Wednesday, June 29, 2011

What to Look for in the June 30 Reports

By: AgWeb.com Editors

On Thursday, June 30 at 7:30 a.m., USDA will release its planted acreage report and quarterly stocks estimates. These reports will provide vital market information, as they will detail the actual amount of crop acres planted following the widespread planting delays earlier this year.

On Thursday morning, AgWeb will highlight all of the important report data, as well as provide analysis about what the numbers mean for you.
 
What should you expect in the report? Here is some pre-report commentary to ponder.
 
Wild Week for Corn
As the first delivery date looms, speculators jump out of the July market, sending futures prices spiraling down.
The near completion of planting, except for double-cropped soybeans, and less threatening weather may reduce crop concerns for now, resulting in some modest price weakness. The June 30 USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports will provide additional price direction.
 
A large number of factors have contributed to the higher prices of corn and other commodities over the past year. The beginning of the price increase can be traced to the USDA's forecast of 2010 corn planted acreage and the estimate of June 1 corn stocks released on June 30, 2010, said University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good.
 
After one of the slowest planting seasons on record, the U.S. corn crop is finally in the ground. The abnormal planting progress of the last few months has sent the corn market on a crazy roller coaster ride.
 
Corn futures dropped significantly as contract highs were reached last week and demand fears took over, says Jerry Gulke.
 
Prices of corn, soybeans and wheat continue to move erratically, reflecting both new information and the lack of some information, said a University of Illinois agricultural economist.

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Morning markets: corn regains $7 amid caution ahead of data

by Agrimoney.com

Welcome back, $7-a-bushel corn.
Actually, it was only a fleeting visit, with Chicago's July contract retreating from an early top of $7.05 ¼ a bushel to stand at $6.99 a bushel by 08:00 GMT (07:00 UK time), still up 2.3% on the day.
But such gains were symptomatic of a market in which, for the next day or so, may prove less fertile for bears, given the prospect on Thursday of reports on US grain stocks and spring sowings, data viewed in Chicago as among the most crucial of the year.
"All of a sudden people do care what the acreage and stocks data might say. What if they're bullish?" Mike Mawdsley at Market 1 said, noting that short investors in corn had become a "tad nervous".
There are, after all, widespread rumours of acreage losses above 6m acres in North Dakota alone. The state was struck by excessively wet spring planting conditions.
Greek vote
Nerves over the statistics were compounded by a greater appetite for riskier assets, as expectations grew that Greece's parliament will, later on Wednesday, approve austerity measures, collect a E12bn rescue package, and take the weight of its debt burden off its feet, at least for now.
Tokyo shares continued the round of rises on stock markets which saw the Dow Jones industrial average close up 1.2% last night. Tokyo's Nikkei index gained 1.5% to end at a seven-week high.
The dollar eased a touch, underpinning prices of dollar-denominated assets such as copper, which posted small gains, and New York crude, ditto.
And some crop fundamentals were going the way of bulls too, with cold weather in Brazil seen as a setback to safrinha, or second-crop, corn, much of which has already been beset by overly dry conditions.
Investors also continued to show some surprise at the deterioration in the condition of US corn, soybean and wheat crops, evident in official data out late on Monday.
In soybeans, for instance, "the trade has been slow to come to terms with the potential deterioration of the crop due to excessively wet conditions", Brian Henry at Benson Quinn Commodities said.
Better weather
OK, not everything was looking quite positive for prices.
Paris-based Agritel noted that "in Europe, the weather is expected to improve in the coming days, thus allowing harvesting to resume after the stormy episodes of the last days".
It added that harvest results had so far shown yields varying "greatly from one region to another, with positive surprises in some cases, but also severe damage in the most [spring drought] affected areas such as Picardy and Charentes" in France.
At Phillip Futures, Lynette Tan noted that the "northern US Plains are seen warming up over next few days, which are beneficial for crops.
"The southern Plains are also dry, which is beneficial for the ongoing harvest of hard red winter wheat."
'Little in the way of support'
And Rabobank waved a cautious word at investors, saying that, while it did not rule out a price spike following Thursday's US reports, "short-term momentum remains to the downside".
For wheat especially, the sell-off until Tuesday had caused a "lot of technical damage to the charts", and meant there "appears to be little in the way of support until prices fall to a level between $5.75-6.00 a bushel" in Chicago.
In fact, Chicago wheat for July was trading 1.6% higher at $6.50 ¼ bushel, with the better-traded September lot up 1.1% at $6.79 ¼ a bushel.
Soybeans, which suffered less of a sell-off earlier in the month, gained 0.4% to $13.36 ½ a bushel for July and 0.6% to $13.27 ¼ a bushel for the new crop November contract.
'Demand rising sharply'
The revival was echoed on many other markets too, with palm oil jumping 1.5% to 3,109 ringgit a tonne in Kuala Lumpur, for the benchmark September lot, putting a bit more distance between itself and an eight-month low of 3,045 ringgit a tonne hit on Tuesday.
Oil World helped with comment noting the boost to demand for the vegetable oil provided by lower prices.
"Demand for palm oil is currently increasing sharply, especially from buyers preparing for the Ramadan and other festivities," the analysis group said.
"In particular, palm oil import demand from India will rise pronouncedly in the near-to-medium term owning to depleted stocks and declining production."
Rubber bounces
In Tokyo, rubber added 3.1% to 357.90 yen a kilogramme for the benchmark December contract, helped by reports of a weak seasonal uptick in production.
"According to Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, the post-wintering supply situation could be due to rains, damage due to overtapping of trees to take advantage of abnormally higher prices earlier in the year and ageing trees," Ker Chung Yang at Phillip Futures said.


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Coffee and corn provoke doubts over Brazilian data

by Agrimoney.com

Are Brazilian crop data suspect too?
China's official agriculture commodity data have long been viewed with suspicion, misgivings borne out by huge revisions earlier this month to US government estimates for China's corn dynamics.
And doubts over Russian statistics, and that grain supplies were cut as low as had been reported by last year's drought, appear to have been borne out by the huge tonnages of wheat being reported at Black Sea ports ready for export. Agrimoney.com has heard trade estimates of 7m-8m tonnes of old crop grain alone needing to find a buyer.
Now Brazil's data is coming under the microscope after official statisticians pegged corn yields for the winter, second or so-called safrinha crop well above levels that farmers are reporting.
Farmers vs officials
Conab, Brazil's official crop bureau, has pegged yields of safrinha, or winter corn, in the top producing state of Mato Grosso as falling only 3.5% this year, leading a crop of 7.0m tonnes.
However, Mato Grosso farmers are pegging losses as far bigger, up to one-half, after a bet on a late onset of the dry season turned wrong.
Many Mato Grosso growers opted to plant safrinha corn late, well beyond the ideal sowing window, after a late soybean harvest kept fields tied up with sthttp://www.agrimoney.com/news/coffee-and-corn-provoke-doubts-over-brazilian-data--3309.htmlanding crop far longer than had been expected.
Farmers were encouraged by revisions to dates for which they were eligible to claim on insurance policies.
'Definite difference of opinion'
"There is a definite difference of opinion concerning how the early onset of dry weather has impacted the safrinha corn crop in Mato Grosso," Michael Cordonnier at Soybean and Corn Advisor said.
"The official institutions are much more optimistic concerning corn yields than are the farmers in the state."
Dr Cordonnier has pegged Brazil's 2010-11 corn crop, of which safrinha accounts for some 40%, at 53m tonnes, 3.7m tonnes lower than the Conab estimate.
The USDA has a 55m-tonne figure.
'Negative stocks'
Nor are these doubts over some Conab methodology a one-off.
In coffee, the bureau's has been consistently conservative – and perhaps overly so - on its coffee production data, to judge by comparisons with equivalents from USDA staff in the country.
"Historically, there has been a difference between our numbers and Conab's," an official US source told Agrimoney.com, saying the department's own in-country estimates were based on meetings with figures from throughout the industry.
Statistics from USDA attaches in Brazil "have been always consistent with the supply and demand spreadsheet - for example, ending stocks have never been negative in the end of the cycle", the source said.
"The same does not happen if you use Conab's number in a long-term data series."


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Brazil setbacks spur jump in coffee, sugar futures

by Agrimoney.com

Brazilian setbacks spurred jumps in prices of both sugar and coffee futures, which headed a better day for farm commodities after sell-offs of the last two weeks.
Crop futures were firm across the board on Tuesday, helped by improved appetite for risk assets which was also reflected in a decline in the dollar, which fell 0.5% against a basket of currencies.
Gains of 1% in Chicago grains were also spurred by a reluctance by investors to sell ahead of key reports on US grain inventories and sowings due on Thursday.
However, coffee added more than 2% in New York, on reports of frost in Brazil, where data showing surprisingly weal sugar output sent prices of the sweetener up 5% to a three-month high of 29.38 cents a pound at one point.
'Brazilian Clarence Beeks'
Unica, the cane industry group, said that sugar output in Brazil's Center South region - which produces some 90% of sugar in the top producing country – had fallen by 14% year on year in the second-half of June.
Crop prices as at 16:30 GMT
Sugar: 29.20 cents a pound, +5.0%, (New York)
Coffee: 256.75 cents a pound, +2.6%, (New York)
Corn: $6.68 a bushel, +1.1%, (Chicago)
Wheat: $6.31 ½ a bushel, +1.4%, (Chicago)
Prices for July contracts
Data two weeks ago had signalled that Brazilian output was recovering after a weak start blamed on wet weather.
The data confirmed market speculation of a bullish report, which prompted Nick Penney at Sucden Financial to note speculation of a "a Brazilian Clarence Beeks out there", a reference to the character in the film Trading Places who trades secret information on the orange juice market.
"There has been a great deal of short-covering. Telephone lines are buzzing with questions regarding delivery intentions against the July contract."
At Standard Chartered, Abah Ofon also noted, following a three-continents tour of investors, that sentiment was "particularly bullish" on sugar, in part because of the sweetener's use in making biofuels - and the prospect of the US removing tax perks on corn-based ethanol.
Cold talk
Coffee was spurred by reports of frosts in at least two parts of Parana.
Typically, frost damage hurts coffee plants by damaging leaves, so hindering trees ability to grow coffee cherries, meaning it is next year's harvest which would be most badly affected.
Indeed, coffee for July delivery next year rose 2.8% to 266.95 cents a pound, outpacing the 2.6% rise to 256.75 cents a pound in the soon-to-expire July 2011 lot.
Parana vs Minas
Brazilian frosts have a history of supporting coffee prices, notably after a 1975 freeze, which ultimately sent futures to a record high of 337.50 cents per pound. Prices rallied in 1979 too following frost.
However, many plantations have been moved to less frost-prone areas, such as Minas Gerais, since these events.
"It is when it gets cold in Minas that you start the real worrying," Jurgens Bauer at PitGuru said.
"They don't produce as much coffee in Parana, not like they used to."

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Sugar continues to lead rates

by Kimble Charting Solutions




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Five year yields ..

by Kimble Charting Solutions




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