Saturday, January 29, 2011

(Reuters) Egypt riots knock Wall St to biggest drop in 6 months


(Reuters) - Stocks suffered their biggest one-day loss in nearly six months on Friday as anti-government rioting in Egypt prompted investors to flee to less risky assets to ride out the turmoil.
Increased instability in the Middle East drove up the CBOE Volatility Index .VIX, the stock market's fear gauge, as investors scrambled for protective positions.

"The market hates uncertainties, especially geopolitical ones, and based on how that shapes up throughout the weekend (in Egypt), next week's trading will be impacted," said Thomas Nyheim, portfolio manager for Christiana Bank & Trust Co in Greenville, Delaware.

Trading volume was the highest of the year at 9.97 billion shares on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, compared to last year's estimated daily average of 8.47 billion shares.

The market drop ended the Dow's eight-week winning streak and pushed the S&P 500 below its 14-day moving average for the first time in two months. Disappointing results from Amazon.com (AMZN.O) and Ford (F.N) further added to the gloom.

Developments in the Middle East could be a trigger for investors to sell at a time when many expected a correction after a market rally of about 18 percent since September.

"I think the next two to three weeks, the crisis in Egypt and potentially across the Middle East, might be an excuse for a big selloff of 5 to 10 percent," said Keith Wirtz, president and chief investment officer at Fifth Third Asset Management in Cincinnati, Ohio.

Nasdaq quotations for its main stock indexes suffered an outage of nearly one hour at the open, causing confusion among traders. Nasdaq OMX Group (NDAQ.O) blamed a glitch with its global index data service.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI ended down 166.13 points, or 1.39 percent, at 11,823.70. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was down 23.20 points, or 1.79 percent, at 1,276.34. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC fell 68.39 points, or 2.48 percent, at 2,686.89.

PUTTING THE GOLD DECLINE IN PERSPECTIVE


Today’s chart provides a long-term view of the gold market. As today’s chart illustrates, gold has been in a strong bull market since 2001. Today’s chart illustrates that the pace of that upward trend increased beginning in mid-2005. Following the financial crisis of late 2008, gold surged once again. More recently, gold has pulled back from resistance (red line) of its accelerated trend channel. However, gold has pulled back to and is currently testing what is two-year, intermediate support (see green dashed line) for the eighth time.
Notes:
- Does the gold rally continue or is the party over? The answer may surprise you. Find out now with the exclusive & highly regarded charts of Chart of the Day Plus.

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Friday, January 28, 2011

YIELD CURVE PREDICTS: 1% GDP GROWTH, BUT NO RECESSION

by Cullen Roche

“Continuing a recent trend, the yield curve became steeper over the past month, as long rates increased nearly 0.2 percent, and short rates inched up. The three-month Treasury bill rate moved up to 0.15 percent—just above November and December’s 0.14 percent. The ten-year rate rose to 3.36 percent, up from December’s 3.18 percent and well above November’s 2.89 percent. The slope rose 17 basis points (bp), staying above 300 bp, a full 46 bp above November’s 255 bp.
Projecting forward using past values of the spread and GDP growth suggests that real GDP will grow at about a 1.0 percent rate over the next year, the same projection as in November and December. Although the time horizons do not match exactly, this comes in on the more pessimistic side of other forecasts, although, like them, it does show moderate growth for .....



U.S. Commercial Real Estate Market Moves on Healthcare

by Marian Anthony

Growing concern with higher commercial vacancy in the U.S. real estate market continues to weaken confidence while defaults in the Commercial Mortgage-backed Securities Market (CMBS) increase.
President Obama’s new healthcare bill is now encouraging more investors back into the commercial Healthcare real estate market. Some have moved on the growing opportunity as aging baby-boomers fuel the increasing demand for more long-term care facilities.
Healthcare REITs (Real Estate Investment Trust) have been identified as the next “hot ticket” for speculators in the distressed U.S. ...

IS THE CONSUMER REBOUND SUSTAINABLE?

by Cullen Roche

“The story within the story was the resurrection of the American consumer who lifted his/her spending at a 4.4% annual rate. This is the strongest gain since the first quarter of 2006, when credit was flowing freely, unemployment of 4.5% was triggering sizeable organic wage growth and rallies in both equities and housing were generating personal wealth, at least on paper. It would be a bit dangerous to extrapolate what we just saw in the fourth quarter because the QE2 juice squeezed by Uncle Ben generated a sizeable wealth effect that helped pull down the savings rate from 5.9% in the third quarter to 5.4% in the fourth (it should NOT be lost on anyone that real consumer spending at +4.4% growth managed to more than double the comparatively sluggish 1.8% annualized increase in real disposable income). Strip out this non-recurring factor and real GDP growth would have come in closer to a ho-hum 2.8% annual rate last quarter. That actually is not really that impressive for a sixth quarter of post-recession recovery, when real GDP growth is typically chugging along at roughly ......

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Help! We’ve fallen and we can’t get up!

By Barry Ritholtz

Today seems to be the first day the major indices have fallen, and are unable to muster a rally.
It is still early — its only noon EST as I type this — but I don’t get a feel for the market’s ability to come charging back.  That’s no surprise, given the over-extended over bought condition we find ourselves in.
Note that the Nasdaq (QQQQ) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) are leading tot he downside.
Hence, the news flow may amount to little more than an opportunity to pullback, consolidate, and work off some excesses of recent weeks. We will have a better sense as the correction unfolds if this is a minor (8-12%) pullback, something less, or something more.
Stay tuned . . .
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