“The story within the story was the resurrection of the American consumer who lifted his/her spending at a 4.4% annual rate. This is the strongest gain since the first quarter of 2006, when credit was flowing freely, unemployment of 4.5% was triggering sizeable organic wage growth and rallies in both equities and housing were generating personal wealth, at least on paper. It would be a bit dangerous to extrapolate what we just saw in the fourth quarter because the QE2 juice squeezed by Uncle Ben generated a sizeable wealth effect that helped pull down the savings rate from 5.9% in the third quarter to 5.4% in the fourth (it should NOT be lost on anyone that real consumer spending at +4.4% growth managed to more than double the comparatively sluggish 1.8% annualized increase in real disposable income). Strip out this non-recurring factor and real GDP growth would have come in closer to a ho-hum 2.8% annual rate last quarter. That actually is not really that impressive for a sixth quarter of post-recession recovery, when real GDP growth is typically chugging along at roughly ......
Friday, January 28, 2011
Help! We’ve fallen and we can’t get up!
By Barry Ritholtz
Today seems to be the first day the major indices have fallen, and are unable to muster a rally.
It is still early — its only noon EST as I type this — but I don’t get a feel for the market’s ability to come charging back. That’s no surprise, given the over-extended over bought condition we find ourselves in.
Note that the Nasdaq (QQQQ) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) are leading tot he downside.
Hence, the news flow may amount to little more than an opportunity to pullback, consolidate, and work off some excesses of recent weeks. We will have a better sense as the correction unfolds if this is a minor (8-12%) pullback, something less, or something more.
Stay tuned . . .
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Deutsche Bank CEO: Bailout Risk Lurks for Hedge Funds
By: MoneyNews.com
Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann said unregulated financial companies such as hedge funds may pose a systemic risk to the economy if oversight isn’t increased.
“You have an unregulated area which becomes — as a consequence of all the regulatory changes — more and more important,” Ackermann, 62, said in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “You may one day wake up and realize that the systemic challenges are so big that you will have to bail out or at least help support the unregulated sector.”
Ackermann’s warning echoes comments made by former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, who said this week in Davos that regulators haven’t paid enough attention to problems that could emerge in “a large, less healthy buccaneer sector.” Hedge funds have dodged the brunt of new global banking regulation aimed at avoiding a repeat of the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression.
“If you separate utility banks from casino banking, you will one day realize that casino banks are also counterparties to corporations but also to other banks and to asset management and to governments,” Ackermann said yesterday. “It would be somewhat naïve to assume that if you have a strong regulated sector and leave the unregulated in the open, that you will never have systemic risk.”
Survivor Trading System - Trades of 27 January
Trades of Survivor System on 27 January. Real-time results are available at the following link: http://www.box.net/shared/5vajnzc4cp
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Survivor Trading System - Results of 26 January
Trades of Survivor System on 26 January. Real-time results are available at the following link: http://www.box.net/shared/5vajnzc4cp
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Survivor Trading System - Results of 25 January
I trades di Survivor System del 25 Gennaio. I risultati real-time sono a disposizione al seguente link: http://www.box.net/shared/5vajnzc4cp
Trades of Survivor System on 25 January. Real-time results are available at the following link: http://www.box.net/shared/
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