| After long job searches, some only find part-time work
On the 10th month of her job search, Lori DeSousa, who had been applying for marketing jobs, walked into her local Walgreens to ask about a part-time job as a cashier. It was January and her unemployment benefits had just been canceled after Congress failed to extend them at the end of last year. “I needed to get a job or we would have lost our home,” said DeSousa, 43, who was going through her second bout of long-term joblessness in four years. Studies show that once a person is out of the job market for longer than six months, they face a slimmer chance of finding stable work. Only 11% of the long-term unemployed find permanent, full-time work a year later, according to a research paper by Alan Krueger and other economists from Princeton University. It’s more likely that those job seekers will find unsteady work, with 14% of job hunters finding part-time work and 11% landing temporary work more than a year after losing their jobs. ( Study: Are the Long-Term Unemployed on the Margins of the Labor Market? ) Some seven million people who are working part time would prefer to take on full-time work. That number is coming down — 8 million people were in that position at this time last year, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics — but economists say it’s still stubbornly high for the current unemployment rate. During a speech in Chicago this week, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen called that figure “a sign that labor conditions are worse than indicated by the unemployment rate.” For some job seekers, the decision to take on part-time work is spurred on by necessity — say, the threat of an eviction notice. Other workers think that by getting some kind of job experience they’ll have a leg up over the other job seekers they’re competing with. But it isn’t clear that those people who choose to take on any work over no work are better off than they would’ve been if they had continued on with their job search. People who had high-paying, mid-to-high level career jobs with benefits may face a bigger setback to their careers and their paychecks if they switch to part-time work, says Gary Burtless, a labor economist with the Brookings Institution. “It’s a very tricky problem,” he says. “It may pay you better to keep looking for a job than to take a job that is below your qualifications.” That’s because the long-term unemployed often take a pay cut when they do land their next full-time job, and earning some income in between may not help the cause, especially if the work they take on is outside of the field they want to work in, says Steven Rothberg, president of CollegeRecruiter.com , a job board for students and recent graduates. Because employers tend to base salary off what a person was making in their previous position, workers who hypothetically used to make $20 an hour and then move to a part-time role where they make $10, may find that their next full time job pays $15 an hour, he says. Some may have more leverage when it comes to negotiating pay for their next full-time role if they use their spare time to intern or volunteer with a company in the industry they want to work in, says Rothberg. “You can talk about how ‘yes I worked part time as a barista where I was making $10 an hour but that allowed me to work 20 hours a week for an accountant,’” says Rothberg. To be sure, sometimes getting back to work, even if it isn’t steady work, can be a good call, says J.T. O’Donnell, founder of Careerealism.com , a career-advice and job-search site. Those job seekers may benefit from the added income and if the work isn’t relevant to the kind of job they want to get, some people can try to get paid freelance work. “Pitch yourself for projects as a way for you to stay working in the field,” says O’Donnell. Some people may also want to take online classes to keep their skills current. DeSousa, who ultimately decided against going to work for the pharmacy chain because she felt it would require her and her husband to pay an additional $1,000 a month for after-school care for their two children, started working as an account manager for College Recruiter in February. She landed the full-time job after spending up to six hours a day on her computer reaching out to contacts on LinkedIn /quotes/zigman/5131883/delayed/quotes/nls/lnkd LNKD -0.08% and Facebook /quotes/zigman/9962609/delayed/quotes/nls/fb FB +0.54% and searching for openings on job boards. “It just wore me down sometimes,” DeSousa says of her extended job search and the rejections she encountered. “I’m so fortunate to have gotten this position. I’m doing something I’m excited to do.” |
Friday, April 4, 2014
For long-time unemployed, full-time work is elusive
Ethanol price spike means you pay more for gasoline
| Ethanol used to make gasoline cheaper; its recent surge is adding costs per gallon
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Drivers are paying more for gasoline because of ethanol’s 30% price surge this year. Some relief may be in sight. Most of the gasoline sold has some ethanol in it, with the fuel additive accounting for about 10% of the volume of 134 billion gallons of gasoline consumed in 2012, U.S. government data show. Prices this year have surged about 30% to $2.30 a gallon, according to FactSet data. “No market in energy has had the off-the-charts increases that we’ve seen in ethanol in 2014,” said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at GasBuddy.com. Ethanol has also been volatile.The most-active ethanol futures contract , which is currently May, on Thursday fell 8% on the Chicago Board of Trade, after dropping 10% a day earlier. “Gravity can smack markets at the speed of light. Panic buying was eclipsed by panic selling,” said Kloza. |
 | In just March, ethanol prices shot up 22%. That’s bad news for consumers. Through most of the last few years, adding 10% ethanol resulted in a 5 cents-a-gallon or so decrease in the price of the finished motor-fuel blend, said Kloza, as prices for ethanol were significantly cheaper than gasoline. Motor fuel is 90% gasoline hydrocarbon plus 10% ethanol in most parts of the country. But the “skyrocketing cost of ethanol has altered that economic calculus,” he said. Wholesale ethanol prices over the last few weeks fetched about $4 a gallon or higher on the nation’s coasts. Blending a $4-a-gallon product (ethanol) with a $2.50-a-gallon product (gasoline) has resulted in increases in the price of finished motor fuel, Kloza said, adding that high-priced ethanol has added about 10 cents a gallon or more to gas prices in recent weeks. |
| One can certainly make the case that motorists might be looking at some $2.99 a gallon retail prices in some parts of the country or national average prices of around $3.40 a gallon if it were not for the expensive cost of ethanol,” he said. On Thursday, the average U.S. price for a gallon of regular gasoline stood at $3.566, according to AAA’s Daily Fuel Gauge Report . Already, gasoline prices as of Thursday have posted gains on two-thirds of the days year to date – up 62 out of 93 days so far, AAA spokesman Michael Green said. He said it’s typical to see rising prices during the first few months of the year due to refinery maintenance, the switchover to summer-blend gasoline and rising demand. Last year, average prices had increased 51 days out of the first 93. Ethanol’s riseEthanol prices saw large daily percentage gains during a volatile March, largely due to supply problems. |
 | “Transportation disruptions due to the harsh weather experienced over the winter continue to have a knock-on effect for the ethanol industry, with several industry sources expressing concern over low supply,” said Brian Milne, an energy editor and product manager at Schneider Electric. “That worry continues to spike ethanol values.” Unlike gasoline, in which physical flow is dependent on pipelines, about 60% to 75% of ethanol travels by railcars, according to Citi. Ethanol supplies are “short and hard to get,” said Bob van der Valk, senior editor at the Bakken Oil Business Journal, adding that some terminals in the Northeast are completely out of inventory. U.S. ethanol supplies stand at less than 16 million barrels, data from Schneider Electric show. That compares with supplies of more than 17 million around early February and 22.5 million barrels in the first quarter of 2012. Ethanol demand averaged about 893,000 barrels a day in January of this year, according to the Renewable Fuels Association. |
 A field of dead corn sits next to an ethanol plant in Illinois. | Van der Valk referred to the ethanol supply situation as being the “most severe shortage ... since 2006.” He also pointed out another reason for the recent spike in ethanol prices: most of the corn-growing farm areas have been delayed in planting this year’s crop because of the severe cold weather. Corn is used to make etano. And the increase in ethanol prices couldn’t have come at a worse time. “The petroleum industry is in the midst of the spring transition to summer-blend fuel, which already is putting upward pressure on prices,” said Jeff Lenard, a spokesman at the National Association of Convenience Stores, a trade group for an industry that sells 80% of the nation’s gasoline. Unfortunately, “any time wholesale prices increase on a low-margin product like gasoline, the price increases ultimately get passed along to consumers,” he said. |
Relief in sight?Still, analysts at Citi predict that ethanol prices should ease as the transportation-related issues die down. Ethanol prices will ease, possibly sharply, by June as “transportation hiccups are de-bottlenecked and warmer weather boosts rail freight delivery speeds, efficiency, and scale that were all undercut in [the first quarter] due to the harsh winter,” they said in a note this week. Refineries will also soon come back on line from their usual spring maintenance . That should allow for increased gasoline production that keeps pace with springtime demand, said AAA’s Green. “Gasoline supplies likely will build in anticipation of the summer-driving season, which should send prices downwards once we reach a springtime peak in the near future.” So “the main effect of higher ethanol costs is that gas prices may not drop as low as many people would like in late spring, but it should not prevent prices from falling,” said Green. “No matter how you look at it, the fundamentals of supply and demand for gasoline should have a much larger effect than ethanol on the price that consumers eventually pay.” AAA expects gasoline prices to see their springtime peak in April at $3.55 to $3.75 a gallon but also said the average price may not even surpass $3.65. Last year’s peak was at $3.79. There’s always a lot of uncertainty involved, however. “It’s unclear how long it will take for ethanol supply to move back into balance with demand,” after the weather-related transportation disruptions and on the back of continued concerns over low supplies, said Schneider Electric’s Milne. “The longer the imbalance lasts, the higher ethanol prices will go, and that will continue to boost retail gasoline prices.” |
Can the Jobs Data Give the Dollar Another Leg Up?
| The US dollar is consolidating yesterday's gains that were scored largely in response to Draghi's revelation that QE and a negative deposit rate were discussed at the ECB meeting. The greenbacks gains have brought it to important technical levels. This is around $1.3700 for the euro, $1.6570 for sterling and JPY104 against the yen. Meanwhile, against the Canadian dollar, the greenback continues to absorb bids in front of C$1.10 for seven consecutive days. The consensus expects that the US economy grew 200k jobs last month and that the unemployment rate ticked down to 6.6% from 6.7%. We suspect there is risk on the upside. Leaving aside the housing data and the manufacturing ISM, the recent pattern has been for economists to under-estimate the US data after generally being surprised on the downside during the first part of the year. In addition, the ISM for the service sector saw a strong recovery, providing new information we did not have at the start of the week. Weekly initial jobless claims fell between reporting periods. And, the week that the non-farm survey was conducted in February was particularly unseasonable, while the week the survey was conducted in March was one of the better late winter periods. Lastly, some have cited the 8% rise in payroll withholding tax. This is also the first jobs data post the March FOMC meeting, at which the FOMC dropped the 6.5% unemployment threshold. This warns that investors' focus may shift from the unemployment rate too. Given Yellen's comments, other components of the report may attract increased attention. Chief among these is the average hourly earnings. The 0.4% increase in February lifted the year-over-year rate to 2.2% and spurred some speculation of wage inflation. We have suggested that the hourly earnings data was skewed by the weather that produced a bit of a statistic quirk. That means the risk may be on the downside of the Bloomberg consensus forecast of a 0.2% increase. The bottom-line here is that US economic growth picked up in late Q1. The labor market continues to improve, but only slowly. The Fed remains on its path of tapering $10 bln a month.
Canada also reports March jobs data. There is likely to be a significant improvement here too. In February, partly weather-related, Canada reported a 7k decline in employment. This overstated the weakness as full-time jobs grew by almost 19k. Later the IVEY PMI will be released. It is expected to show another modest increase. Good North American news could push the US dollar through the CAD1.1. The CAD1.0965 area offers the next level of support, but somewhat longer-term view warns of potential toward CAD1.08. Today is also the first anniversary of the Bank of Japan's "Qualitative and Quantitative Easing" policy. The effectiveness of it remains an open question, although the yen has fallen,and the stock market has risen. Most observers included those Japanese businesses participating in the Tankan survey, do not expect it to achieve its 2% inflation target. In addition, it is not spurring the increase in domestic investment that had been expected. Nor are base wages rising. With the BOJ buying so many JGBS, there is beginning to be more concerned about the shortage of government bonds as collateral, which are similar to the distortions seen in the US. Over the past seven sessions, the dollar has risen from near JPY101.70, the middle of the February and March trading range to test the JPY104 area yesterday and today, which is the best level since late-January. Behind the yen's weakness, we suspect its use as a funding currency on ideas 1) geopolitical risks have subsided; 2) there is not real risk of tighter monetary policies over the next 6-9 months; 3) US economy is likely to strengthen and US bond yields have risen in anticipation. The New Zealand dollar has eclipsed the yen as weakest of the major currencies over the past five sessions, falling 1.4% (vs. 1.0%). This seems to be more a function of positioning as there has been little data and the Kiwi was at multi-year highs at the start of the week. The key reversal on Tuesday coupled with the continued decline in milk prices, its key export, began squeezing out longs after a 4.8% rally from early February through early April. |
Opponents of natural-gas exports have it all wrong
|
Americans opposed to the export of U.S. natural gas give many reasons for their position. But almost all of them are wrong. The problem is that people underestimate the amount of this country’s natural gas and the potential effect exports could have on the world market. Russia has swallowed parts of Georgia and Ukraine. No one is proposing that America send soldiers to defend those countries, even though we guaranteed Ukraine’s sovereignty in 1994 under the Budapest Memorandum. Instead, we can help our allies by diminishing Russia’s economic power over them. And that power rests on oil and gas. America is overtaking Russia as the world’s largest oil and gas producer, and we could be exporting natural gas abroad, cutting into Russia’s markets. Two dozen applications to export natural gas, some dating to 2011 and 2012, are awaiting approval by the Energy Department. Potential exporters face political barriers because many believe the U.S. should keep all its natural gas rather than export it. Here are four reasons for not exporting natural gas, and why they are wrong. Myth 1: Exporting natural gas will increase prices. According to Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey, exporting natural gas will increase prices by $2.50 per thousand cubic feet. He said in a press release: “U.S. energy consumers could be facing as much as $62 billion per year in higher energy costs as a direct result of exporting.” That is misguided because America has a massive capacity to expand natural gas. Over the past decade, exports have increased and prices have declined. That is because American withdrawals of natural gas have grown from 24 trillion cubic feet to 30 trillion cubic feet. In 2013, about 15% of natural gas withdrawals were not marketed. This amounted to 4.5 trillion cubic feet per day, most of which was wasted. Exporting 15% of natural gas would not raise prices substantially. Natural gas exports will not harm U.S. manufacturing’s comparative advantage in cheap energy. Natural gas will still be less expensive here than abroad because it is costly to transport. Energy-intensive multinationals will still face a cost advantage locating in the U.S. Yet, foreign consumers will benefit from our exports, which, even with transportation costs, will be less expensive than what they are now paying Russia. Drilling efficiency has substantially increased over the past seven years. Productivity of oil and natural gas wells is increasing across many places in the U.S. because horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing are becoming more precise and efficient. Drilling activity in U.S. shale is generally producing more oil and natural gas than in the past. For example, each drilling rig in the Eagle Ford Shale will contribute 400 barrels of oil per day more in April 2014 than it would have in the same formation in January 2007, an increase of over 800 percent. |
| With increased natural gas exports, more people would be employed in oil and gas production and transportation. Over 1.1 million people are already directly employed and about 9 million are indirectly employed in the sector, the vast majority from small and mid-size companies. Myth 2: Actions today won’t increase exports until it is too late. There is no point in exporting natural gas, according to naysayers, because we do not have the infrastructure in place. To export gas, we need more pipelines to get gas to shipping terminals as well as more shipping terminals. That could take as much as five years. However, that disregards the role of expectations. Announcements about our intentions to build infrastructure to export send signals to futures markets, which affect prices today. Russian President Vladimir Putin is watching our intentions carefully. |  |
Keane - Won't Be Broken
“music removes dust from the things of everyday life” |
Won't Be Broken"
I've got a feeling in my gut there’s more than this
More than I’ve heard, and more than you’re telling One day, we’re gonna burst right out of here Get out of this town, not know where we’re heading You count on luck, somehow it won’t add up And what you have, just has to be enough I feel knocked down but I won’t be broken, I won’t be broken My spirit’s reeling, but my arms are open, I won’t be broken And straining at the least you’d be a better man But each time I try to climb I start sliding Some days I think someone’s trying to keep me down But no it’s just my own fear that I’m fighting I need you now like I never did I need something that only you can give I feel knocked down but I won’t be broken, I won’t be broken My spirit’s reeling, but my arms are open, I won’t be broken You count on luck, somehow it won’t add up And what you have, just has to be enough I feel knocked down but I won’t be broken, I won’t be broken My spirit’s reeling, but my arms are open, I won’t be broken Got a feeling someday you and I- you're gonna blow this town wide open Got a hunger snapping at my heels, my mind that can't be changed- the wheel That won’t be broken |
Control your risk with simple and winning rules – SuperStocks trading signals for 4 April
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