Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Bursting Bernanke's bubble

by SoberLook

The last time we discussed the Credit Suisse Global Risk Appetite Index, it was headed for "euphoria" (see this post from May 21). Around May 22 something changed, and it was all downhill from there.

Source: Credit Suisse

It was Bernanke's first hawkish statement.

May 22; Bernanke: - We’re trying to make an assessment of whether or not we have seen real and sustainable progress in the labor market outlook. If we see continued improvement and we have confidence that that is going to be sustained, then we could in -- in the next few meetings -- we could take a step down in our pace of purchases.

Intentionally or not, the Chairman burst the market bubble just before it hit "euphoria". It was clear that the Fed was becoming concerned about froth forming in fixed income markets (Bernanke spoke about it - see this post). It was time to end it.
The unfortunate outcome of this action however is that it remains unclear whether the economy would have been better off if QE3 was never launched at all. The next 12 months will be filled with uncertainties about the exit timing, rising rates, and shaky credit markets. Anecdotal evidence suggests that some banks are becoming jittery about growing their balance sheets in this environment. As a result, loan growth is already slowing. That can't be good for business growth and hiring. When the dust settles, the economy may end up being in worse shape than it would have been if the Fed left it alone in August of 2012.

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Where’s Benjamin?

By tothetick

The Federal Reserve has had $1.2 million swiped from a flight somewhere between Switzerland, the land of secret banking, and New York City. Now, in the ranking of thefts that have taken place in history, this one seems like it is rather untimely! Has anybody seen Ben Bernanke lately? What’s even better is that the bills were $100 denominations. Call it what you will, it’s a Benjamin, isn’t it! Benjamin Franklin, of course!

The smackers were swiped from somewhere and the FBI is now investigating. They should probably have no trouble in finding the culprit. In fact, judging but what we know about the National Security Agency and Edward Snowden now, they probably could have found the guilty party even before the dirty deed had been done. Even before the guy had thought of doing the dirty deed, as a matter of fact!

Benjamin: $100

Benjamin: $100

You can just imagine some guy running off with the swag bag thinking that he has got his own back on the Federal Reserve. Apparently the $100-bills were winging their way to New York City from a bank in Zurich. They were to be delivered to the Federal Reserve and exchanged for new $100 bills (probably hot off the printing presses of QE). Then, they were going to be sent to a bank somewhere either in New Jersey or in New York. The bank isn’t known for the moment and the Federal Reserve declined to comment. Best answer really. When the going gets tough, keep schtum. My lips are sealed. Opening your mouth just gets you into more trouble, these days, anyhow.

Swiss-International-Air-Lines Flight 17 arrived at John F. Kennedy International Airport on Saturday in the afternoon. So, somebody has been living the good life since Saturday night, then! Has that guy sitting across the office to you not been in since Saturday?

It’s unknown at the present time if the shipment went missing in Zurich or in New York. The FBI should blame the Swiss though as they are responsible for everything that is to do with money-trouble, aren’t they? But, according to airport authorities the surveillance at Zurich airport is more stringent than at JFK. So, we shall just have to wait on the investigation report from the FBI.

Somebody will be spending the spondoolies this week as fast as if it were going out of fashion. But, hold on for a minute. The Dollar is going out of fashion, isn’t it? We’ve had too much of it lately, and we know how the saying goes: ‘too much of a good thing…”. It certainly can do a great deal of harm, can’t it?

There have been some other great capers in time. Back in 1990 in Los Angeles, there was the rather unknown case of the Great Manhole Robbery. The Manhole Men went round downtown LA swiping the manhole covers from the roads. They ended up stealing 300 of the things and sold them on to scrap-metal dealers for $6 apiece. Had they had any brains they would have got just about thirty times that much money if they had collected soda cans. Admitted, it would have taken longer to get the same weight. Maybe the same could be said for the person that knocked off the $1.2 million on that flight. Didn’t he know he could have got thirty times as much if he had collected soda cans instead of those $100-bills? Everybody knows that the Dollar is only good for one thing, now.

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Dollar Bulls Still in Charge

by Marc to Market

The US dollar is firm against most of the major currencies today. There seems no fresh impetus behind its rise. Global capital markets have continued to stabilize, with most equity and bond markets higher. Money market rates in China have slipped now for the fourth day running.

The euro's corrective upticks were brief and shallow, after hitting what appears to be a wall at $1.3150. The single currency has been sold to new lows for the moves today. While there may be some psychological support near $1.30, we see the near-term risk extending toward $1.2975.

The euro has not traded below $1.30 since the start of the month. The two main talking points today are ECB's President Draghi's pledge that the central bank is ready to act if needed and a Financial Times story warning that Italy faces significant losses related to several derivative products it used to manage its debt. Yet, we note that Draghi's comments are not new and Italian bonds are continuing to recover from their recent slide, with the benchmark 2-10 year benchmark yields off 8-10 bp.

The yen is firm, whereas JGBs and the Nikkei traded heavily. The Nikkei lost 1% today, with technology and health care sectors offering the largest drag. The 1 bp rise in the 10-year JGB yield is inconsequential and leaves the yield in the 0.80%-0.90% range that has confined yields since mid-May with a few exceptions. The dollar initially rose in Asia, through yesterday's highs to reach JPY98.25 where it met fresh selling by Japanese accounts. Dollar support is seen in the JPY96.80-JPY97.20 area.

After posting a potential key reversal day on Monday, the Australian dollar disappointed yesterday with the lack of follow through gains. New buying has emerged and it is the strongest of the major currencies today, gaining about 0.4% against the firm greenback. Never quite being able to quell angst within the Labor Party, Prime Minister Gillard bowed to pressures and called for a leadership vote. Former prime minister Rudd defeated her and now will be lead the party into the September election. Recall that Gillard had led a "palace coup" against Rudd three years ago.

Revisions to Q1 US GDP today are not very material to the outlook for policy. There are two issues that many are wrestling with. First, according to the latest Fed forecasts, 13 of the 19 members see Fed funds at 1% of higher in 2015. This was more aggressive than the market had been priced. While much of the post-FOMC adjustment has to do with positioning and less to do with fundamental models fair value, the market is still trying to digest the implications. Second, again, flows and momentum in thinner traders markets are playing a role, but the 10-year break-even is below 2% and this has been a rare occurrence post-Lehman. The two times inflation expectations were this low, it coincided with the initiation of QE-related purchases.

Lastly, in the emerging market space we note that after the Brazilian real hit four-year lows yesterday, the central bank announced it would eliminate the reserves required on short dollar positions held by local banks as of July 1. In 2011, to dampen the upward pressure on the real, the central bank required banks to deposit in a non-interest bearing account 60% of the short dollar position in excess of $3 bln. Separately, and unrelated, Taiwan, which has seen foreign investors sell $4.2 bln of its equities this month alone (completely reversing the inflows in the Jan-May period), announced it would cut the capital gains tax on sales of more than NT$1 bln to 0.1% from 2.25%.

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Orange juice price falls squeeze Brazilian growers

by Agrimoney.com

It is not only Brazil's coffee producers which are feeling the pinch from a drop in prices of their commodity.

Orange growers in the top producing country are ripping up groves to plant soybeans or sugar cane in face of poor returns, sapped by low prices of fruit and juice, which plunged 4% in New York on Tuesday on data showing a slide in US consumption to an 11-year low.

Disease - notably citrus greening, a bacterial infection which causes yield loss and tree death – encouraged by a reluctance by producers to invest in fertilizers and sprays, is also hurting output.

Sources reported that "many growers did not receive fair prices last year, which resulted in poor crop management", US Department of Agriculture staff in Brasilia said.

"Greening has become more and more a burden to producers."

'Does not pay production costs'

The setbacks have already prompted tree losses running at more than 2m a month from overall citrus groves in Sao Paulo, the top Brazilian orange-growing state, reducing the tree count to 213.7m, according to official data.

About half the losses were attributed to the removal of greening-infected plants.

And a further drop looks on its way, with many long-term contracts between juice processors and orange growers up for renewal, at a time of poor prices, but rising production costs.

"A significant number of growers report that they will abandon the activity, at least partially, if the orange processors do not show interest for their groves during the upcoming crop," the USDA staff said, noting that prospects for growers of the Hamlin variety had in particular been "undermined again".

"Contacts report that some processors have offered R$ 6.80 per box of Hamlin and R$7.00-8.00 per box for the Pera variety, which does not pay production costs roughly estimated at R$8-12 per box by different sources."

Production drops

Nor does Brazil's government appear as enthusiastic to support orange producers as it has been in coffee.

Antonio Andrade, Brazil's agriculture minister, on Tuesday said he would ask the country's monetary policy council to approve R$390m ($175m) to help underpin coffee prices during harvest, in addition to a R$3.16bn ($1.45bn) support package unveiled earlier this month.

The government, which last year spend more than $64m backing orange values, "has not indicated any interest to launch price support programmes for the upcoming [orange] crop", the USDA bureau said.

The bureau forecast Brazil's orange grove area tumbling by 60,000 hectares to 740,000 hectares in the marketing year beginning next month.

Orange output will fall by 19.2% to 16.6m tonnes.

As for orange juice, which swallows up most of the harvest, Brazil's production will decline by 20% to 1.0m tonnes, a bigger drop than that seen in official USDA data, which pegs output at 1.26m tonnes.

Futures tumble

Prices paid to orange producers fell below R$6.00 per 40.8 kilogramme box in the second half of last year, down from levels above R$12 per box in March and April.

Values have been undermined by a tumble in prices of orange juice itself from a record high of 226.95 cents a pound in New York in January last year.

The latest rally, prompted by the spread of greening in Florida, the top US citrus-producing state, which took prices above 150 cents a pound for the first time in more than a year, has foundered this month on soft demand and low concerns over the prospect of a grove-damaging hurricane.

World demand has been hurt both by the world economic crisis, which has prompted consumers to seek cheaper drinks, and a move away on health grounds from beverages seen as having high sugar contents.

New York orange juice prices on Tuesday slumped 4.4% to 134.20 cents a pound, for September delivery, after official data showed US retail sales of juice falling 1.3% to 39.89m gallons (151m litres) in the four weeks to June 8, at a time of growing stockpiles of refrigerated supplies.

That was the weakest consumption figure since January 2002, according to the Florida Department of Citrus.

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Death by Leverage

By Paul Price

America’s national debt exceeded $15 trillion [with a T] for the first time on November 15, 2011. Deficit spending since then has pushed the total national debt closer to $17 trillion.

National Debt as of May 31, 2013

An official population of 316,110,225 (6-23-13) means every man, woman and child in America now owes $52,953 plus future interest costs.

US population June 23, 2013

It should be noted that the nearly $17T debt does not include the enormous unfunded liabilities for Social Security, Medicaid/Medicare and federal pensions, or the potentially crippling burdens of ObamaCare.

"The U.S. national debt comes out to about $16 trillion today [Nov., 2012]. That's something. But it's nothing compared to the extra $87 trillion in unfunded liabilities to Social Security, Medicare, and federal pensions. Here's how that works. If you add up all of the U.S. government's promises to pay retirement and health care benefits for the next 75 years and subtract the projected tax revenue dedicated to those programs over the next 75 years, there is a gap. A $87 trillion gap -- in addition to a $16 billion hole.

"'Why haven't Americans heard about the titanic $86.8 trillion liability from these programs?' Chris Box and Bill Archer ask in the Wall Street Journal. The authors blame the U.S. government for using shoddy accounting and for misleading the American public on their finances..." (Is Our Debt Burden Really $100 Trillion?, by Derek Thompson, The Atlantic.)

Incremental debt is being added at an unprecedented rate. Including future promises that have not come due yet, the total unfunded liability number is over five times higher.

Pace of Debt chart

The Treasury bond auction market reveals nothing about the true state of interest rates (the cost of borrowing) as shill bids from the Fed have sucked up virtually all net government bond issuance this year.

Europe is already in recession and drowning in debt. There are no solutions on the horizon. The idea that the Fed will cut back on money printing/bond buying programs is fantasy. The politically expedient solution is for quantitative easing (QE) to continue or even expand, both in the U.S. and abroad.

The only alternative is the outright confiscation of wealth. That technique was beta-tested just months ago in Cyprus.

Bubble valuations currently reside in the fixed income arena, and bonds appear riskier than stocks. Shares of highly levered companies have benefited from artificially low rates by refinancing old debt. They have also borrowed to pay for massive share buyback programs. Those times may be coming to an end.

Bond Bubble     June 21, 2013

Holders of long-term bonds are taking huge risks. A 1% rise at the long end of the yield curve could send 30-year bond prices down 17%. A 2% increase could drop principal values much more. Years of coupon payments could be wiped out on a total return basis.

Long maturity corporate paper issued just weeks ago as part of Apple’s (AAPL) $15 billion debt offering have already been marked down by over 10%.

A credit crunch, or a freeze, may be brewing that could be worse than what we saw in 2008. (A crunch implies credit is available at a high price. A freeze means it's nearly impossible to borrow at any price.) While it's a fool's game to try to predict the timing, we should be preparing.

Preparing for a credit crunch or freeze

Risk in the equity market is substantially lower than risk in fixed income. Especially compared to alternative investment vehicles, stocks are not overpriced (see Think stocks are overpriced? Think again and  In Love with TINA).

Avoid bonds. But if you must keep any fixed income vehicles, be sure they have short maturities.

Make sure companies you own have enough predictable cash flow to service both bond interest payments and principal payments coming due within the next few years. 2008 taught us to avoid highly leveraged companies. When credit freezes, even healthier firms with maturing debt can be forced to issue highly dilutive shares or descend rapidly into bankruptcy.

Even top-rated firms can be forced into coercive terms if they need to refinance when money is tight. For instance, in 2008, Berkshire Hathaway extracted 10% interest plus warrants from Goldman Sachs, GE and others. The next cycle could lead to even more punitive terms.

Check balance sheet data by consulting subscription services such as Value Line, S&P or Morningstar. Free sites like Yahoo Finance and MSN MoneyCentral also offer access to up-to-date financial information. A firm that cannot meet its bond obligations is at the mercy of its lenders.

Stick with shares of dominant companies with solid balance sheets. I favor the companies included in our Virtual Value Portfolio, especially those still trading at prices close to where we initially added shares. 

Avoid margin. Debt-free portfolios can wait out temporary storms. They allow for the possibility to add to your holdings after major selloffs.

Adapted from this week's Market Shadows' newsletter, The Banker Who Was God (6-23-13).

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Italy Embroiled In Latest Derivative Loss Fiasco Through Another Mario Draghi-Headed Scandal

by Tyler Durden

It was roughly four years ago when details surrounding such Goldman SPV deals as Titlos first emerged, that it became clear how for over a decade, using deliberately masking transactions such as currency swaps, Greece had managed to fool the Eurozone into believing its economy was doing far better, and its debt load was far lower than it actually was in order to comply with the Maastricht treaty's entrance requirements.

That this happened with the implicit and explicit knowledge of such European and Goldman "luminaries" as Helmut Kohl and Mario Draghi did not help Europe's credibility.

As for the Pandora's Box that was opened following the disclosure of just how ugly the unvarnished truth in Europe is, following the Greek disclosure, leading to the general realization that the European experiment has failed and it is now only a matter of time before its final unwind, any comment here is unnecessary - ths has been widely discussed here and elsewhere over the past several years.

Now it is Italy's turn.

Overnight, the FT reported that "Italy risks potential losses of billions of euros on derivatives contracts it restructured at the height of the eurozone crisis, according to a confidential report by the Rome Treasury that sheds more light on the financial tactics that enabled the debt-laden country to enter the euro in 1999. A 29-page report by the Treasury, obtained by the Financial Times, details Italy’s debt transactions and exposure in the first half of 2012, including the restructuring of eight derivatives contracts with foreign banks with a total notional value of €31.7bn."

What was the point of these derivative contracts? The same as in Greece: to transform reality and make it mora palatable: "... before and just after Italy entered the euro, Rome was flattering its accounts by taking upfront payments from banks in order to meet the deficit targets set by the EU for joining the first wave of 11 countries that adopted the euro in 1999.  Italy had a budget deficit of 7.7 per cent in 1995. By 1998, the crucial year for approval of its euro membership, this had been reduced to 2.7 per cent, by far the largest drop among the Euro 11. In the same period tax receipts increased marginally and government spending as a proportion of GDP fell only slightly."

The chronology of events is presented below:

And while Mario Draghi managed to evade serious inquiry following his role as head of the Bank of Italy at a time when Monte Paschi was engaging in various swap transactions as reported previously, just as he managed to evade scrutiny in his role as a Goldman banker before that, when he was instrumental to aiding and abetting Greece in its economic embellishment efforts (even as Goldman was being paid generously for its "advice") when in June of 2012 the ECB outright refused to respond to Bloomberg's FOIA request on the central bank's Greek-ECB-Goldman currency swaps, Mario the untouchable, may finally be called to task: after all he was once again instrumental in covering up yet another financial crime this time as director-general of the Italian Treasury!

Only a handful of Italian officials, past and present, are aware of the full picture, according to bankers and government sources. The senior government official who spoke to the Financial Times and the experts consulted said the restructured contracts in the 2012 Treasury report included derivatives taken out when Italy was trying to meet tough financial criteria for the 1999 entry into the euro.

Mario Draghi, now head of the European Central Bank, was director-general of the Italian Treasury at the time, working with Vincenzo La Via, then head of the debt department, and Ms Cannata, then a senior official involved with debt and deficit accounting. Mr La Via left the Treasury in 2000 and returned as its director-general in May 2012 – with the backing of Mr Draghi, according to Italian officials.

An ECB spokesman declined to comment on the bank’s knowledge of Italy’s potential exposure to derivatives losses or on Mr Draghi’s role in approving derivatives contracts in the 1990s before he joined Goldman Sachs International in 2002.

Of course the ECB will decline to comment: doing so would open up the can of worms of just how much alleged criminal activity Europe's central bank may have engaged in for its own benefit, for the benefit of members such as the Bank of Italy, and of course, for the benefit of such "financial advisors" as Goldman Sachs. After all let's not forget that we are now into the fourth year of the Fed's investigation into Goldman's role as facilitator of Greek currency swaps. That's right: we remember, and we are still holding our breath.

To summarize:

  • Mario Draghi, complicit and aware of the Greek currency swap arrangement, as a member of Goldman Sachs in the mid-2000s.
  • Mario Draghi, complicit and aware of various Monte Paschi derivative deals, as head of the Bank of Italy.
  • Mario Draghi, complicit and aware in rejecting Bloomberg's FOIA requests that would have blown all of these scandals wide into the open, as current head of the ECB.
  • And now, Mario Draghi, complicit and aware of at least one (and likely many) Italian window dressing derivative deals with one or more US investment banks, as Director-General of the Italian Treasury.

Just where does Mario Draghi's rabbit hole of endless scandals finally end?

Still, the ability to push yet another Draghi-centered scandal under the rug may be impossible especially if Italy suffers billions in losses on this latest derivative fiasco:

While the report leaves out crucial details and appears intended not to give a full picture of Italy’s potential losses, experts who examined it told the Financial Times the restructuring allowed the cash-strapped Treasury to stagger payments owed to foreign banks over a longer period but, in some cases, at more disadvantageous terms for Italy.

In April police of the Guardia di Finanza visited the offices of Maria Cannata, head of the Treasury’s debt management agency, asking for more information on the report drafted by the agency, including details of the original derivatives contracts, the senior official said.

The leaking of the 2012 Treasury report, which was also obtained by La Repubblica, the Italian newspaper, is likely to fuel debate over Italy’s exposure to derivatives. It comes at a time when markets have begun to exhibit new nervousness with the cost of borrowing rising sharply recently for eurozone peripheral countries like Italy.

Needless to say the last thing the scandal-prone country, whose most popular politician was just sentenced to 7 years in jail for underage sex, is yet another disclosure that its financial system has been lying, and is about to suffer billions in cash outflow for legacy liabilities. Liabilities, whose total damage may be in the tens of billions:

The report does not specify the potential losses Italy faces on the restructured contracts. But three independent experts consulted by the FT calculated the losses based on market prices on June 20 and concluded the Treasury was facing a potential loss at that moment of about €8bn, a surprisingly high figure based on a notional value of €31.7bn.

Italy does not disclose its total potential exposure to its derivatives trades. The experts contacted by the FT, who declined to be named, noted that the report revealed just a six-month snapshot on a limited number of restructured contracts.

And with derivatives being zero sum (unless there is a counterparty failure in the collateral chain in which case everyone loses), Italy's loss was someone else's gain. In this case Morgan Stanley (among others):

Early last year Italy was prompted to reveal by regulatory filings made by Morgan Stanley that it had paid the US investment bank €2.57bn after the bank exercised a break clause on derivatives contracts involving interest rate swaps and swap options agreed with Italy in 1994.

An official report presented to parliament in March 2012 found that Morgan Stanley was the only counterparty to have such a break clause with Italy and disclosed, for the first time, that the Treasury held derivatives contracts to hedge some €160bn of debt, almost 10 per cent of state bonds in circulation.

The Bloomberg News agency calculated at the time, based on regulatory filings, that Italy had lost more than $31bn on its derivatives at then market values.

In the past, the orders to push back investigations into such illegal, shady dealings most certainly came not only from the very top Italian power echelons, but from the ECB, and ultimately, banks like Goldman. The question is: will Italy's state auditors, the Corte dei Conti, finally stand up for the people and expose the corruption, and the people behind the billions in soon to be revealed losses:

Releasing its own report in February on the state accounts for 2012, Salvatore Nottola, prosecutor-general of the Corte dei Conti, noted that “the damage done to the state’s income constituted by the negative outcomes of derivatives contracts is particularly critical and delicate”.

The Corte dei Conti declined to comment on the report and the finance police did not respond to inquiries. A finance ministry spokesman confirmed the existence of the report but declined to comment on its contents and possible losses, citing commercial confidentiality. He would not comment on requests made by the police to Ms Cannata.

Gustavo Piga, an Italian economics professor, caused a storm in 2001 when he obtained one such derivatives contract taken out in 1996 and accused EU countries of “window-dressing” their accounts. Mr Piga did not identify the country nor the bank involved but they have since been named in the media as Italy and JPMorgan.

“Derivatives are a very useful instrument,” Mr Piga wrote. “They just become bad if they’re used to window-dress accounts,” he said, accusing the unnamed country of disregarding standard derivatives contracts in order to delay until a later date its debt interest payments.

And speaking of openness, transparency, and the lack thereof, none of the above is news. At least not to the one person most instrumental for ushering in the failed European monetary experiment: Germany's Helmut Kohl.

Last year Der Spiegel, a German magazine, obtained official documents which it said demonstrated that in 1998 Helmut Kohl, then chancellor, decided for political reasons to ignore warnings from his experts that Italy was believed to be “dressing” up its accounts and would not meet the Maastricht treaty criteria for entry, including a budget deficit less than 3 per cent. Italian officials, including former finance minister Giulio Tremonti, have said the EU was aware and approved of Italy’s use of derivatives in the build-up to euro entry.

Not surprising considering in his own words, "he acted like a dictator to bring in the euro." And considering that Europeans have gladly ceded all their rights and powers to live in a dictatorial pipe-dream for the past decade, and which has since exploded into the worst depressionary nightmare the "developed" world has ever known, perhaps all those 20%, 30% and more unemployed should look in the mirror when deciding whom to blame for their plight.

But don't worry - the Goldmans, the Mario Draghis, the Cannatas, and the Berlusconis of the world are doing perfectly well, thank you, even as Greek and Spanish youth unemployment is now in the 60% range. Which is roughly just as one would expect of every neo-feudal, dictatorial regime.

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