard behind the curtain from being exposed for the fraud that it is. The fraud is the fiat Ponzi scheme and the utter insolvency of the entire Western central banking system. What keeps it alive, actually more on a respirator, at this stage, is the grip over the entire Western world political system which is designed to keep the masses enslaved to the debt system from which there is little hope of escape.
There is a reason why there has been such a militarized build-up in the United States, used against certain countries to keep all other countries in line, lest they be next. The militarization of local police forces, with their highly armed swat teams, former military vehicles being "donated" to cities and towns. This is by elite design to have the means of keeping the masses under control, no match for the excessively armed police. This is why elite-kisser Michael Bloomberg, who has turned the NY police into a virtual private military, and why he has been busy campaigning for national gun control. A population with no means to defend itself is an easy target to keep under control.
Chicago has some of the strictest gun-control laws in the nation, yet crime and death by gun is amongst the highest in this country. What will more gun controls accomplish? Nothing. Not a thing. All that needs be done is to enforce the gun laws on the books, but that would not solve the disarming of the people, which is what the corporate federal government wants in order to eliminate all forms of civil resistance.
We got a little off topic re the threat of dismantling of the petrodollar, and with it the rapid fall of the United States into a third-rate country drowning in debt with no way out. The elites can ill afford to lose its primary ATM machine that feeds the top .0001% who profit by controlling all the money. All of these seemingly extraneous events are really tied into the control of the powerful and power-hungry elites. The Rothschild crowd.
As was stated last week, we know of no sentence that has had a more profound effect on the people of the world than the one uttered by Mayer Amschel Rothschild, "Give me control of a nation's money, and I care not who makes the laws." [See Power Of Elites More Important Than China's Gold, 5th paragraph and the ones following as explanation.]
Why is it that 2014 may be like a repeat of 2013 in failed expectations for gold and silver to reach new highs and beyond?
For as long as the elites maintain their monetary power to destroy countries via their imposition of financial terrorism, [Greece, Cyprus, Ireland, Spain, et al, and now trying to gain financial control over Ukraine, in desperation. The utter inability of Germany to repatriate its own gold, to which one should ask, why is Germany not in an uproar over this? Hint: Power of the elites to keep Germany in line.], the price of gold and silver will take time to turn around.
The catalyst will not be how much gold China owns. The catalyst will be the fall of the petrodollar. Once that happens, checkmate elites. Game over US. Gold and silver, rise to your natural relationship between supply and demand, no longer being artificially suppressed.
The problem for now? There is no viable alternative to replace the broken fiat petrodollar scam. The Chinese have already made clear that they do not want their Yuan tied to the price of gold, and China is not really equipped yet to have their currency be a substitute world reserve, emphasis on the adverb "yet."
Russia's ruble is not sufficiently held by other countries to make the ruble a reserve currency. It is in a position to grow into that status, but not in the near future. Which country has the ability to replace the petrodollar? None of which we are aware. The BRICS nations are successfully building an alternative to trade that eliminates the fiat petrodollar, and that, more than anything else in the interim, poses the biggest threat to its demise.
We could see a marking of time during which all of this continues to unfold. No one has a clue as to the how or to the when, which is why 2014 could be an extension of 2013. The way in which Obama keeps prodding Russia could precipitate an event that escalates out of control, just possibly, as an example. This is why we say to watch out for weekend surprises. When people least expect, and/or are in a position to least react, some kind of announcement could be made that devalues the fiat Federal Reserve Note, still wrongly called the "dollar."
A few paragraphs back, we said the there is little hope of escape. For as long as the fiat monetary Ponzi scheme exists and people remain tethered to it though debt, dependent upon government through assistance/subsistence, there is no exit. The only means, or perhaps the best means is through the buying and personally holding physical gold and silver. Both PMs represent a form of wealth that leads to independence from control of any government.
This is why the Rothschilds took over this country via the Federal Reserve Act, ["Give me control of a nation's money, and I care not who makes the laws."], gained control of the money, and then once in control, had FDR make the Executive Order to have "all persons" turn in their gold under penalty of $10,000 and/or confiscation. This was also another sham that fooled people into believing an Executive Order applied to them, which it did not. But that is how the Rothschild formula works, through total deception.
[We keep repeating the Rothschild sentence about control over the money supply because once you comprehend how it is the genesis for all what ails people in their own country. Governments are nothing more than instruments for elite control over the people.]
These are the reasons why we keep exhorting everyone to buy gold and silver. Price is immaterial, having it is all that matters. Having gold and/or silver is what will keep you financially viable when this country falls apart, and fall apart it will. The US has been hollowed out since the Rothschild central bankers took over in 1913, in a financial coup d'etat.
On a final note, before reviewing the charts, a second interview conducted by SGTReport has been posted on the site. Here is the link for anyone interested. The Rothschild IMF Bankster Fiat Death Machine. The title was selected by Sean of SGTReport, and it gives a clue to some of the content discussed.
There is not a shred of evidence that the price of gold is about to embark upon a much higher trajectory. This is the value of reading developing market activity within the context of all the world news and events that potentially impact price. What the market is saying is that nothing in the news is disturbing the bottoming process. What people are saying about the market may be a different "story," but it is the market that has the final say. Pay attention to it.
What we are paying attention to in this chart is the volume spike. Whenever you see a sharp increase in volume, the immediate question to ask is "why?" Remember, it is not the public that creates volume. The public reacts to it. Therefore, almost always, any increase in relative volume is indicative of "smart money" activity.
When volume increased while price was declining, one would naturally expect to see more downside follow through. When the opposite happens, it is worth paying closer attention. The lack of further downside suggests buyers were overcoming sellers, shifting market composition from weak into stronger hands, and that is positive for a market trying to form a bottom.


The daily chart confirms the weekly. The read of the developing market activity prompted a buy recommendation at 1291. Because of our own trading rules, a sell, about $18 higher was made a few TDs later. Price is still under a half-way retracement from the March swing high to the recent April swing low. On the wide range bar lower, market "S/D," which indicates Supply overcoming Demand, a thin horizontal line was drawn off the high, a place where sellers will defend a retest. That high is just above the 50% mark of the trading range. The confluence of two separate indicators could make the 1235 area resistance on a rally to that area.
For now, it looks like gold can be bought on breaks, based upon whatever rules one has for establishing a position in the market.


While silver is not showing signs of strength, it is showing signs of resistance to downward selling pressure. It has taken 5 - 8 weeks to correct the previous 3 week rally, shown on the chart. This tells us that even in a weakened state, silver is showing an ability to rally with greater ease than decline. Little signs like this can be the forerunner of more change to come. Preparation becomes important in order to take advantage should a buying opportunity present itself.


Here we see the importance of reading developing market activity. You look for patterns because they repeat, over and over. We discussed a volume situation in weekly gold, and here it shows up on a daily silver chart. The patterns will not always be exactly the same, for good reason, but they sure do rhyme a lot.
The increase in volume at an area of support is not random. Markets are not random, except for those who have no clue about what price and volume can consistently reveal. We look for these repeating patterns to be prepared for opportunity when it strikes, for when a pattern is recognized, it is the market's way of offering an edge. The most important part of seeing these behavior patterns is to know how to respond to them as they occur. How do you know how to respond? You devise a set of trading rules that fit the pattern behavior. Everything then become a function of following your rules of engagement. Nothing is left to chance. This is how skilled professionals trade. Therein lies a message.

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Stock Market Potential Diagonal Triangle Pattern Forming

By: Tony_Caldaro

A volatile and somewhat disappointing week for the bulls. The week started off with a gap down on Monday, followed by a tradable low at SPX 1837 on Tuesday. Then after a rally to SPX 1873 at Thursday’s open, the market sold off rapidly into Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW were -2.50%, the NDX/NAZ were -2.85%, and the DJ World index was -2.0%. Economic reports for the week, oddly enough, were all to the upside. On the uptick: consumer credit, wholesale inventories, export/import prices, the PPI, consumer sentiment, the WLEI, the M1-multiplier, plus the budget deficit and weekly jobless claims both improved. Next week we get reports on the FED’s beige book, Industrial production, the NY/Philly FED and Housing.

LONG TERM: bull market

This week’s market activity put a dent in our more bullish realignment scenario as the SPX/DOW/NDX/NAZ all confirmed downtrends. The realignment would have occurred if the SPX/DOW remained in uptrends, while the NDX/NAZ ended its downtrend. As a result of this week’s activity we have shifted the SPX count to match the DOW count, while our NDX/NAZ count remains unchanged. More on this later.

We continue to count this bull market as Cycle wave [1]. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011, and Primary wave III has been underway since then. While only one of Primary I’s five Major waves subdivided, all three rising Major waves of Primary III are subdividing. We have labeled Major waves 1 and 2 completing in mid-2012, and Major waves 3 and 4 completing in mid-2013. Major wave 5 has been underway since that low.

When Major wave 5 does conclude, it will end Primary III. Then we should see the largest correction since 2012 for Primary IV. After that Primary V should carry the market to new all time highs. Currently our bull market target is SPX 1970-2070 by Q3 2014.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

After an uptrend high in January, which we labeled Int. wave one, and a downtrend low in February. We expected the recent uptrend to be Int. wave three. This week, however, a new downtrend was confirmed ending what appears to be a three wave February to April uptrend. This uptrend aborted quite a bit below expectations, and it can not possibly be a wave three, as it has already overlapped the high of the previous uptrend. As a result of this market activity we have aligned the SPX count with the DOW count.

We have been counting the DOW as a potential Major wave 5 diagonal triangle. This pattern is considered a rising wedge a-b-c-d-e pattern that unfolds in higher highs and higher lows. But all uptrends are overlapped by the next downtrend. Under this scenario the NDX/NAZ can continue to complete their Primary III normally, while the SPX/DOW make marginal new highs in their Primary III. Then they will likely all realign again for Primary wave IV.

When reviewing the SPX chart under this scenario we observed Int. wave A topped in January, then had a 50% retracement for Int. wave B. With the recent uptrend, Int. C, topping in April another 50% retracement would find support around SPX 1814. If the retracement extends to 61.8%, which is acceptable in this pattern, the SPX should find support around 1800. If this level does not hold, and the downtrend creates more of a channel than a rising wedge. Then our alternate count, in green on the daily chart, would suggest a retest of SPX 1738. We are likely to find out which count is in play this week. Medium term support is at the SPX 1779 and 1699 pivots, with resistance at the 1828 and 1841 pivots.

SHORT TERM

Short term support is at SPX 1814, SPX 1800, with resistance at the 1828 and 1841 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week oversold, with a positive divergence. The short term OEW charts remain negative from SPX 1860, with the reversal level now 1846.

The February to April uptrend appears to have ended with three Minor waves: 1884-1842-1897. The downtrend from that high also appears to be unfolding in three Minor waves: 1837-1873-1814 thus far. When we reviewed the January to February downtrend we observed it had also declined in Minor three waves: 1770-1799-1738. This is typical wave activity in a diagonal triangle.

The a-b-c January to February downtrend unfolded as a 5-3-5 zigzag. Minor A was five waves down, Minor B a strong rally, then Minor C five waves down, in total: 80-30-60 points. This downtrend, from the April high, has already completed five waves down for Minor A, Minor B was a strong rally, Minor C appears in the process of doing five waves down, in total 60-35-60 points so far. Notice these two downtrends are thus far quite similar. If this Minor wave C ends with a small diagonal triangle it could bottom around SPX 1814. If it divides into five clean waves then SPX 1800 could provide support. Thus far we can count four waves down from the SPX 1873 Minor B wave high: 1820-1835-1814-1823. A diagonal triangle Minor C could be forming. If the market continues to fall to the 1779 pivot, then a retest of SPX 1738 is likely. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were quite mixed ending -0.1%.

The European markets were all lower losing 3.7%.

The Commodity equity group was mixed for a loss of 0.6%.

The DJ World index is still uptrending but lost 2.0%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are getting close to confirming an uptrend and gained 0.9% on the week.

Crude is still uptrending and gained 2.7% on the week.

Gold is trying to establish and uptrend and gained 1.3% on the week.

The USD appears to be downtrending again losing 1.2% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: Retails sales at 8:30, then Business inventories at 10am. Tuesday: the CPI, NY FED and NAHB housing index. Wednesday: Housing starts, Building permits, Industrial production and the FED’s Beige book. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims and the Philly FED. The FED has several speeches scheduled this week. Sunday: FED governor Stein at 1:30. Tuesday: FED chair Yellen at 8:45. Wednesday: FED governor Stein at 8:15, and FED chair Yellen at 12:45. Best to your weekend and week!

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Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Dollar Breakout or Range-bound?

by Marc Chandler

The US dollar had a difficult week. It lost ground against all the major currencies. Falling interest rates, sparked by the FOMC minutes that reassured investors that an early US rate hike is highly unlikely and a drop in the equity markets that wiped out the first quarter gains, appears to have been the main culprit. 

Recall that the dollar-bloc had led the move against the dollar last month, but since the new quarter began the euro and yen have participated. Last week, the yen and Swiss franc were the strongest of the majors, while the dollar-bloc seemed to tire.

Given the technical damage inflicted on the dollar and the decline in US interest rates, it is tempting to look for the greenback's losses to accelerate. Yet ,we are more inclined to think that rather than breaking out, the dollar simply moved to the lower end of its ranges. 

This means that the greenback may do a bit better in the days ahead as participants will likely be denied fresh incentives. The pullback in US interest rates has likely run its course, US data, including retail sales and industrial production, will point to a recovery from the sluggish start of the year, and important chart levels have been approached. 

Dollar Index: From the high on April 4 through the low set on April 10, the Dollar Index fell about 1.6%. Last week, it posted its largest decline since late Q3 13. However, it the bears stalled in front of last month's lows, just below 79.30, which also corresponds to the bottom of the Bollinger Band. A move now above 78.80 would help stabilize the tone.

Euro: After the ECB meeting and the US employment report in the first week in April, the euro had probed the bottom of its Bollinger Band and finished last week near the upper band ($1.3935). Given the psychological importance of the $1.40 area, and what will be a long holiday weekend for many, we suspect the short-term participants will shy away from pushing the euro much higher in the days ahead. Support is likely to be found in the $1.3780-$1.3800 initially.

Yen: The dollar also fell to the lower end of its range against the yen near JPY101.30. We suspect a break would require US 10-year rates to fall through the 1.60%. The stronger economic data we expect should prevent this. An upside correction for the dollar would likely encounter initial resistance near JPY102, which corresponds to the 5-day moving average. The dollar has not closed above it since April 3.

Sterling: The push above $1.68 on April 10 appears to have exhausted the short-term sterling bulls. Sterling stalled just in front of the multi-year high set in mid-February near $1.6825. The gains had lifted sterling above the upper Bollinger Band. On April 9, sterling closed above the upper band for the third time this year and after each of the other times sterling came off at least two cents. Downside potential extends toward $1.6600-40. Sterling also looks heavy against the euro. The euro's move toward GBP0.8230 appears to have completed the drop from GBP0.8400 in late March.

Canadian dollar: From the FOMC meeting on March 19 through the middle of last week, the US dollar lost about 3.8% against the Canadian dollar. The move to CAD1.0860 appears to have completed the greenback's decline. The RSI has already turned up, and the MACDs are about to cross. The initial retracement target is CAD1.1020 and then CAD1.1070, which roughly corresponds to the 20-day moving average.


Australian dollar: The head and shoulders bottom we have discussed, projects to about $0.9500.  The Australian dollar reached $0.9460 on April 10, before giving up a cent on profit-taking ahead of the weekend.  That pullback met a minimum retracement objective of the bounce from the test on $0.9200 on April 3.  Provided this area holds,  the bulls may be emboldened. 

Mexican peso:   The dollar is likely to recover against the peso.  The RSI is neutral but the MACDs are about to cross.  The dollar traded below the MXN13.00 level in five of the past six sessions and managed to finish only once below there, which seems to have been a clue of the waning downside momentum.  The initial retracement target near MXN13.1330 was approached before the weekend.  The MXN13.1750-MXN13.20 area represents a more important resistance area. 

Observations from the speculative positioning in the CME currency futures:

1.  The net speculative Australian dollar futures position swung to the long side (3k contracts from -5k) for the first time since last May.  As recently as early February, speculators had a gross short position of 80k contracts.  It has been more than halved to a little more than 34k contracts.  The gross long position bottomed a month ago around 9k contracts.  It is now almost 38k contracts.
2.  There were four gross position changes that are significant (more than 10k contracts).  The gross short yen positions was shaved by 10k contracts to 101k.  The net position did not change much as 9k longs also moved to the sidelines.  The gross long sterling position jumped almost 16k to 92k contracts.  This is a new 7-year high.  The Mexican peso accounted for the other two significant gross position adjusted.  Gross longs surged 21k contracts to 70.k.  Shorts were halved to about 14k contracts.
3.   It is interesting to think about the positioning a year ago.  Then the net speculative position was short the European currency futures.  Now it is long.  It has been about a 74k contract swing to create the net long 23k contracts has now.  For sterling it was more than 116k contract swing to produce the net long 47k it has now.  The net speculative yen position at -88k contracts is about 10k more shorts than it was a year ago. Speculators are net short half as many Canadian dollar futures as the 71k contracts that they had a year ago. At 3.3k contracts, the net long Australian dollar position is a sliver of last year's 78k contracts. Even though the net long peso position of 57k contracts is the largest among the currency futures, is a little more than third of the size of it year ago position (143k contracts).
4.  The gross long euro position fell by 10% to 92.6k contracts, which is the largest gross long position among the currency futures.  It just edged out sterling with its 91.6k contracts.  The yen's gross short position of 101k contracts is easily the largest.  Next is the gross short euro position of 69k contracts.

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Nel paese dei barbagianni l'inverosimile è già verità

by Edoardo Varini

Non mi dispiacerebbe proprio sapere da dove è nata l'idea che il tetto massimo per le retribuzioni dei manager pubblici debba essere l'emolumento del Presidente della Repubblica, 238 mila euro l'anno. E vorrei saperlo per due ragioni. La prima è che si tratta in tutta evidenza di una livella simbolica, solo che è posta troppo in alto, sicché finisce con il perdere qualunque attinenza con la realtà e la logica.

Perché mai, mi domando, un dirigente pubblico dovrebbe stare simbolicamente accosto alla più alta carica dello Stato? Finisce così con l'essere, quel troppo superno tetto, una livella di casta, il che – ce l'ha insegnato Totò – è un paradosso, dal momento che la livella, per definizione, non può rispettare le caste. E chi lo sostiene, seppur morto, si copre di ridicolo.

«La casta è casta, e va, sì, rispettata, ma Voi perdeste il senso e la misura; la Vostra salma andava, sì, inumata, ma seppellita nella spazzatura» dice il fantasma del nobile Marchese di Rovigo «c'o' tubbo, ' caramella e c'o' pastrano» a quello di Esposito Gennaro il netturbino, cui la sorte e le scarse sostanze riservarono una «tomba piccirella, abbandunata, senza manco un fiore, pe' segno, sulamente 'na crucella». Esposito per un po' sopporta epperò infine sbotta: «Sti ppagliacciate 'e fanno suolo 'e vive: nuje simmo seri... appartenemmo à morte».

Una livella di 238 mila euro, perdonatemi, è una pagliacciata. Per il Presidente francese sarebbe una manna (ne prende al momento 179 mila), e così pure per il premier del Regno Unito, David Cameron, che di euro ne incassa un migliaio di meno.

Ma il bello è che i più privilegiati forse lo resteranno. L'appello: Ugo Zampetti, Segretario generale della Camera. «Eccomi, guadagno 478 mila euro, ma siccome non mi bastano mi si concede pure un'indennità mensile di 662,02 euro». Elisabetta Serafin, Segretario generale del Senato: «Io invece ne prendo appena 427 mila». «Noi siamo i vicesegretari della Camera dei Deputati, Guido Letta e Aurelio Speziale, e prendiamo rispettivamente 340 e 328 mila euro». Bravi! Ve li meritate senz'altro.

Il Presidente degli Stati Uniti, Obama, riceve annualmente 400 mila dollari, che in euro fanno 288 mila.

alt

Mi sono preso la briga di leggermi il testo del Def, il Documento di Economia e Finanza appena approvato. A tratti è decisamente divertente, per esempio laddove si legge che: «l'economia italiana è entrata in una fase di ripresa, contrassegnata in prospettiva da dinamiche abbastanza favorevoli del commercio estero e da una graduale stabilizzazione della domanda interna».

«Abbastanza favorevoli» e «graduale stabilizzazione della domanda interna»: secondo il nostro governo questa è ripresa. Secondo l'Europa questo dovrebbe essere un documento serio.

Diciamo pure che per qualche ai più inesplicabile motivo, Matteo da Firenze, in Europa deve essere preso aprioristicamente sul serio. «Evviva Renzi! Evviva! Evviva!» Intoneremo gaudenti allora, iuvenes dum sunt.

Ier l'altro Matteo a Vinitaly: «L'export agroalimentare può amentare del 50% in 6 anni». Ma perché non del 60% in 5 anni? Ci hai pensato, Matteo? Potevi dirlo! E perché il nostro Pil nel 2016 non potrebbe essere del 5%? Non ti sei forse accorto che in questo Paese l'inverosimile è già verità?

Propongo a simbolo nazionale il barbagianni, che incontreremo anche nel «grande e ammirevole anfiteatro del celeberrimo Signor Heinrich Khunrath di Lipsia», a significare la notte dell'anima, il lugubre.

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