Capitale Iniziale Minimo $ 50.000 / Minimum Account Size $ 50K
Durata media dei trades 6-7 Giorni / Avg Trades Duration 6-7 Days
Mercati su cui lavora il system / Used Markets
1 eMini S&P
1 eMini Russell
1 Gold
2 eMini Crude Oil
1 Euro Fx
1 T-Bond
Thursday, May 12, 2011
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Our Ninja System Is One Of The Best Trading Systems Of Strategy Runner!
Capitale Iniziale Minimo $ 50.000 / Minimum Account Size $ 50K
Durata media dei trades 6-7 Giorni / Avg Trades Duration 6-7 Days
Mercati su cui lavora il system / Used Markets
1 eMini S&P
1 eMini Russell
1 Gold
2 eMini Crude Oil
1 Euro Fx
1 T-Bond
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Investors Don’t Turn Out the Lights on Commodities Just Yet
By: Frank_Holmes
The prices for many commodities suffered the worst week in recent memory last week. Oil prices dipped below $100 per barrel, gold fell below $1,500 an ounce and silver gave back much of the past month’s gains by falling to the $35 an ounce level. The prices for other commodities such as sugar, tin, nickel, aluminum, lead and copper also pulled back.
Immediately, headlines on websites such as Marketwatch, Bloomberg and SmartMoney read “Has the Commodity Bubble Popped?” and “Imploding Commodities Complex.”
Is this the end? Has the great bull run for commodities come to an end?
In our opinion, not likely.
First of all, we wrote on April 24 that commodity prices were due for a pullback (Read: Don’t Fear a Pullback in Prices). Specifically, we pointed out that silver had wandered into “extreme” territory which exacerbated the reversal we saw this week.
On May 3 (before we saw the largest declines), BCA Research wrote “one look at the hyperbolic rise in silver prices should be sufficient to convince even a hardcore commodity bull that things are getting frothy.”
In fact, the silver trade had gotten so far ahead of itself, the iShares Silver Trust ETF was “the most highly traded security on the planet,” according to our friend Tom Lydon over at ETF Trends. Last week’s selloff was less of an end to the bull market and more a function of “stampeding speculators” (to borrow a line from Sarah Turner at Marketwatch) rushing for the exits.
But short-term speculators aren’t the only factor; last week’s strength in the U.S. dollar was just as much a facilitator of the price declines. The U.S. dollar found additional strength on Thursday after Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), said the ECB would not raise rates until after June. By week’s end, the U.S. dollar was up 2.5 percent for the week, a pretty big move.
In addition, we entered the month of May which has historically proven to be a weak and volatile period for commodities. With the Federal Reserve set to wind down its quantitative easing (QE2) program by the end of next month, it’s possible we could continue to see volatility for a little while.
Despite the selloff, commodities were still the year’s top performing asset class as of Thursday. You can see from the chart that the year-to-date return for commodities has far outpaced the return for foreign exchange, bonds and emerging markets.
Looking out on the horizon, very little has changed for the long-term bull case for commodities. The U.S. is still struggling to come up with a feasible solution to its multi-trillion dollar debt problem. Emerging markets are still seeing incremental increases in demand for nearly all commodities. And, the reserves for many commodities are still struggling to keep pace with this demand.
Essentially, what happened last week was more of a “technical correction” than a fundamental shift in the long-term dynamics for commodities and we’ve already begun this week with big gains for silver and crude oil prices.
The party’s not over for commodities, so don’t turn out the lights just yet. While it’s impossible to predict the future, we think in a month or two investors may look back and see this downdraft as a good buying opportunity.
COMEX Drops Nepalm Bomb on Silver, What Next for Precious Metals?
By: David_Banister
See the original article >>
What was I thinking trying to forecast a normal "wave 4" correction in Silver without the required insider information that the COMEX was going to raise margin/equity requirements four times in a week? My pullback silver low target of $40.10 was obliterated after two consecutive days of equity requirement increases early last week, knocking silver into the low 33's before it got off the mat and staggered around a bit. Gold followed right behind as margin calls and stop losses required over- zealous traders on the long end to liquidate everything they could find to avoid complete meltdown of their trading accounts.
That is all well and good, but now all of my subscribers want to know just one thing...what now? For starters, Silver had completed an A B C rally pattern from around $18.50 in late August to $49.90 about eight Fibonacci months later. I had written about that coming rally late last August with Silver at $18.73, so we were prepared for the opportunity. I even looked for long term targets as high as $45. That rally was pure crowd behavior in motion, and when you reach the extremes of a "C Wave" in optimism, the next leg down (Which I call the "D wave") is extremely difficult to predict. I trade A-B-C patterns all the time, looking for that imminent "C wave breakout", and last August I forecasted a huge move in Silver mostly because a very long B wave triangle had just about completed, and the powerful C wave rally was nigh.
Now that we ended that rally by touching the all time highs near $50 from 1980, it was clear we would have a corrective pattern, and the problem was trying to come up with a reasonable "Crowd Behavioral" bottom pivot forecast amidst the COMEX interfering. This D wave ended in catastrophe for those who were over exposed, or shall I say... "Greedy". You know what they say on Wall Street, Hogs get fat and pigs get slaughtered. Well, for those who want to dip their toe back in the water, here is the likely path going forward.
- I expect Silver to recover over several months and re-attack the $50 zone again.
- Silver will get past $50 by year end and probably reach $60 before the next strong correction.
- With three years left in the Gold and Silver bull cycle from 2001, there is a very good chance silver will be well north of $100 an ounce by 2014, but one week at a time.
I do not trade Silver or Gold futures, and never have... I just forecast direction and price as best as I can for my subscribers. Probably one of the reasons I've been lucky and accurate for many years is I have no bias, as I am not forecasting my own book... just what I see. Near term look for Silver to try to rally back to about $38 to $41.50 ranges, with another pullback to follow.
Gold should have bottomed at $1462 in what I call an "A wave" down, with the "B wave" currently bouncing to about $1520 if I'm right. Once this bounce is completed, I look for a soft pullback to $1489 or so, followed by a strong rally to re-test the $1577 highs. Gold should reach a minimal target of $1627 on this final 5th wave up from the January 1310 lows, with potential to spill higher than that.
Silver has tripped on itself for now, and Gold will probably move a tad smoother over the near term, but look for Silver to regain it's sprinting abilities this summer-fall and re-take the baton from Gold and continue it's out-performance.
US wheat sowings hit low, while corn seedings fly
by Agrimoney.com
Spring wheat planting slowed to its weakest pace since at least the early 1990s in the US, and to a trickle in Canada too, even as America's corn farmers – in one week - sowed an area equivalent to Denmark and Switzerland combined.
Just 22% of US spring wheat was in the ground as of Sunday thanks to the wet conditions which continue to dog northern areas. In North Dakota, the main spring wheat state, just 7% was seeded compared with an average of more than one-half by now.
The overall figure compared with 61% typically sown at this time, and was the lowest since at least 1994, the earliest year for which readily available US Department of Agriculture data are available.
Indeed, it fell behind the pace of 1997, which has been reported as setting a record slow pace, and when yields fell 15% to 29.9 bushels per acre.
In 1995, another slow year for plantings, the yield ended higher, at 32.2 bushels per acre, but below the 1990s average of more than 34 bushels per acre.
Late snows
The pace was even slower north of the border, where Canadian farmers have planted 3% of their overall spring crops, compared with 40% by now, following snowfalls of up to 25cm, or 10 inches, on some areas two weekends ago. On farms where moisture fell as rain, precipitation reached 5.0cm.
Rain and "moderate temperatures have combined to stymie the general commencement of seeding across the Prairies", the board said, adding that the poor sowing conditions were affecting "all western Canadian growing regions".
However, while weather looks set to remain poor for Manitoba and Saskatchewan, "a high pressure system may keep Alberta sunny throughout the week, which could prompt widespread and rapid seeding in that province".
'Second fastest on record'
The fate of spring wheat farmers contrasted with that of corn growers who, following a drier spell in much of the Corn Belt, lifting sowings to 40% of their intended crop as of Sunday.
The 27% of the crop sown in one week equates to an area of nearly 25m acres, or nearly 39,000 square miles – bigger than Hungary or South Korea.
The progress was well above trade estimates of seedings reaching aruond one-third complete, and saw farmers play catch up towards average rates.
"Iowa farmers made the most progress, jumping from 8% to 69% complete, the second fastest weekly pace behind 64% completed in one week in 1992," Kim Rugel at Benson Quinn Commodities said.
East vs west
And the progress was achieved despite wet weather continuing to hamper progress in eastern areas, with farmers in Indiana, Michigan and Ohio having less than 5%of their corn in the ground, compared with one-half typically by now.
"What is remarkable about this week's progress is that it was accomplished with basically no participation by eastern Corn Belt states," Steve Meyer at Paragon Economics said.
"Flying into Detroit International on Monday afternoon, it did not appear that eastern Michigan would catch up any time soon. There was a lot of water standing in fields."
The eastern Corn Belt is due to receive "periodic rain events" throughout this week, Benson Quinn added.
In the six-to-10 day forecast, weather models indicate "scattered showers with cool temperatures over the eastern Corn Belt, while the western Corn Belt and Plains stay dry", weather service WxRisk.com said.
Market Shakes Off a Rough Start to May
by Bespoke Investment Group
After a rough start to May where the S&P 500 declined in each of the first four trading days of the month, equities are back in rally mode. As of today's close, the S&P 500 is trading back at overbought levels, and only three sectors are not trading above their normal trading ranges. The sectors that are not participating, however, are noteworthy. While we have all come to expect Financials to underperform, the recent underperformance of Energy and Materials, which had been among the market's leaders, is indicative of the shift taking place in market leadership.
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